Welfare State, Tax Revenue, Tax Base, Abortion, Population Gains, Keynesian Policies, Communism and Capitalism

Posted by PITHOCRATES - January 22nd, 2013

Week in Review

Their Welfare Programs continued to Expand even while their Tax Revenue was Falling

Many of the world’s mature economies are having financial issues.  Including chronic deficits, growing debt and skyrocketing spending obligations.  The Eurozone has been mired in a sovereign debt crisis for years.  The UK is trying to slash billions from their costliest entitlement.  The National Health Service.  France tried to raise the top marginal tax rate to 75%.  Japan is spending twice their GDP and their aging population will require even more spending.  And in the United States Democrats and Republicans are getting ready for another round of debt ceiling debates.  To raise the debt ceiling once again.  To yet another record high.

What causes these problems?  A couple of things.  A growing welfare state.  And falling tax revenue.  Not because tax rates are too low.  But because they are too high.  Creating a business-unfriendly environment.  Reducing economic activity.  Which reduces tax revenue.  They further compound their problems with Keynesian economic policies.  Which include massive borrowings to pay for deficit spending.  And expanding the money supply.  Which devalues the currency.  This creates inflation.  Further reducing economic activity.

These countries have a spending problem.  Their welfare programs continued to expand even while their tax revenue was falling.  Often introducing new programs based on the best of economic times with the rosiest projections of continued economic good times.  But once a recession hits, and they always do when using Keynesian economic policies, these governments run massive deficits.  That said there is a revenue component to their financial problems.  Abortion.

An Expanding Welfare State needs an Expanding Population Growth Rate

To increase tax revenue you need to expand the tax base.  To get more taxpayers paying taxes.  And where do taxpayers come from?  Babies.  There is no other way to get a taxpayer.  Even with immigration.  Because those immigrants first have to be born.  So the more babies you have the more taxpayers there will be paying taxes.  The more abortions you have, though, the fewer taxpayers there will be paying taxes.  The following table summarizes population gains and abortions for the years 1970 through 1990 for 12 countries.

Sources: Historic, current and future population of Europe; Abortion statistics and other data;

These dates are important for had these abortions not happened they all would be in the workforce today.  Just to get an idea of what that means to tax revenue consider the United States.  During these 20 years there were 26.7 million abortions.  Assuming a median salary of $50,000 and 33.3% in federal taxes (18% effective federal income tax rate, 12.4% for Social Security taxes and 2.9% for Medicare) that comes to $444 billion in one year.  Or $4.44 trillion over ten years.  It may not have been enough to pay for the massive new spending of President Obama.  But it would have prevented the credit downgrade from S&P.  Who were looking for $4 trillion in spending cuts over ten years.

It’s these aborted taxpayers that are pressuring these welfare states.  For an expanding welfare state needs an expanding population growth rate.  And abortion doesn’t help populations grow.  And if the population doesn’t grow then tax revenue doesn’t grow.  In fact, if you divide the population gain by the number of abortions you can get a feel of a country’s financial health.  And their future health.

A Command Economy cannot Provide for the People like Laissez Faire Capitalism Can

Abortions reduce population gains.  So when you divide population gains by the number of abortions the higher the resulting number the better.  For higher population gains and fewer abortions mean more tax revenue.  The lower the number indicates a high level of abortions that reduces tax revenue.

Spain is one of the countries in trouble in the Eurozone.  With a rich Catholic history that frowns on abortion.  So it is no surprise to see such a large number when dividing population gains by abortions.  But their debt crisis is.  For this number indicates a lot of taxpayers.  Which Spain has.  Yet they have some serious financial problems.  Why?  Because they also have very high unemployment.  Their economic woes began with Keynesian policies keeping interest rates artificially low.  Creating a housing bubble.  And when it burst it created a very bad recession.  So having taxpayers is important.  But they also have to have jobs.  With some good economic policies (i.e., non-Keynesian policies) Spain should be able to rebound into an economic juggernaut.  For if all those taxpayers find employment they can reduce tax rates to very low levels.  Which will explode economic activity.

Greece went on a spending binge.  Including lavish spending for the 2004 Olympic games.  Their problem is a bloated public sector.  And a large welfare state.  That their private sector can no longer fund.  Like Spain Greece may be able to rebound with some sound economic policies (i.e., non-Keynesian policies).  A little privatization.  And a little weaning from the public teat.

At the other end you have the United Kingdom.  Whose abortions exceeded their population gain.  Which wasn’t much for 20 years.  They are currently going through a baby boom.  But it’s this baby dearth from 20-40 years earlier that is depressing tax revenue today.  Requiring those spending cuts in the NHS.  And higher tax rates on the fewer remaining taxpayers in the workforce.  Which, of course, leaves people with less spending money.  Further depressing the economy.

China’s economic miracle is not as miraculous as it once was.  And their Keynesian policies will catch up to them.  As they have with every other country using them.  Their authoritarian regime has been able to keep wages down to help their export economy.  And they have no social safety net despite a rapidly aging population.  Which they will have to take care of.  Eventually.  Either by expanding the money supply so the government can spend more money.  Which will create inflation and hurt economic activity.  Or they will have to raise taxes.  Which will also hurt economic activity.

China has had 171 million abortions from 1970 to 1990.  Which even exceeds the number of deaths in the Great Chinese Famine.  Not uncommon in a communist regime.  Survival.  As their command economy cannot feed or provide for the people like laissez-faire capitalism can.  In a command economy those abortions are seen as a good thing.  A kind thing.  For that’s fewer mouths to feed.  Hence China’s one-child policy.  While in laissez faire capitalist countries their children have obesity problems.  And look at these abortions and see loss tax revenue.

While China is enjoying prosperity in their eastern cities thanks to their export economy fueled by low wages little has changed for the hundreds of millions of peasants in the rural interior spaces.  Where famine is still a real concern.  Some will cite China as an example of out of control population growth.  Like locusts the people will consume all of the available resources.  And leave behind a scorched earth.  Of course what these people don’t understand is the power of laissez faire capitalism.  For across the water from China is Hong Kong.  An Island with no natural resources.  A barren rock.  Yet they were part of the British Empire.  They embraced-laissez faire capitalism.  And flourished while mainland China suffered under communism.  Hong Kong is one of the world’s strongest economies.  With some of the greatest population gains.  During these 20 years their population grew by 43.67%.  The greatest of these 12 countries.  While having the lowest number of abortions.  Yet despite having this massive population gain and few resources this crowded special administrative region (SAR) of the People’s Republic of China (since 1997) prospers.  Suffers no famine.  And is one of the best places in the world to live.

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Aging Populations cause Falling Revenue and Greater Spending Obligations in Japan and the United States

Posted by PITHOCRATES - January 5th, 2013

Week in Review

President Obama added $5.3 trillion in new debt in his first term.  Approximately the sum total of all debt added from George Washington to George H.W. Bush (in real dollars).  It took about 200 years to accumulate that massive amount of debt.  It only took President Obama 4 years.  Yet according to the Left we have a revenue problem.  Not a spending problem.  But when you add about 200 years of debt into only 4 years you have a spending problem.

In the recent fiscal cliff theatre the Democrats got a bipartisan compromise.  They got the higher tax rates they wanted.  And the Republicans gave them those higher tax rates.  The very meaning of bipartisan to the Democrats.  Unconditional surrender so they can get their way.  And now the total debt is around 103% of GDP.  Which means we owe as much as the nation produces in economic activity.  Meaning that we ain’t paying it down anytime soon.  And with our aging population things are only getting worse.  More workers are leaving the workforce consuming retirement and health care benefits than are entering the workforce to pay for them.  Which means the problem is only going to get a lot worse.

Eternal Keynesian optimists on the Left, though, like to point to Japan.  Whose total debt is about 230% of their GDP.  They say if Japan can get along with a debt of 230% of GDP then we have nothing to worry about.  Well, the Japanese are starting to worry (see Japan’s population logs record drop by AFP/fa posted 1/1/2013 on Channel News Asia).

Japan’s population logged a record drop in 2012, health ministry estimates showed on Tuesday, highlighting concerns that an ever-dwindling pool of workers is having to pay for a growing number of pensioners…

Japan is rapidly greying, with more than 20 percent of the population aged 65 or over — one of the highest proportions of elderly people in the world.

The country has very little immigration and any suggestion of opening its borders to young workers who could help plug the population gap provokes strong reactions among the public.

Japan has a lot to worry about.  And the last thing we want is to have their problem.  The Left understands this.  Which is one of the reasons they want to grant immunity to all those in the country illegally.  So they can tax them.  But when you’re buying votes by giving away free stuff you’re still going to have a spending problem no matter how much you increase revenue.  Especially when your spending has pushed the national debt past 100% of GDP.

As the population continues to age revenues will shrink.  This is the reality we have here (as well as what the Japanese are facing).  Adding a new entitlement, Obamacare, was the height of fiscal irresponsibility.  It will quickly push our debt up to Japanese levels.  Who will have a very painful day of reckoning in the not so distant future.  Higher spending obligations and falling revenues can only lead to one place.  And it isn’t a good place.  Just ask the Greeks.

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The UK is Holding off on Selling EU Carbon Permits as the EU is Holding off Taxing other Countries for their Spending

Posted by PITHOCRATES - November 17th, 2012

Week in Review

The Eurozone is wallowing in a sovereign debt crisis that just won’t end.  Caused by spending obligations made during good economic times.  On the assumption that those good economic times would last forever.  But they created a lot of that economic activity with expansionary monetary policy.  Keeping interest rates artificially low.  By expanding the money supply.  Encouraging consumers and businesses to borrow and spend.  Which they did.  Leaving them with massive amounts of debt.  And inflation.  Which they fought the only way you can fight inflation.  By raising interest rates.  And contracting the money supply.  Or, in other words, with a recession.  Which reduces tax revenues.  Forcing governments to borrow more to pay for these ever expanding spending obligations.  Which led to rising borrowing costs.  And debt crises.  Leaving these Eurozone countries starving for cash.

Enter the Emissions Trading Scheme.  Making high energy uses buy permits to exhaust carbon.  Ostensibly to reduce global warming.  But really just a massive wealth transfer from the private sector to the public sector.  To help those countries with debt crises to pay for their ever expanding spending obligations without having to govern responsibly.  So they can continue to pander and buy votes and advance their liberal agendas.  But there has been some push back.  In particular from other nations flying into the European Union (EU) airspace who don’t want to subsidize the irresponsible governing of the EU countries.  Because of possible retaliation (like China threatening to cancel their Airbus orders for new airplanes) the European Commission is delaying the implementation of their airline emissions law (see Britain says it may review carbon permit auctions for airlines by Nina Chestney posted 11/12/2012 on Reuters).

The UK government will review its forthcoming auctions of European Union carbon permits for the aviation sector when it gets more details from the European Commission about its plan to delay the bloc’s airline emissions law, a minister said.

The UK plans to hold two auctions of around 3.5 million EU carbon permits for the aviation sector on November 26 and December 10…

The EU Commission said on Monday it will conditionally put on hold its rule that all airlines must pay for their carbon emissions for flights to and from EU airports.

Why is the UK reviewing their auction of carbon permits?  Because these permits are basically new taxes for the airlines.  That the airlines will pass on to their passengers.  Raising the cost of flying.  Which, in turn, will make some people forgo flying.  Hurting the airline industry.  Further exasperating a weak economy.

Of course those in the Eurozone rioting against austerity would love to see the EU go ahead with taxing other nations for flying into their airspace.  Because they don’t like austerity.  And would love to pass on their costs to other nations’ taxpayers.  Something other nations’ taxpayers are none too keen on.  So it’s a mess.  And the Emissions Trading Scheme only compounds the problem.  As it does nothing to address the source of the problem.  Excessive spending obligations that these nations cannot afford.

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