Why the Deficit and the Debt Matter

Posted by PITHOCRATES - March 25th, 2013

Economics 101

Keynesian Economists say there is Nothing Wrong with Running a Deficit or a Growing National Debt

We had the sequester.  Before that it was the fiscal cliff.  Before that it was the debt ceiling debate.  We hear these things.  But it’s like water off a duck’s back.  It doesn’t sink in.  We hear but we don’t understand it.  In one ear and out the other.  In fact people are tired of hearing of how we go from one financial crisis to another.  Enough already the people say.  Enough.  Pity, really.  As there are some serious consequences to the decisions our politicians are poorly making.

Part of the problem is that these economic issues are difficult to relate to for average Americans just trying to take care of their families.  A trillion dollar deficit?  A debt reaching $16 trillion?  A lot of people don’t know the difference between the deficit and the debt.  Including many of our television news talking heads.  And then the sheer magnitude of the word ‘trillion’ is just difficult to fathom.  We know it’s big.  But no one uses it in their personal lives.  We know a $200 utility bill is expensive.  An $8,000 property tax bill is expensive.  A $40,000 car is expensive.  But a trillion dollar deficit?  It is hard to make a connection to the size of a trillion dollars.

Compounding the problem are all these Keynesian economists who say there is nothing wrong with running a deficit.  Or the growing national debt.  Despite the financial debt crisis in the Eurozone.  Where running a deficit and growing national debt have caused great problems.  But the Keynesians say that can never happen here.  Because our economy is so much larger.  And the U.S. can still print money.  So people don’t know what to believe.  The government and their economists sound like they understand this stuff.  While a lot of people don’t.  So the people who don’t are more inclined to believe those who sound like they understand this stuff.  Which makes it easier for the politicians who are making all of these horrible decisions to make even more of them.

Over time Interest Charges run up the Outstanding Balance on our Credit Cards

So to understand deficits and debt it would be better to bring it down to our level.  And once we understand it at our level then we can understand better what’s happening at the national level.  So let’s do that.  Let’s imagine a person earning $30,000 a year.  Or $2,500 monthly.  Let’s further assume this person’s earnings are not enough to support their lifestyle.  So they turn to their credit card each month for an additional $100 in spending.  Which is this person’s deficit.  The amount they spend over what they earn.  Or money they spend that they don’t have.  So they charge it.  For this example we’ll assume a credit card with a 24% annual percentage rate.  In the following table we crunch these numbers for 120 months.  Or ten years.

Personal Deficit Spending and Cummulative Debt R2

The columns in the table are fairly self explanatory.  Each month we start with $2,500.  We start borrowing money in month 1 so there is no interest in the first month.  We subtract the interest from the monthly income to arrive at income less the interest charge on the credit card.  Our spending budget each month is $2,600.  Requiring $100 in credit card purchases in the first month.  Each month this increases by the amount of interest charged each month.  The last column is a running total of the credit card balance.

Over time the interest charges run up the outstanding balance on the credit card.  Because we are paying interest on both our purchases and our interest.  So as time goes by this increases our credit card balance at an increasing rate. Soon the interest charges take a larger percentage of our monthly income.  So much so that we need to borrow more and more to maintain our current level of spending.  The interest charge on the 120th month equals 38% of our monthly income.  Chances are that it would never get this bad as we would be unable to make our monthly payment long before the 120th month.  And with an outstanding debt approaching our annual income we probably would have filed for bankruptcy protection long ago.  For at these interest rates it wouldn’t take long before that debt grew beyond our ability ever to pay it back.

Deficit and the Debt Matter because Income is Limited

We can see this better if we graph these numbers.  We can see the cumulative debt growing at a greater rate over time.  Just as does the percentage of our personal income going solely to paying the interest on our debt.  Truly wasted money.  Spending money for things we purchased long ago.  And if we spent it on restaurants and vacations we have nothing tangible to show for this.  Nothing we can sell to get our money back.  Just interest payments that seem to go on forever and ever.  For something that gave us a few hours or days of pleasure.  Which is the worst kind of debt to have.  As there is no way to pay it down other than with current earnings.  Meaning we have to make sacrifices today and tomorrow for spending we did long, long ago.

Personal Income Debt and Interest as Percent of Income R1

On the chart we have a horizontal line for monthly income.  And one for annual income.  We can see that it only takes 21 months for our credit card balance to exceed our monthly income.  Not even two years.  But only 1.9% of our monthly income is going to pay for interest on the debt.  Which doesn’t sound that bad.  So we keep charging.  Just after three years of doing this we break $100 in interest expense.  Requiring 4.2% of our earnings to go to pay the interest on the debt.  It only takes another 2 years to break $200 in interest expense (8.4% of earnings).  It only takes another year to bring the interest charge to $300 (12.3% of earnings).  In 99 months the interest charge breaks $600 (24% of earnings).  And the total outstanding credit card debt is now greater than our annual earnings. Making it very unlikely that we’ll ever be able to pay this balance down.

Anyone who charged a little too much on their credit cards knows what this feels like.  And what those phone calls from collection agencies are like.  Not good.  Anyone who charged anywhere near this example no doubt brought great stress into their lives.  They might have lost their house.  Their retirement savings.  Their kids’ college funds.  Or had no choice but to file a personal bankruptcy.  But when we run our debt up this high there comes a point where we cut up the credit cards.  Making a serious cut in our spending.  Because that’s all we can do.  We can’t just earn a lot more money.  And we can’t print money.  If we could do either we would not have a debt problem in the first place.

This is where average Americans and the federal government differ.  Average people have no choice but to be responsible.  While the federal government can allow the problem to grow and grow.  For they can arbitrarily raise their income.  By raising taxes.  And they can print money.  Unfortunately for average Americans both of these options make life worse for them.  Raising taxes makes us cut our personal spending as if we ran up our credit cards.  Forcing us to get by on less.  And printing money causes inflation.  Raising prices.  Which, of course, forces us to get by on less.  This is why the deficit and the debt matter.  For income is limited.  Whether it’s ours.  Or the federal government’s.  And when you spend more than you have more money goes to paying interest on the debt.  Which is money pulled out of the economy and thrown away.  The ultimate cost of spending money you don’t have.  Money thrown away.  And, of course, potential bankruptcy.

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Australia taxes their Rich People far more than the US but it’s still Not Enough to Pay for their Welfare State

Posted by PITHOCRATES - November 10th, 2012

Week in Review

With President Obama’s reelection some are saying it is a mandate to raise taxes on the rich.  Because he said all along that he wanted to tax the rich more.  And he won reelection.  Ergo, ipso facto, mandate.  But we should be careful about raising taxes.  For it seems our government is always raising taxes.  Or demanding that we need to raise taxes.  So the question is where does all this tax-raising end?  A new carbon tax?  A GST?  Well, Australia has both.  Yet they’re still talking about raising taxes (see States to eye online shopping for GST boost – Sydney Morning Herald posted 11/10/2012 on Canberra Hub).

State treasurers will this week consider calls to cut the GST-free threshold for goods bought from overseas online stores, in an attempt to bolster flagging revenues from the tax.

Under current rules, products costing less than $1000 that are privately purchased from overseas are not subject to GST, sparking complaints domestic retailers face an uneven playing field.

State governments – which receive the revenue raised by the GST – also miss out on about $600 million a year due to the threshold, and this foregone revenue is projected to rise as online shopping takes off…

NSW Treasurer Mike Baird, who wants the GST-free threshold to $30, will raise the issue as a “key consideration” at the meeting, a spokeswoman for Mr Baird said…

The simplest way to resolve the situation was to require foreign retailers selling into Australia to charge GST, he said.

Mr Greiner has also called for a debate on raising the GST’s rate from 10 per cent or broadening its base, but this was ruled out on Monday by the Treasurer, Wayne Swan.

Australia’s top marginal tax rate is 45% on incomes over $180,001 ($187,021 US).  They tax companies at 30%.  And capital gains, after some discounting and adjustments, they tax as income.  Whereas in the US the top marginal tax rate is 35% on incomes over $388,350.  The corporate tax rate is 35%.  And a capital gains tax of 15%.  Apart from the higher corporate tax rate, the Australians tax individuals far higher in Australia than the US taxes their individuals.  And yet it’s still not enough.

On top of these higher tax rates are additional taxes.  Like the carbon tax.  And the goods and service tax (GST).  Which they are currently discussing ways of increasing to generate more tax revenue.  There’s an important lesson to learn here.  No matter how much government taxes their people it will never be enough.  For the unsustainable rising costs of a welfare state for an aging population will always exceed the tax revenue from an aging population.  Higher tax rates and new taxes are inevitable.  And for those states with national health care, cost cutting, longer wait times and service rationing are also inevitable.  Because however much they tax it will never be enough.

This is the future in America.  Because we’ve just added Obamacare even though we’re already suffering record budget deficits under the Obama administration.  And 4 years of anemic economic growth.  Which will only become more anemic with higher tax rates.  And new taxes.

The only way a state will ever pay for its welfare state is if they have a population that is getting younger such that there are always more people entering the workforce than leaving it.  Or by reducing the size of the welfare state to a size the current population growth rate can fund.  So the United States has two paths to solvency.  Start having a heck of a lot babies.  Or start slashing state benefits.  Or both.  Which would be a third option.  But the current option, increasing state spending with a declining birthrate, will not work.  No matter how much you tax rich people.

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FT114: “One of the most effective ways to get privilege is to force fairness on others.” -Old Pithy

Posted by PITHOCRATES - April 20th, 2012

Fundamental Truth

Voters are so Greedy and Selfish with their Hard-Earned Money that they’re not going to Vote to be Subjugated

History is strewn with people oppressing others to gain privilege for themselves.  Kings, emperors and nobles were always a small minority of civilizations.  But they had the power.  And the wealth.  While the masses suffered abject poverty and went hungry.  Or suffered through famines.    And died.  With early civilizations this was just the way of life.  Because there was no middle class.  No free market capitalism.  And no rule of law.  Life was for the most part subsistence farming.  Where most ate only what they grew.  While the kings, emperors and nobles enjoyed lots of food and drink.  Even enjoyed having a little fun.  Unlike the impoverished masses.  Having privilege made life better.  Which is why the privileged worked hard to keep it.  By forcing others to work hard to provide that better life for them.

But times change.  Privileged ruling classes fall.  And middle classes rise.  Creating vibrant economies.  And representative government.  Then one day the privileged find that they are no longer privileged.  That wealth isn’t automatically theirs.  Instead it belongs to the people who earn that wealth.  And if the once-privileged want wealth then they, too, have to work to get it.  So they, too, can have nice things.  And that they can only have these things if they earned enough to afford them.  Which is a great problem if you don’t want to work.  Don’t have any ability to earn a high income.  Or if you have a feeling of entitlement.  Like in days of yore.  Where you didn’t need anything but a good last name to live the good life.  On the backs of those who didn’t live the good life.

Feelings of entitlement don’t die, though.  They don’t go away once the middle class starts sharing the wealth.  Well, not so much sharing it but earning it.  And keeping it.  Instead of giving it to a privileged ruling class.  Which poses a problem for those who aspire to join a ruling class.  Especially now that we have those pesky elections.  Because voters are so greedy and selfish with their hard-earned money that they’re not going to vote to be subjugated.  They’re not going to vote in a privileged ruling class so they can live like royalty.  While those who pay for that royal lifestyle don’t.  ‘Vote for me so I can live better than you’ is just not a winning political platform.  So that’s why politicians lie.

The Privileged Elite uses Class Warfare to take other People’s Wealth

What do you need to live a privileged life?  Lots of money.  No secret here.  But the secret is how to get that money.  In particular, how do those who don’t want to work or have no talent or have no ability create wealth?  Here’s the secret.  They don’t create wealth.  They take wealth.  By going into government.

Only government has the power to tax.  Which can be a great source of wealth.  Other people’s wealth.  Which is any privileged class’ second favorite kind of wealth.  Second only to the wealth they already took from others.  Because that’s what they want.  Other people’s wealth.  And they’ve found a clever way of taking it.  By making the world a fairer place.  And who’s against fairness?  They’re going to make sure that the poor and children have access to food and affordable housing.  And who’s against the poor?  The children?  You’d have to be a pretty vicious, heartless bastard to be against the children.  And the poor.  They’re going to make sure that women have access to reproductive health care.  For who hates women?  I’ll tell you who.  Anyone that opposes raising taxes.  They hate women.  Children.  The poor.  For the world is full of haters.  And just who are these haters?  Aanyone that earns a lot of money and doesn’t want to pay higher taxes.  These people hate anyone not as wealthy as they are.  Because they hate fairness.  And paying their fair share.  Because they’re greedy.  And hate women and children.  And puppies, too.

This is the way the privileged take other people’s wealth.  Class warfare.  And it’s very effective.  By being the party of the poor, disadvantaged, children, women and puppies, they’re kind and benevolent.  With other people’s money, of course.  But those people are evil so it’s okay.  People hate them.  But they like their kind government benefactors.  Who are looking out for their best interests.  Not rich people.  Or corporate profits.  No, our kind government benefactors make sure those greedy rich people and corporations pay their fair share.  Because that’s all that they want.  It’s all anyone wants.  To be fair.

North Korea is pretty much at the End of the Fairness Road

Later incarnations of the privileged ruling class used the fairness approach to give themselves a better life.  While oppressing their people.  Even killing them.  Through famine.  Or deliberate acts of violence.  All in the name of fairness.  And nothing better epitomizes this than communism.  Where everyone was equal.  Brothers.  Comrades.  There were no profits.  No capitalism.  No competitiveness.  No.  Everyone was equal.  They paid everyone the same.  They dressed everyone the same.  They housed everyone the same.  They fed everyone the same.  Very little.  For one thing you never saw in a communist country was obesity.  Instead you probably heard the rumbling of tummies as most people were hungry all of the time.  There was no income inequality.  No gender inequality.  No.  In communism they had nothing but equality.  Life was fair.  Because no one had anything more than anyone else.  As they perfectly distributed the misery and poverty equally among the impoverished masses.

That was for the masses.  It was quite a different thing for the privileged ruling elite.  Those in the party apparatchik.  And the inner party members themselves.  Who were more equal than others.  These people dressed better.  They had better housing.  Even cars.  They ate better.  Some so well that they grew obese.  North Korea suffers from recurring famines to this day but Kim Jong IL had a bit of a weight problem.  As his son does.  Kim Jong-un.  No, life is very good for the privileged ruling elite.  And hell for those living under them.  Who the ruling elite let die of hunger.  And send to concentration camps if they dare speak of their displeasure.  For only under communism is life fair.  And they just can’t risk the unhappy masses to spoil it for the privileged few.

North Korea is pretty much at the end of the fairness road.  The country is so poor and impoverished and hungry that people will risk their lives to try and escape this land of fairness.  To get somewhere that isn’t so fair.  Like South Korea.  Where they have capitalism.  And inequality.  Where someone can come with nothing, work hard and earn a better life.  Allowing them to pay for housing.  And put food in their rumbling bellies.  For a fair and oppressive government surely cannot.  All they can do is create great inequality between the people and the ruling class.  Far greater than that between the rich and poor in any capitalist country.  For the poor in countries like the UK, Canada and the United States are living far better than anyone outside the ruling elite in North Korea.  This is where the fairness road ends.  But it starts with class warfare.  Where a privileged few live the good life through high taxes.  Taxes they use to force fairness on others.  While those at the top manage that fairness.  Skimming a lot off the top of those taxes for themselves.  And what’s left they spend on the poor, disadvantaged, children, women and puppies.  Just enough to make sure the people love their very rich and wealthy government benefactors.  So they can win the next election.  At least while they still have to deal with those pesky elections.

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Rich Doctors say Tax Them More to Help Fund the Canadian ‘Obamacare’ System that Makes them Rich

Posted by PITHOCRATES - March 25th, 2012

Week in Review

People distrust rich people.  That’s why they want to tax them more.  Because they have more than enough money.  No matter what they say about earning their money or how they invest their wealth to create jobs.  People don’t want to hear any of this.  For they ‘know’ that these rich fat cats are lying just to keep from having to ‘share’ their wealth.  But whenever a rich guy says ‘tax us rich people more’ everyone hangs on to their every last word.  For if they are talking about raising taxes on the rich then these are not your typical rich.  They’re the good kind.  Like these doctors in Canada (see Tax us more, doctors urge (Are the lawyers listening?) by Michael Babad posted 3/22/2012 on The Globe and Mail).

A group of doctors is taking a page from Warren Buffett’s tax-the-rich call, urging the Canadian and Ontario governments to tax higher-income earners more…

Doctors for Fair Taxation plan to announce their scheme in Toronto this afternoon, calling for additional taxes on people earning more than $100,000. You’d be hit with an additional 1 per cent if you earn between $100,000 and $170,000, 2 per cent if you earn up to $640,000, and 3 per cent for up to $1.85-million. Above that it would be 6 per cent.

“We feel that this is a moral argument,” Dr. Michael Rachlis, who founded the group that so far boasts more than 50 physicians, told The Canadian Press.

“We cannot talk about throwing people out of work and cutting needed programs for people,” said Dr. Rachlis, an associate professor at the University of Toronto.

Wow.  Sounds very selfless, doesn’t it?  These rich guys asking to be taxed more to help their country?  At least on the surface it does.  But the question that begs to be asked is what are they spending so much money on that they have to raise taxes?  And when you learn what that is it puts these doctors into a different light.

Here’s an article from 2010.  About two years ago.  Talking about a budget crisis.  Where spending is out of control.  Spending that the Canadians just can’t sustain.  And where is this out of control spending?  Why, it just happens to be in the industry that pays these doctors.  Canada’s single-payer health care system.  Talk about coincidences.  These doctors asking rich people everywhere to help pay the nation’s bills.  Where the biggest bill is the one that pays these doctors (see Soaring costs force Canada to reassess health model by Claire Sibonney posted 3/31/2010 on Reuters).

Pressured by an aging population and the need to rein in budget deficits, Canada’s provinces are taking tough measures to curb healthcare costs, a trend that could erode the principles of the popular state-funded system.

Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, kicked off a fierce battle with drug companies and pharmacies when it said earlier this year it would halve generic drug prices and eliminate “incentive fees” to generic drug manufacturers.

British Columbia is replacing block grants to hospitals with fee-for-procedure payments and Quebec has a new flat health tax and a proposal for payments on each medical visit — an idea that critics say is an illegal user fee.

And a few provinces are also experimenting with private funding for procedures such as hip, knee and cataract surgery.

It’s likely just a start as the provinces, responsible for delivering healthcare, cope with the demands of a retiring baby-boom generation. Official figures show that senior citizens will make up 25 percent of the population by 2036.

Proponents of national health care in America blame the private health insurers, the pharmaceuticals and the hospitals for out of control health care costs.  What they say we need is a system like Canada.  Where they put people before profits.  And yet here they are.  The Canadians.  With a health care system suffering from out of control costs.  Which they are trying to fix with higher taxes.  Additional fees.  Even a little Americanization (that is, privatization).  Makes you wonder why we’re going forward with Obamacare while the Canadians are finding that type of a system is unsustainable.  Especially when our retiring baby boomers outnumber their retiring baby boomers. 

Canada, fretting over budget strains, wants to prune its system, while the United States, worrying about an army of uninsured, aims to create a state-backed safety net.

Healthcare in Canada is delivered through a publicly funded system, which covers all “medically necessary” hospital and physician care and curbs the role of private medicine. It ate up about 40 percent of provincial budgets, or some C$183 billion ($174 billion) last year.

Spending has been rising 6 percent a year under a deal that added C$41.3 billion of federal funding over 10 years.

But that deal ends in 2013, and the federal government is unlikely to be as generous in future, especially for one-off projects.

Wow.  Look at that.  Almost half of provincial budgets pay for the ‘free’ health care of Canadians.  Which is causing budget deficits at the provincial level.  And at the national level.  Well, up until 2013, that is.  When the national government is going to address their budget deficits by cutting their health care payments to the provinces.  Increasing the provincial budget deficits in the process.  Leaving the provincial governments to tax and spend more.  Or ration care and cut spending more.  Including doctor pay.  Could this have anything to do with those selfless physicians asking that their government tax the rich more?  Perhaps.

Brian Golden, a professor at University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Business, said provinces are weighing new sources of funding, including “means-testing” and moving toward evidence-based and pay-for-performance models.

“Why are we paying more or the same for cataract surgery when it costs substantially less today than it did 10 years ago? There’s going to be a finer look at what we’re paying for and, more importantly, what we’re getting for it,” he said.

Other problems include trying to control independently set salaries for top hospital executives and doctors and rein in spiraling costs for new medical technologies and drugs.

Ontario says healthcare could eat up 70 percent of its budget in 12 years, if all these costs are left unchecked…

The province has introduced legislation that ties hospital chief executive pay with the quality of patient care and says it wants to put more physicians on salary to save money.

In a report released last week, TD Bank said Ontario should consider other proposals to help cut costs, including scaling back drug coverage for affluent seniors and paying doctors according to quality and efficiency of care.

So the power of government inserted into the health care system has done nothing to lower the cost of medical procedures in Canada.  Makes you scratch your head, doesn’t it?  Because the proponents of Obamacare say that’s exactly what the power of government can do.  But in practice it has failed to do what these theorists say it can do.  Cut costs.  Through bureaucratic management.  And ‘turning of the screws’ on the medical device and drug manufacturers.  Despite this very practice NOT working in Canada.  Which means that the proponents of Obamacare think the Canadian bureaucrats simply aren’t smart enough to make their health care system work efficiently.  That the system of government-managed health care is a flawed system when it comes to costs and efficiency.  Or that government-managed health care is not about costs or efficiency.  But about the bureaucracy itself.  The control and power it offers the politicians.  And the votes it can buy them.

“Many of the advances in healthcare and life expectancy are due to the pharmaceutical industry so we should never demonize them,” said U of T’s Golden. “We need to ensure that they maintain a profitable business but our ability to make it very very profitable is constrained right now.”

Scotia Capital’s Webb said one cost-saving idea may be to make patients aware of how much it costs each time they visit a healthcare professional. “(The public) will use the services more wisely if they know how much it’s costing,” she said.

Wait a minute.  To fix the government-managed system they need to make the patients aware of the costs so they can choose wisely?  There’s a name for such a system.  We call it capitalism.  The very thing missing from government-managed health care.  And the very reason why government-managed systems (the Canadian health care system, the American Medicare/Medicaid programs, the UK’s National Health Service, etc.) fail to control costs.  And why Obamacare will fail to control costs.  Because they exclude the one thing that controls costs best from government-managed systems.  Capitalism.  Where people make spending decisions based on cost.  Which will never happen when someone other than the patient pays for the costs for the medical services a patient receives.  For no one ever asks ‘how much’ when they’re not paying the bill.

So when a rich doctor says to tax the rich more is this selfless?  Or selfish?  You decide.

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Government Bonds, Deficits, Debt, Interest and Inflation

Posted by PITHOCRATES - January 16th, 2012

Economics 101

Unlike Corporate Borrowing, Government Borrowing does not Translate into Consumer Goods and Services

When corporations need large sums of money to finance their businesses they issue stocks and bonds.  Investors respond by buying their stocks and bonds.  By loaning the business their money they are investing into these businesses.  Giving them capital to create more things to sell.  Thus stimulating the economy.  Because this investment translates into more consumer goods and services.  That consumers will ultimately buy.

When they offer these goods and services at prices consumers will pay the business does well.  As do the consumers.  Who are able to use their money to buy stuff they want.  So consumers do well.  Corporations do well.  And the investors do well.  For a corporation doing well maintains the value of their investments.  Everyone wins.  Unlike when the government enters the bond market.  For when they do there are some winners and, unfortunately, some losers.

Governments issue bonds when they spend more money than they collect in taxes.  They borrow instead of raising taxes because they know raising taxes reduces economic activity.  Which they want to avoid.  Because less economic activity means less tax revenue.  Which would make the original problem worse.  So like a corporation they have a financing need.  Unlike a corporation, though, the money they borrow will not translate into more consumer goods and services.  They will spend it inefficiently.  Reward political friends.  But mostly they will just pay for past spending.  In mature countries deficits and debt have grown so large that some governments are even borrowing to pay the interest on their debt.

Investors like Government Bonds because Government has the Power to Tax

When the government sells bonds it raises the borrowing costs for businesses.  Because their corporate bonds have to compete with these government bonds.  Corporations, then, pay a higher interest rate on their bonds to attract investors away from the government bonds.  Interest is a cost of business.  Which they add to the sales price of their goods and services.  Meaning the consumer ultimately pays these higher interest costs.  Worse, if a corporation can’t get financing at a reasonable interest rate they may not borrow.  Which means they won’t grow their business.  Or create new jobs.

As government debt grows they sell more and more bonds.  Normally not a problem for investors.  Because investors like government bonds.  (What we call sovereign debt.  Because it is the debt of sovereign states.)  Because government has the power to tax.  So investors feel confident that they will get their interest payments.  And that they will get back their principal.  Because the government can always raise taxes to service this debt.  And raise further funds to redeem their bonds.

But there is a downside for investors.  Too much government debt makes them nervous.  Because there is something governments can do that businesses can’t.  Governments can print money.  And there is the fear that if a government’s debt is so great and they have to pay higher and higher interest rates on their sovereign debt to attract investors that they may just start printing money.  Inflate the money supply.  By printing money to pay investors.  Sounds good if you don’t understand the consequences of printing money.  But ‘inflating the money supply’ is another way of saying inflation.  Where you have more dollars chasing the same amount of goods and services.

When Corporations Fail and go Bankrupt they don’t Increase Consumer Prices or Cause Inflation

Think of it this way.  The existing value of all available goods and services equals the amount of money in circulation.  When you increase the money supply it doesn’t change the amount of goods and services in the economy.  But it still must equal the amount of money in circulation.  So the dollar must now be worth less.  Because more of them still add up to the same value of goods and services.  That is, by printing more money they depreciate the dollar.  Make it worth less.  And if the dollar is worth less it will take more of them to buy the same things.  Causing consumer prices to rise.

Worse, inflation reduces the value of bonds.  When they depreciate the dollar the money locked into these long-term investments shrink in value.  And when people get their money back they can’t buy as much with it as they could before they bought these long-term investments.  Meaning they lost purchasing power while the government had their money.  Which gives investors a negative return on their investment.  And if a person invested their retirement into these bonds they will have less purchasing power in their retirement.  Because a depreciated dollar shrinks their savings.  And increases consumer prices.  So retirees are especially hard hit by inflation.

So excessive government borrowing raises consumer prices.  By making corporations compete for investment capital.  And by causing inflation.  Whereas excessive corporate borrowing does not.  They either provide goods and services at prices consumers willingly pay.  Or they fail and go bankrupt.  Hurting no one but their private investors.  And their employees who lose their jobs.  Sad, but at least their failure does not increase consumer prices.  Or cause inflation.

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FT96: “The Left uses propaganda more effectively than the Right uses the truth.” -Old Pithy

Posted by PITHOCRATES - December 16th, 2011

Fundamental Truth

Liberals lie because only about 20% of the People are Liberal Democrats

Politicians lie.  On both sides of the aisle.  Democrats lie because they always want to raise our taxes.  And campaigning to raise your taxes just doesn’t win a lot of votes.  So they lie.  Republicans lie, too.  Especially those that want to act like Democrats.  And join the Washington elite where you go to the best of parties and rub shoulders with the best of A-list celebrities.

So that’s why politicians lie.  To fool you into voting for them.  So they can live a far, far better life than you can ever imagine.  Some have grown pretty adept at it.  In particular liberal Democrats.  Who have taken the lie and elevated it to pure party propaganda.   Again, because they have too.  With only about 20% of the people being liberal Democrats, there aren’t enough people out there buying what they’re selling.  So they have to lie about what they’re selling.

And what, exactly, are they selling?  Privilege.  For themselves.  And their friends.  Which they give themselves after winning elections.  Power, control and money.  The usual things a privileged class covets.  Like in the good old days.  In the Old World.  Where a good last name set you apart from the rabble.  And let you live the good life without working.

The more Wretched and Impoverished the Poor get the Better it is for Big Government

Today’s aristocracy is Big Government.  For those in it have power, control and money.  Just like a Baron in medieval Europe.  Except for one thing.  This nobility never has to put on armor and mount his steed and fight for the king.  So it’s even better.  Of course, in the Old World, there were oaths of fealty.  The price of privilege was the possibility of fighting, even dying, for your king.  A liberal Democrat has no such thing to fear.  Hell, they can break the law even and nine times out of ten they’ll get away with it.  Because their kind takes care of their own.  And doesn’t let a little thing like the law get in the way of their good life.

So how does one get to live better than everyone else?  Even being above the law at times?  Simple.  You champion the little guy.  The poor.  The downtrodden.  Those at the bottom of the ladder.  You take care of these people.  At least, you say you are.  By expanding the size of government to, say, alleviate poverty.  Then you raise taxes and expand government again and again.  And again.  And because you do this with the best of intentions no one ever points out that everything you’ve done has failed.  There’s still poverty.  In fact, it seems that every year more people are living below the poverty line.  At least according to government statistics.  Or should I say Big Government statistics?  Convenient, yes?  A little of putting the fox in charge of the henhouse, isn’t it?

Of course, that’s the plan.  Because if you got rid of poverty you’d put Big Government out of a job.  I mean, if everyone was living happily ever what would you need them for?  Happiness is not good for Big Government.  That’s right, the more wretched and impoverished the poor get the better it is for government programs that ‘care’ for them.  And spend more money on them.  Which means more taxes, more control and more positions within the new aristocracy for more of their own.

JFK and Ronald Reagan were both Tax-Cutting Supply-Siders

To keep raising taxes and to keep creating new government programs you have to demonize tax cuts and limited government.  Which is important because history has shown that everyone lives better with lower taxes and a more limited government.  Except, of course, the new aristocracy.

Liberals refer to the Kennedy White House as Camelot.  They absolutely loved JFK.  But they carefully guard his legacy.  Why?  JFK was a tax-cutter.  He believed in supply-side economics.  What the liberal Democrats dismiss snidely as trickle-down economics.  But Kennedy’s tax cuts worked.  They caused an economic boom.  Which the Left is very hush-hush about.  Because they can’t have their hero known as a tax-cutter.  But they have no problem belittling another Kennedy-esque tax-cutter.  Ronald Reagan.

Reagan cut the top marginal tax rate.  The Big Government liberals called him mad.  Out of touch.  Said he hated the poor.  And wanted to starve government programs ‘vital’ for the poor while rewarding rich people.  But like Kennedy, his cut in the tax rates caused an economic boom.  And tax receipts (tax money collected by the IRS) nearly doubled.  None of which was supposed to happen according to the liberals.  So they lied about it.  Said, “yes, there was increased economic activity, but at what cost?  Ronald Reagan’s tax cuts gave us huge deficits that exploded the federal debt.”  Yes, there were huge deficits.  But that’s beside the point.  The cut in the top marginal rate nearly doubled tax receipts.  That’s the key point.  The Reagan tax cuts worked.  The government just spent this new tax revenue faster than they could collect it.

Liberals are such Good Liars that few know the Successful Track Record of Tax Cuts

Cuts in tax rates have a successful track record.  That’s fact.  The Republicans could run on this truth.  But they do such a pathetic job in telling the truth that no one knows about this successful track record.  The liberal democrats, on the other hand, lie through their teeth about this record.  And they’re so good at lying that it’s what most people believe.  Tax cuts explode the deficit.  Grow the debt.  Take money away from the poor.  Gives it to the rich.  While the poor and downtrodden wait for all that wealth to trickle down to them.  But it never comes.  All lies.  But told so well that it’s what most people believe.

JFK was a tax cutter.  A lot like Ronald Reagan.  There were others.  And they all proved that tax cuts increase economic activity.  Which is always good.  Because more economic activity means more jobs.  And more tax receipts.  Which is bad for a caring and nurturing Big Government.  Because if free market capitalism can do this then there is no need for Big Government.  And this is something the new aristocracy just can’t have.

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The Supercommittee Succeeds in Preventing Deficit Reduction without Raising Taxes

Posted by PITHOCRATES - November 27th, 2011

Week in Review

The supercommittee failed.  Deadlocked over higher taxes.  What a surprise.  And by surprise I mean it’s what everyone expected.  Because it never had anything to do with deficit reduction.  It was just yet another opportunity for Democrats to raise taxes.  And when they failed it was yet another opportunity to blame Republican intransigence.  While all the time refusing to budge from their demand for new taxes (see Supercommittee Failed, and Spending Is Still the Problem by Curtis Dubay posted 11/25/2011 on The Foundry).

Overspending, especially on entitlements such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, is the cause of our debt problem.

Higher taxes are unnecessary because there is enough revenue flowing into Washington as long as Congress holds spending to historical levels. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), with all current tax policies, including the Bush tax cuts, tax revenue will surpass its historical average as a share of the economy in a decade. And should the economy break the shackles of growth-impeding Obama policies faster than CBO anticipates, tax revenues will exceed that mark much sooner.

On the other hand, in 2021 the federal government will spend 26 percent of the economy, well in excess of its historical average of 20 percent. And it will keep growing on this trajectory, primarily because of the growth in entitlements. The data is clear. We have a spending problem – not a taxing problem.

They’re forecasting tax revenue at record amounts.  Yet it’s not enough.  It’s never enough.  Why?  Because the government spends it faster than they can collect it.  And that’s the problem.

Advocates of raising taxes often resort to the argument that debt reduction requires spending cuts and tax increases. But they’re merely revealing their preference for bigger government. Higher taxes lead to bigger government because Congress always spends the extra revenue it raises. The new taxes never go to deficit reduction. That’s why any deal that offers spending cuts in exchange for tax hikes is fundamentally unbalanced – despite the president’s claims.

Higher taxes would go to pay for the spending increases that President Obama and his allies foisted upon the country – including stimulus spending, Obamacare, and a host of other big government programs. Unless they’re reformed, entitlement programs would also devour new tax revenue as more baby boomers retire.

Presidents Reagan and George H.W. Bush learned the tax-and-spend lesson the hard way. They agreed to deals that were supposed to cut spending and raise taxes. While the tax hikes became permanent law, succeeding Congresses were under no obligation to abide by the agreed-upon spending levels and quickly undid them. The same would be true today if Congress strikes a similar deal.

How to you get a deficit?  By spending more than you collect in taxes.  Note the word ‘spending’.  That’s key.  Because if you don’t spend more than you collect in taxes you don’t have deficits.  Record lows in tax revenue didn’t cause Barack Obama’s record deficits.  Record government spending caused those record deficits.  Again, spending is key.  Because you have to overspend to get a deficit.

This isn’t chicken and egg stuff.  Spending clearly came first.  Then deficits.  So the logical and rational way to deficit reduction is to cut spending.  Not to raise taxes.  Because raising taxes just supports further overspending.  And you know they will.  Because they always do.  Because you don’t buy votes with deficit reduction.  You buy votes with spending.

Which is why the supercommittee failed.  Because it was supposed to fail.  If the full House couldn’t agree to spending cuts neither could a supercommittee.  Because they all report to the same leadership.  This was just theater to raise the debt ceiling.  And a delaying tactic by the Democrats who hoped they could turn public opinion into favoring tax hikes.

So now what?  I’m guessing more lies.  And more theater.  At least until 2012.  When the curtain finally falls on this tragic comedy.

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Japan Raising their Consumption Tax may not have Caused their 1997-98 Economic Slump but it sure didn’t Help

Posted by PITHOCRATES - November 20th, 2011

Week in Review

Poor Japan.  Always used as the example of what not to do (see Two things to remember about Japan posted 11/14/2011 on The Economist).

Between 1994 and 2008 American GDP grew 3% a year while Japan’s grew 1.1%… Japan’s working-age population at that time began a long decline, shrinking 0.4% per year over the period while America’s grew 1.2% according to the OECD. That 1.6 point differential can explain most of the difference in growth.

This means that the Japanese population was aging more than the American population.  More people growing older and retiring.  Pulling out of the workforce.  And maintained by the taxes paid by the decreasing number of those still working.  Similar to the projections in the U.S. about Social Security going bankrupt for the same reasons.  Only Japan appears to be further down that road than America.  Which means things will only get worse in America.  If we keep doing what the Japanese are doing.

In April, 1997, the government raised Japan’s consumption tax. That is now routinely cited as a cautionary tale against premature fiscal tightening since it was followed by a steep recession.  But a closer examination suggests the tax increase alone cannot explain the length and depth of the 1997-98 slump… In July, Thailand devalued, touching off the Asian crisis, a major negative for Japanese exports. Then, in November, a series of banks and investment banks collapsed: Sanyo Securities, Hokkaido Takushoku Bank, Yamaichi Securities and Tokuyo City Bank.

This is what happens when you play by Keynesian economics.  First of all you’re in a tax and spend mentality.  And this tax and spend mentality is what destroys economies.

Raising taxes is the worst way to reduce your deficits.  Because your tax policy didn’t cause your deficit.  Your spending did.  If you want real fiscal tightening decrease your SPENDING.  Do that and you’ll see real deficit reduction.

As far as currency manipulation?  Well, if you want to play by Keynesian economics this is what’s going to happen.  For the Keynesian way to work requires the honor system.  To have responsible fiscal policy.  And not to cheat with monetary policy when you don’t.

If you want to prevent currency manipulation then make it harder to manipulate your currency.  Bring back the gold standard.  If you don’t want to do that than just quit bitching about currency manipulators.  Because this isn’t a perfect world.  And cheaters are going to cheat because the game rules make it easy to cheat.

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FT92: “If government spending stimulates economic activity and tax cuts are government spending then tax cuts stimulate economic activity.” -Old Pithy

Posted by PITHOCRATES - November 18th, 2011

Fundamental Truth

The Keynesian School says when in Recession the Government should step in and Spend Money

Politicians lie.  Because they can’t do the things they want to do if they tell the truth.  And what do they want to do?  Accumulate money.  Our money.  To tax.  And spend.  To reward friends and cronies.  To make people dependent on government benefits.  To buy votes.  To secure their power.  And to live very comfortably on the taxpayer’s dime.

This comes at a cost.  The U.S. has accumulated a debt greater than most countries’ GDP.  And the deficit has surpassed the trillion dollar mark.  This irresponsible spending has caused Standard and Poor’s to downgrade the U.S. sovereign debt rating for the first time in U.S. history.  And the loose monetary policy to help put people into houses they couldn’t afford (to buy more votes) created the mother of all housing bubbles.  Leading to the Subprime Mortgage Crisis.  And the worst recession since the Great Depression.  The Great Recession.  That lingers on despite officially ending in 2009.  Economists no doubt fudged the numbers so they could call the Obama stimulus a success.  Which they did in the premature Recovery Summer.

Obama’s economic policies are Keynesian economic policies.  And the Keynesian school says when the economy goes into recession the government should step in and spend money.  To replace the economic activity that isn’t happening in the private sector.  This is supposed to prime the economic pump.  And restore the economy to good times.  But it doesn’t work.  It never has.  And it never will.  So why are they so insistent on Keynesian economic policies?  Because they empower the government to tax.  And spend.  And that’s what government wants to do.  Tax and spend.

If Keynesian Stimulus Spending Stimulates Economic Activity then so must Tax Cuts

Of course, this spending runs up massive deficits.  And debt.  As noted above.  And what do they want to do?  Well, they want to do the responsible thing.  And live within our means.  By cutting spending?  No.  By raising taxes.  To pay for this orgy of spending.  Because cutting spending would be irresponsible.  And hurt the economy.

Cutting taxes gives people more money to spend.  Which is good.  Because that is what stimulus spending does.  Gives people more money to spend.  But they oppose tax cuts.  Because the money doesn’t pass through their sticky fingers.  So they attack tax cuts.  Play with the meaning of words.  They call ‘tax cuts’ government spending.  Because spending reduces the amount of money in the national treasury.  Just like tax cuts.  Ergo tax cuts equal government spending.  And the only way to pay for government spending is, wait for it, with taxes.  That’s right.  The only responsible way to pay for tax cuts is with more taxes.  Circular logic of the first order.  But they use it.  And get away with it.

I say fine.  Let’s give them this perversion of the English language.  Tax cuts are government spending.  Just like Keynesian stimulus spending is government spending.  And if Keynesian stimulus spending stimulates economic activity then so must tax cuts.  Because they’re the same thing.  According to them.

100% of Tax-Cut Stimulus Stimulates Economic Activity

If spending and tax cuts are both spending then they’re both stimulative.  Given the choice I say choose tax cuts.  At least the bureaucrats won’t create the resulting debt by buying votes.  The private sector will.  As it generates more economic activity.  Which will create new jobs.  And new taxpayers.  Ultimately resulting in new tax revenue for the government.

Which is something Keynesian stimulus spending just won’t do.  For 100% of tax-cut stimulus stimulates economic activity.  And not a dime of it passes through a politician’s hand to a friend or crony to buy a single vote.

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Keynesian Tax and Spend Monetary Policy will Never Overcome Ruinous Fiscal and Regulatory Policy

Posted by PITHOCRATES - September 23rd, 2011

No Theory is Sacrosanct in the Scientific Method, Even if it’s Albert Einstein’s Theory

Albert Einstein‘s Theory of Relativity has held in the scientific community for some 106 years.  It hasn’t been accepted as a matter of faith, though.  It has been tested thousands of times in attempts to debunk it.  Right up to today.  Where it now appears we may be close to debunking it (see “Faster than light” particles may be physics revolution by Robert Evans posted 9/23/2011 on Reuters).

“It is premature to comment on this,” Professor Stephen Hawking, the world’s most well-known physicist, told Reuters. “Further experiments and clarifications are needed…”

“When an experiment finds an apparently unbelievable result and can find no artifact of the measurement to account for it, it is normal to invite broader scrutiny….it is good scientific practice,” he said…

Einstein’s theory has been tested thousands of times over the past 106 years and only recently have there been just slight hints that the behavior of some elementary particles of matter might not fit into it…

Ereditato, a physicist who also works at the Einstein Institute in the University of Berne, said the potential impact on science “is too large to draw any immediate conclusions or attempt physics interpretations…”

“Only when the dust finally settles should we dare draw any firm conclusions,” said Professor Forshaw. “It is in the nature of science that for every new and important discovery there will be hundreds of false alarms.”

This is the scientific method.  No theory is sacrosanct.  Even one by the great Albert Einstein.  Even if it’s been around for 106 years.

Quite the contrast to the theory of global warming.  Accepted by government scientists as indisputable fact.  Even though it has never been given serious scientific scrutiny like that given to one of the world’s greatest scientist.  Albert Einstein.

Considering the Economics, Only a Fool would Bet Against the Chinese in the area of Solar Panels

But Al Gore is smarter than Albert Einstein.  For he says that global warming is a scientific fact.  Even though we still call Einstein’s Theory of Relativity a theory after 106 years.  But not the theory of global warming.  No.  That theory is not a theory.  It’s fact.  So certain a fact that world governments have been killing economic activity everywhere to stop the ravishes of global warming.  Even investing in companies that promise to give us renewable green energy of the future.  Like that one that just ripped off the American taxpayer to the tune of half a billion dollars (see Solyndra haunts other government-backed solar firms by Steve Hargreaves posted 9/23/2011 on CNN Money).

At least three other government-backed solar firms face the same challenging market conditions that brought down Solyndra, the now bankrupt solar panel maker that could cost taxpayers over $500 million…

The company’s downfall is generally thought to have been caused by the declining price of silicon.

Solyndra didn’t use silicon. But many of its competitors did — traditional solar firms like Sunpower (SPWRA), Trina Solar (TSL), Yingli (YGE) and Jinkosolar (JKS). Solyndra was banking that high silicon prices would give it a competitive advantage…

Are they also doomed? Experts say that if they can further develop their technology they may have a fighting chance but market conditions in the near-term are working against them…

An Energy Department spokesman said the agency was not worried about these companies failing, saying it conducts rigorous reviews of all the ventures it funds.

Of course.  There’s nothing to worry about these other companies failing.  Because the Energy Department conducts a rigorous review of all the ventures they fund.  Except Solyndra apparently.  Or they did review them rigorously.  And the Energy Department just sucks at its job.

China’s investment in silicon as well as its huge investments in solar panel makers, combined with weaker demand worldwide as subsidies expire in Europe, caused the price of traditional solar panels to plummet.

In the last year alone they fell some 40%.

All across the globe, solar panel makers, especially ones that were developing more advanced technology, are finding it hard to compete with the Chinese as the price of solar panels drops.

I guess the Energy Department just sucks at its job.  I mean, imagine you’re an investor for a moment.  And you want to invest in a store that sells home improvement stuff.  Do you invest in the Home Depot?  Or the mom and pop hardware store?  The Home Depot is much bigger.  Has a greater variety of stuff.  And sells that stuff for 40% less than Mom and Pop.  Which store would you invest in?  Of course, you would invest in the Home Depot.  But the Energy Department, the geniuses that they are, would invest in Mom and Pop.  And then act shocked when they go belly up in the face of that fierce competition.

Considering the economics, only a fool would bet against the Chinese in the area of solar panels.  Then again, no one in Washington seems to understand economics in the least.

Cheaper panels mean more people will switch to the clean technology. Work has been booming for solar installers, project developers, and financiers. Just this week the industry said solar power capacity in the United States jumped 69% in the second quarter compared to the same time last year.

The Energy Department, as part of its plan to fund R&D and commercialization of renewable and clean energy technology, has backed or is considering backing loans to 42 firms across the sector totaling $39 billion in funding.

The manufacturers are taking it on the chin.  But the installers are installing these cheap Chinese solar panels like there’s no tomorrow.  You’d think the Energy Department would be happy that these silly things are being installed and get out of the investment business.  But no.  They’re going to piss away another $39 billion to fund firms that won’t be able to compete against the Chinese either.

By a show of hands who wants the Republican president to abolish the Energy Department in 2013?

One Gets the Feeling that Government Likes Wasteful Spending as it Adds to the Deficit

We really need to cut the government off.  They just aren’t responsible with our money.  If it ain’t throwing money away on solar panels, they’re throwing it away on dead people (see Gov’t paid $600 million in benefits to dead people by Sam Hananel posted 9/23/2011 on the Associated Press).

The federal government has doled out more than $600 million in benefit payments to dead people over the past five years, a watchdog report says.

Such payments are meant for retired or disabled federal workers…

In one case, the son of a beneficiary continued receiving payments for 37 years after his father’s death in 1971. The payments – totaling more than $515,000 – were only discovered when the son died in 2008.

If you owe a dollar in taxes you can bet the IRS will find you wherever you are.  But when it comes to spending our money it’s a different story.  As they are probably afraid of any close scrutiny that might show other mishandled funds.

Last year, government investigators found that more than 89,000 stimulus payments of $250 each from the massive economic recovery package went to people who were either dead or in prison.

There’s another $22 million pissed away by Uncle Sam.  $22 million here.  $600 million there.  And $16 muffins.  Where does it stop?  They are so ruthless when it comes to taxing us.  But once they get our money they apparently don’t give a damn about what happens to it then.

One gets the feeling that they like this waste.  As it adds to the deficit.  And the greater the deficit is the greater the need for new revenue.  Higher tax rates.  And getting the rich to pay their fair share.  I say let’s raise the tax rates on those doing such a poor job handling our money.  If they have such a cavalier attitude about taxpayers’ money, let them belly up to the bar and pay for their waste with their own damn money.

If You Want Real Stimulus Repeal Dodd-Frank.  That Alone will Create 30,000 Jobs at One Bank.

So the government is horrible at picking investment winners.  And is about as responsible as a teenager with money.  But Obama is looking to spend another $450 billion in stimulus.  To create jobs.  Unlike that $800 billion stimulus that failed to create jobs.  So they don’t know how to create jobs either.  Worse, they only thing they seem to be good at is destroying jobs (see The Dodd-Frank Layoffs posted 9/13/2011 on The Wall Street Journal).

Bank of America appears to have provided part of the answer by announcing yesterday that the nation’s largest bank will cut 30,000 jobs between now and 2014…

The Fed dutifully ordered banks to cut their fees almost in half. Bank of America disclosed in its most recent quarterly report that this change will reduce the bank’s debit-card revenues by $475 million in just the fourth quarter of this year. The new rules take effect on October 1, so BofA seems to have sensible timing as it begins to shed workers from a consumer business that has become suddenly less profitable by federal edict…

But given the real-world results for bank employees, politicians should not be allowed to pretend that there are no consequences when they deliberately reduce the profitability of employers. Mr. Obama proposed last week to spend some $450 billion more in outlays or tax credits to create more jobs, but it would have cost a lot less to save these 30,000.

If they want real stimulus they should repeal Dodd-Frank.  That alone will create 30,000 jobs.  At one bank.  If this happens at other banks you’re looking at hundreds of thousands of jobs.  Now that’s stimulus.

If they really want to create jobs they ought to go big.  Abolish the EPA.  And the Energy Department.  For a start.  With that kind of uncertainty removed just think of the explosion in economic activity.  Creating jobs galore.  Hundreds of thousands.  Perhaps millions.  The oil and coal industries alone would probable wrest this country from recession.

The Economy is not Just Monetary Policy.  It’s Fiscal and Regulatory Policy, too.

So it’s clear the government doesn’t know the first thing about stimulating economic activity.  They just can’t figure that out.  But what they can do is destroy jobs.  They’re real good at that.  And the reason for all of this is that they’re Keynesians.  They worship at the altar of Keynesian Economics.  Despite its horrendous track record.  Almost three years and counting for the current administration.  But they refuse to lose faith.  Instead, when they fail, they just choose to fail again.  By pursuing more of the same failed policies (see Markets tumble after Fed says it will buy longer-term bonds to try to boost economy by Neil Irwin posted 9/23/2011 on The Washington Post).

The announcement that the Fed would buy $400 billion in long-term Treasury bonds immediately achieved its intended effect, pushing rates on these securities and other investments to their lowest level in decades.

But the stock market rendered a sharply negative verdict. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index tumbled almost 3 percent on the Fed’s discouraging statement that its leaders see “significant downside risks” for the economy. Asian markets closed down between 2 and 4.85 percent, and key European indexes were trading more than 4 percent lower at midday.

No one wants to borrow money.  Businesses.  Or consumers.  Because there is just too much economic uncertainty with the Obama administration.  Everybody is hunkering down.  Deleveraging.  And hoarding cash.  Until better economic times.  Times with less uncertainty.  Probably starting sometime after 2012.  When there’ll be a new Republican president.  And hopefully a Republican House and Senate.  To undo those things causing all of this uncertainty.  Dodd-Frank.  Obamacare.  Etc.

The Fed action, which capped a two-day meeting, is focused squarely on lowering mortgage rates in an effort to strengthen the ailing housing market and lighten the load of the tremendous debt weighing on consumers. The move could also make it cheaper for businesses to borrow money for investments and push more dollars into the stock market.

The housing bubble create a surplus of houses that’ll be around for a long, long time.  The country is dotted with empty homes that banks have foreclosed on.  And the banks own a whole bunch more that will be hitting the market soon.  It’s a buyer’s market out there.  But it sure sucks to be a seller.  Especially if your mortgage is under water.  Homes have lost so much value after that bubble burst that anyone selling now will lose tens of thousands of dollars.  So they’re not selling.  Or buying.  No matter how cheap mortgage rates are.

The bond-buying program that ended in the summer, though massive in scale, failed to keep economic growth from sputtering. The disappointing result showed the limits of what the Fed can accomplish at a time when consumers are struggling with enormous debts and the U.S. banking system remains traumatized. The new initiative could face the same constraints.

Quantitative easing 2 failed.  And there’s no reason to think that quantitative easing 3 won’t fail as well.  So why do it?  Because they’re Keynesians.  And their scripture says that’s what you do.  Weak demand?  Why you fix that with cheap money.  But they don’t understand that the economy is not just monetary policy.  It’s fiscal policy, too.  And their fiscal policy is killing the economy.  And what their fiscal policy doesn’t kill their regulatory policy will.

The Only Way to Fix this Economy is to Get Rid of Keynesian Policies

Tax and spend Keynesian policies are strangling the economy.  Stimulus spending doesn’t work.  If it did the economy would be reaching record heights due to that record spending.  But it’s not.  The tax and spend Keynesians explanation for this record of dismal failure?  They didn’t spend enough.

The economic malaise has a lot more to do with uncertainty than weak demand.  It’s that out of control spending.  You eventually have to pay for it.  And every business owner knows that ultimately you pay for spending with taxes.  And they see the Obama administration is hell-bent on raising taxes on anyone earning more than $200,000 a year.  Which will be a tax hike on most small business as their earnings pass through to their personal tax return.

And while they’re waiting for punitive taxes to come down the pike they’re being hammered by regulatory compliance costs.  The big one scaring the bejesus out of them is Obamacare.  And Dodd-Frank is not just for Wall Street bankers.  Not to mention the EPA’s enormous impact on business operations.  They’re being bitch-slapped left and right by these regulations.  And they are terrified by what’s next from this administration.

You see, Big Government Keynesian politicians don’t understand economics.  Or business.  They see business as cash piñatas.  That they can whack at their pleasure.  They have no idea how they make money.  But they assume that they will go on making money no matter what they do in Washington.  And being the Keynesians they are, they believe that businesses make money for government first.  And then, after government takes what they want, what they deem fair, then and only then can they use whatever they earn for their own selfish wants and pleasures.  The selfish rich bastards they are.  Those contemptible business owners.

This is how Big Government Keynesians think.  And this is why they fail miserably at creating jobs.  And economic activity.  The only way to fix this economy, then, is to get rid of Keynesian policies.  And the only way to do that is to get rid of the Keynesians.  At the voting booth.  By voting conservative.  And in our two-party system, that means voting Republican.

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