Keynesians, Gold Standard, Consumer Price Index, Money Stock, Nixon Shock, 1973 Oil Crisis, Gasoline Prices, Hidden Tax and Wealth Transfer

Posted by PITHOCRATES - April 24th, 2012

History 101

With the Increase in the Money Supply came the Permanent Increase in Consumer Prices that Continues to this Date

Keynesians hate the gold standard.  Because it puts a limit on how much money a government can print.  Keynesians believe in the power of government to eliminate recessions.  And their cure for recession?  Inflation.  The government prints money to spend in the private economy.  To make up for the decline in consumer spending.  But it turned out this didn’t work.  As the Seventies showed.  They printed a lot of money.  But it didn’t end the recession.  It just raised consumer prices.  Because there is a direct correlation between the amount of money in circulation and consumer prices.  As you can see in the following graph. 

 Source: M2, CPI

 The consumer price index (CPI) data comes from the U.S. Department of Labor.  The data is at 5 year intervals.  The CPI is a ‘basket’ of prices for a selection of representative goods and services divided by another ‘basket’ of prices from a fixed date.  The resulting number is a price index.  If you plot these for a period of time you can see inflation (a rising graph) or deflation (a falling graph).  M2 is the money stock (seasonally unadjusted).  M2 includes currency, traveler’s checks, demand deposits, other checkable deposits, retail MMMFs, savings and small time deposits.

The Breton Woods system established fixed exchange rates for international trade.  It also pegged the U.S. dollar to gold.  The U.S. government promised to exchange U.S. dollars for gold at a rate of $35/ounce.  Making the U.S. dollar as good as gold.  This set the rules for international trade.  Made it fair.  And prevented anyone from cheating by devaluing their currency to make their exports cheaper to gain an economical advantage in international trade.  The system worked well.  Until the Sixties.  Because of the Vietnam War.  And LBJ’s Great Society.  These increased government spending so much that the U.S. government turned to printing money to pay for these.  Which depreciated the dollar.  Making it not as good as gold anymore.  So our trading partners began dumping their devalued dollars.  Exchanging them for gold at $35/ounce.  Which was a problem for the Nixon administration.  For that gold was far more valuable than the U.S. dollar.  They could print more dollars.  But once that gold was gone it was gone.  So Nixon acted to keep that gold in the U.S.

On August 15, 1971 Nixon decoupled the dollar from gold.  Known as the Nixon Shock.  Reneging on the solemn promise to exchange U.S. dollars for gold.  And ramped up the printing presses.  Which you can see in the graph.  After August 15 the money supply began growing.  And continues to this date.  With the increase in the money supply came the permanent increase in consumer prices that, also, continues to this date.  In lockstep with the growth of the money supply.

Prior to the Nixon Shock Gasoline Prices were Falling at a Greater Rate than the Rate Consumer Prices were Rising 

Since August of 1971 the U.S. has maintained a policy of permanent inflation.  Which caused a policy of permanently increasing consumer prices.  Those high prices we complain about, then, are not the fault of greedy businesses.  They’re the fault of government.  And their easy monetary policy.  In fact, if it was not for government’s irresponsible monetary policy the high price we hate most would not be as high as it is today.  In fact, because of the efficiency of the industry bringing us this one product its price has not followed the general upward trend in consumer prices.  And what is this product?  Gasoline.  Which, apart from two spikes in the last 60 years or so has either been falling or holding steady in comparison to consumer prices.

 Source: CPI, Gas $/Gal

 These prices are from DaveManual.com.  And reflect generally the price at the pump over this time period.  Using at first leaded gasoline.  Then unleaded gasoline.  Using inflation adjusted average prices.  Then chained 2005 dollars.  These prices are not exactly apples-to-apples.  But the trending information they provide illustrates two major points.  The two spikes in gas prices were due to demand greatly outpacing supply.  And that even with these two spikes gasoline prices would be far lower today if it wasn’t for the government’s policy of permanent inflation.

Note that prior to the Nixon Shock gasoline prices were falling at a greater rate than the rate consumer prices were rising.  These trends stopped in the Seventies for two reasons.  The Nixon Shock.  And the 1973 oil crisis.  When OPEC punished the U.S. for their support of Israel in the Yom Kippur war by cutting our oil supply.  These two events caused gasoline prices to spike.  But then something interesting happened with these high prices.  It brought a lot of oil producers into the market to cash in on those high prices.  This surge in production coupled with a falling demand due to the U.S. recession in the Seventies caused an oil glut in the Eighties.  Bringing prices back down.  Where they flat-lined for a decade or so while all other consumer prices continued their march upward.  Until two of the most populous countries in the world modernized their economies.  India and China.  Causing a spike in demand.  And a spike in prices.  For it was like adding another United States or two to the world gasoline market.

Inflation is a Hidden Tax that Transfers Wealth from the Private Sector to the Public Sector

Keynesians love to talk about how great the economy was during the Fifties when the high marginal tax rate was 91-92%.  “See?” they say.  “The economy was robust and growing during the Fifties even with these high marginal tax rates.  So high marginal tax rates are good for the economy.”  But they will never comment on how instrumental the gold standard was in keeping government spending within responsible limits.  How that responsible monetary policy kept inflation and consumer prices under control.  No.  They don’t see that part of the Fifties.  Only the high marginal tax rates.  Because they don’t want to return to the gold standard.  Or have any restrictions on their irresponsible ways.

Keynesians believe in the power of government to manage the economy.  And they really like to tax and spend.  A lot.  But taxing too much has consequences.  People don’t like paying taxes.  And don’t tend to vote for people who tax them a lot.  Which is why Keynesians love inflation.  Because it’s a hidden tax.  The higher the inflation rate the higher the tax.  Because government also borrows money.  They sell bonds.  That we buy as a retirement investment.  But if there’s been a good amount of inflation between the selling and redemption of those bonds it makes it a lot easier to redeem those bonds.  Because thanks to inflation those bonds are worth far less than they were when the government issued them.  Even Keynes noted that inflation was a way to transfer a lot of wealth from the private sector to the public sector.  Without many people understanding that it was even happening.

If you ever wondered why it takes two incomes to do what your father did with one income this is why.  Inflation.  This never ending transfer of wealth from the private sector to the public sector.  Leaving us less to retire on.  Making it harder to save for our children’s college education.  Not to mention the higher cost of living that shrinks our real wages.  While they tax our higher nominal wages at ever higher income tax rates (income tax bracket creep is another inflation phenomenon).  Everywhere we turn the government takes more and more of our wealth.  All thanks to LBJ increasing the government spending (for his Vietnam War and his Great Society).  And Richard Nixon decoupling the U.S. dollar from gold.  Instead of doing the responsible thing.  And cutting spending.  But much like high taxes you don’t win any friends at the voting booth by cutting spending.  So thanks to them we’ve had permanent and significant rising inflation and consumer prices ever since.  And as a result a flat to a falling standard of living.  Where soon our children may not have a better life than their parents.  Thank you LBJ and Richard Nixon.  And thank you Keynesian economics.

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LESSONS LEARNED #54: “Every dollar the government spends is a dollar that the consumer can’t spend.” -Old Pithy

Posted by PITHOCRATES - February 24th, 2011

Consumer Spending Equals Approximately Two-Thirds of GDP

This will be an oversimplified explanation of macroeconomics.  And not to worry.  There will be no math.  Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the sum total of all spending in the economy.  That spending breaks down into two parts.  Private.  And government (federal, state and local).  The higher the GDP the more spending in the economy.  Which typically means there are more jobs.  People are working.  They’re earning money.  And spending it.  The more they do the more economic activity there is.  And the more economic activity there is the better all our lives are.

Again, we’re keeping it simple.  We’ll use approximate numbers.  Because they’re close enough.  And explain the big picture.  And that big picture is this.  Consumer spending (private) equals approximately two-thirds of GDP.  And government spending equals approximately one-third of GDP.  And that one-third can be broken down as follows.  Defense is approximately 5% of GDP.  Pensions are approximately 6% of GDP.  Health care is approximately 6% of GDP.  Education is approximately 7% of GDP.  These add up to about 24% of GDP.  That other 10% or so of the ‘one-third’ is a bunch of smaller ‘discretionary’ programs.  And some other stuff.

Now, what’s the difference between consumer and government spending?  Well, based on the above, government spending pays for a lot of things we don’t want or enjoy but need.  All the good things in life are included in consumer spending.  Our homes.  Our cars.  Our electronic toys.  Candy.  Lingerie.  Perfume.  Movies.  Dinners out.  Fine wine.  Our cable subscription.  Our Internet access.  These are the things why we work for a paycheck.  And the things we should take care of but don’t (such as retirement and health care)?  Many of us leave it for others to pay (i.e., the government).  Because many of us live in the now.  And don’t plan for the future.

All the Money for GDP Spending comes from the Private Sector

Notice anything else about these numbers?  The ‘two-thirds’ and the ‘one-third’?  If you add them together they equal the total amount of spending.  And why is that?  Why does GDP equal the sum of consumer and government spending?  For a very simple reason.  The government spends our tax dollars.  And those taxes come from consumers.  In other words, government spending would have been consumer spending if the government didn’t transfer that money from the private sector to the public sector.

You know what this means, don’t you?  All the money for GDP spending comes from the private sector.  In other words, the private sector pays for both their spending (consumer spending) as well as the government’s spending.  And every time government spending increases consumer spending decreases.  Because that additional government spending is taking away from the consumers, leaving them less to spend.  Which tells you what about federal stimulus spending?  That’s right, it doesn’t stimulate.  Because it doesn’t add any new money to the economy.  The same money is there.  Just someone else is spending it (the government instead of the consumer).

But what about deficit spending?  When the government borrows money or prints money (i.e., quantitative easing), that doesn’t take money away from the consumers.  That’s adding new money to the economy, isn’t it?  Well, yes and no.  If you borrow a little you pay a little interest.  If you borrow a lot you pay a lot of interest.  And guess who pays the interest?  We do.  That’s another thing they use our taxes for.  Our federal debt is in the neighborhood of $14 trillion.  That’s a lot of debt.  The interest on that debt totals about $200 billion dollars.  And we have to pay this every year with our taxes (not to mention that we have to pay down at least some of this principal).  The interest on our federal debt is close to $200 billion dollars.  And we have to pay this every year with our taxes.  Or we have to borrow more money to pay the interest on what we’ve previously borrowed.  Which increased our total debt.  And our total interest.  So borrowing to ‘stimulate’ just transfers more money from the private sector to the public sector.  Which, of course, decreases economic activity.

Printing money is a completely different story.  It’s far more destructive.  Printing money causes inflation.  Adding dollars into circulation just makes the dollars we have worth less.  Because our money is worth less, it takes more of it to buy the same stuff we used to buy.  Interest rates go up.  Our credit card interest rate goes up.  And the more they print the more living costs.  It was so bad in the Seventies that businesses added Cost of Living Adjustments (COLA) to our pay checks to account for the high inflation.  If they didn’t, prices would rise faster than our wages.  Without it some people wouldn’t have been able to afford to buy their groceries because inflation was that bad in the Seventies.

Government Spending is often for Political Reasons

And if this wasn’t bad enough (and don’t you think it should be?), government spending disrupts the free market.  In so many ways.  First of all, consumers have less to spend.  So businesses sell less.  And create fewer jobs.  And it disrupts the allocation of resources.  The government may purchase the ingredients in the things you buy (to make things no one wants to buy).  Because there are fewer of these ingredients left in the free market, prices go up.  Which means you now pay more at the store.  They could use our tax money to fund a regulatory body that increases the cost of doing business (say adding a carbon tax to the sale price of something).  We pay more for the bureaucracy AND the new tax makes the things we buy more costly.  Etc.

And what makes this even worse is that government spending is often for political reasons.  Not for the consumer’s best interest.  Ever wonder why we use corn syrup for a sweetener?  The rest of the world uses sugar.  We use corn syrup.  Why?  The powerful corn lobby gives boatloads of money to politicians who in turn legislate tariffs on sugar.  That’s a special tax on sugar imported to this country.  It makes it more expensive.  More than using the domestically produced corn syrup.  So we use corn syrup.  In the mean time, everyone buying sugar in the store pays a lot more than people do in the rest of the world.

And then there are electric cars.  No one wants them.  How do we know this?  Because the only way they sell them are with big government subsidies.  This is a disruption of the free market.  As of now, the electric car has very limited uses.  Because it has a very limited range.  (Imagine yourself stuck in rush hour traffic during a blizzard with the heater and your lights on.  How long do you think you will last sitting at a standstill in traffic?)  But government gives businesses subsidies (our tax dollars) to produce these cars.  And government gives consumers subsidies (our tax dollars) to buy these cars.  And the allocation of resources are not per consumer demand but by this government interference into the free market.

Another good car example is the use of flex fuel (E85).  Instead of exporting our corn to impoverished and hungry nations, we’re using food to make ethanol to blend with gasoline to put into our cars.  Because we’re using food for energy instead of food, food prices go up.  Making impoverished and hungry people more impoverished and hungry.

Government Spending is Consumer Spending done Poorly

The private sector begets the public sector.  It gives it life by creating economic activity.  And when the private sector does well the public sector does well.  But the public sector is like a parasite.  It can only survive by sucking life out of its host.  The private sector.  And like parasites, the more they feed the sicker the host gets.

Government spending is often necessary.  But it does nothing to stimulate the private sector.  In fact, it hinders the private sector.  So government should minimize its spending.  Including stimulus spending.  Because it doesn’t stimulate anything but politics.  At the expense of the consumer.

Government spending is consumer spending done poorly.  It rarely is efficient.  It rarely meets its intended goal.  It ends up costing far more than anyone in government ever imagined.  It kills jobs.  And it makes consumers make decisions based not on what they want but what government thinks is best for them. 

Because government does poorly what others do well, the government that governs best is the government that intervenes the least.  If this were not true, we would not be suffering through the greatest recession since the Great Depression.  The Soviet Union would have won the Cold War.  And Greece would not have burned in riots in 2009.  The proof is in the history.  And we ignore it at our own peril.

www.PITHOCRATES.com

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