Looking at the Economic Data it’s getting hard to tell who’s President, Barack Obama or Jimmy Carter

Posted by PITHOCRATES - August 22nd, 2011

Keynesian Economists’ Poor Forecasts suggests their Keynesian Economics doesn’t Work

More bad news for the housing market.  Not that this is a surprise.  That was a pretty big housing bubble that the Fed created.  With their stimulative low interest rates.  And the bigger they are the harder they fall.  Or pop, as it were.  And as the market corrected the Fed’s damage, it threw a slew of people out of work (see Early Mortgage Delinquencies Rise to Highest in Year as U.S. Economy Slows by Kathleen M. Howley posted 8/22/2011 on Bloomberg). 

The percentage of U.S. mortgages overdue by one month rose to the highest level in a year in the second quarter as homeowners who lost jobs were unable to make their payments…

The gain in early delinquencies signals a slowing economy may increase foreclosures, said Jay Brinkmann, chief economist of the trade group. The unemployment rate in the three months ended June 30 rose to 9.1 percent from 8.9 percent, the first quarterly increase since 2009, according to the Labor Department. Jobless claims jumped to an eight-month high in late April, government data show.

For the quarter ending June 30 unemployment was at 9.1 percent.  Ouch.  Remember why it was so urgent to pass the Obama Keynesian stimulus?  To keep the unemployment rate under 8%.  That was in February of 2009.  That’s two years ago.  Guess Keynesian economics doesn’t work.

The world’s largest economy grew at a 1.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said on July 29. That was less than the increase of 1.8 percent forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. A Federal Reserve report last week showed manufacturing in the Philadelphia region contracted in August by the most in more than two years as orders fell and factories fired workers.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. lowered their forecasts for U.S. gross domestic product last week. The U.S. will expand 1.5 percent this year, down from a previous forecast of 1.7 percent, according to Goldman economists in New York. JPMorgan predicts 1 percent growth in U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter, down from an earlier projection of 2.5 percent, the bank said last week.

And the news just keeps getting better.  And by better I mean worse.  Again another record.  This one for manufacturing.  And actual GDP numbers are coming in under economists’ estimates.  The numbers are so bad these economists are revising their future projections down.  It should be noted that the vast majority of mainstream economists are Keynesian economists.  Which suggests their Keynesian economics doesn’t work very well.

Inflation Growing at a Greater Rate than Wages equals Real Pay Cuts

These mainstream economists said the Great Recession ended by July 2009.  Said that the Obama administration followed their Keynesian advice.  Kicked that recession in the behind.  And launched the recovery with a Recovery Summer.  Yay said the Keynesians.  Everything was going to be all right.  And yet two years later here we are.  Where things are still not right (see Survey: US companies say they’re planning another year of small raises for workers in 2012 by the Associated Press posted 8/22/2011 on The Washington Post). 

After increasing salaries by 2.6 percent this year and last year, companies are planning a 2.8 percent bump in 2012, benefits and human resources consultancy Towers Watson reported Monday.

That’s somewhat smaller than raises in the last decade. From 2000 to 2006, the year before the Great Recession began, salaries rose an average 3.9 percent for workers who were not executives.

And the modest bump may not help add much buying power for shoppers. In the 12 months through July, prices for consumers have risen 3.6 percent, according to the government’s latest calculations.

Those lucky enough to have a job are taking real pay cuts to keep those jobs.  Inflation is growing at a greater rate than their wages.  Which means as prices go up their pay checks will buy less.  Despite those raises.  High unemployment.  And rising inflation.  The last time the economy saw numbers this bad was during the Seventies.  When we called it stagflation.  And blamed Jimmy Carter.  Who became a one-term president because of it.

Obama Cares enough about the People to Hide from them on the Golf Course

President Obama is aware of the nation’s woes.  He is even thinking about them while on vacation.  On Martha’s Vineyard.  Playground for the uber rich (see President keeps low profile on Martha’s Vineyard by Mark Shanahan & Meredith Goldstein posted 8/20/2011 on the boston.com).   

But it was later, at the Vineyard Golf Course in Edgartown, where the president’s recalcitrance was most evident. Approaching the eighth tee in a golf cart with friend and frequent golfing buddy Eric Whitaker, the president noticed three TV cameras and a Globe photographer across the street. Rather than stop and be photographed teeing off, the president skipped the hole.

That’s how much he cares.  He’ll skip a hole during a round of golf just so we don’t see him living well during these bad economic times.  Talk about sacrifice.  He’s just not playing 17 holes instead of 18.  Skipping that hole may have an adverse affect on his handicap.  He called for fair-share sacrifice.  And he, too, is sacrificing.  Walking it like he talks it.  So think about this noble act before you start bitching about another tax hike.  He skipped a hole of golf.

Obama bailed out General Motors and Chrysler and put Detroit back to Work

But it’s back to work after Martha’s Vineyards.  Just like the rest of us after our vacations.  Though our vacations are a bit more Spartan these days.  And rarely venture farther than our own backyards (see Obama to join unions’ Labor Day festivities in Detroit by Aaron Kessler posted 8/22/2011 on the Detroit Free Press). 

WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama will join thousands of union members at Labor Day festivities in Detroit, the Free Press has learned,

Obama will deliver remarks at a Labor Day event sponsored by the Metro Detroit Labor Council, according to a White House official with knowledge of the trip.

While no other details were immediately available, it is likely he would again use the opportunity to tout his administration’s role in the rescues in 2009 of General Motors and Chrysler.

So the president is going to Detroit to celebrate Labor Day.  It makes sense.  I mean, he bailed out General Motors and Chrysler, didn’t he?  And put the good people of Detroit back to work.

With 13.7% Unemployment where’s the Summer Recovery in Detroit?

Then again, looking at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, it would appear that he has not put the good people of Detroit back to work (see Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment Summary posted 8/3/2011 on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). 

Eleven of the most populous metropolitan areas are made up of 34 metropolitan divisions, which are essentially separately identifiable employment centers. In June 2011, Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, Fla., and Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn, Mich., registered the highest jobless rates among the divisions, 13.9 and 13.7 percent, respectively. Nashua, N.H.-Mass., reported the lowest division rate, 5.4 percent, followed by Bethesda-Rockville-Frederick, Md., 5.8 percent. (See table 2.)

No wonder Maxine Waters is so angry.  He skips Detroit on his ‘listening’ bus tour.  And vacations on the very exclusive Martha’s Vineyards.  While the Detroit area is suffering double-digit unemployment.  If he was listening anywhere, it should have been in Detroit.

The Detroit area unemployment rate is 13.7%.  While the national rate is only 9.1% for the same period.  Yes, the national rate is bad.  But it’s not Detroit bad.  And this after the automotive bailouts.  That put the good people of Detroit back to work.  On top of the Obama stimulus.  So where’s the Summer Recovery in Detroit?  What’s happened to the Motor City? 

So this is what a Second Jimmy Carter Term would have been Like 

In a word, Obamanomics.  His Keynesian policies that were supposed to save jobs have killed jobs.  In Detroit.  And across the nation.  Worse, on top of high unemployment these policies have ignited inflation.  Unemployment plus inflation equals stagnation.  Misery.  And malaise

So this is what a second Jimmy Carter term would have been like.  Makes one want to say, “Welcome back Carter.”  But not in that warm nostalgic way like in that Seventies sitcom (Welcome Back Kotter).  Of course you never saw Jimmy Carter living it up like Obama.  So there are some differences.

This economy will not help Obama in 2012.  Worse, the American people will get no relief until after 2012.  For it’s like Ronald Reagan said in his campaign against Jimmy Carter (see President Ronald Reagan – Liberty State Park [Pt. 1] at 5:26).  A recession is when your neighbor loses his job.  A depression is when you lose yours.  And recovery is when Barack Obama loses his.

I’m paraphrasing, of course.

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Broke and Inefficient: Medicare, Social Security, Liberalism and (soon to be) Obamacare

Posted by PITHOCRATES - November 15th, 2010

The Washington Post Thinks President Obama can be Great.  If he Quits being President.

The Washington Post says the American people have rejected President Obama and his policies.  But they still think he’s the bee’s knees.  The great man can still be great.  If he quits (see Opinion | One and done: To be a great president, Obama should not seek reelection in 2012 by Douglas E. Schoen and Patrick H. Caddell posted 11/14/2010 on The Washington Post).

Obama himself once said to Diane Sawyer: “I’d rather be a really good one-term president than a mediocre two-term president.” He now has the chance to deliver on that idea.

In the 2008 presidential campaign, Obama spoke repeatedly of his desire to end the red-state-blue-state divisions in America and to change the way Washington works. This was a central reason he was elected; such aspirations struck a deep chord with the polarized electorate.

But that’s not the reason the people elected him.  They simply didn’t know any better.  No one knew anything about him.  He had no track record.  No experience.  A barren resume.  Questionable associations with radicals.  And he went to church run by a racist and anti-American pastor. 

The liberal mainstream media simply failed to vet this candidate.  And now that he has governed as one would expect with such a past, the people have rejected him at the 2010 midterm elections.  As they would have during the campaign.  Had the media vetted him like they vet Republican candidates.  But they didn’t.  Because they were already in love with him.

Should the president do that, he – and the country – would face virtually no bad outcomes. The worst-case scenario for Obama? In January 2013, he walks away from the White House having been transformative in two ways: as the first black president, yes, but also as a man who governed in a manner unmatched by any modern leader. He will have reconciled the nation, continued the economic recovery, gained a measure of control over the fiscal problems that threaten our future, and forged critical solutions to our international challenges. He will, at last, be the figure globally he has sought to be, and will almost certainly leave a better regarded president than he is today. History will look upon him kindly – and so will the public.

No.  They won’t.  President Obama wasn’t succumbing to pressure from his liberal base.  He wanted to remake America into a quasi-socialist state like those social democracies in Europe.  The American people don’t.  Hence the 2010 midterm election results. 

More Obamacare Waivers to Companies that can’t Afford Obamacare

Obama lied during the 2008 presidential campaign.  He said he was a centrist.  He said he didn’t want to nationalize health care.  Well, after winning he said elections have consequences.  There would be no reaching across the aisle.  It would be his way.  Because the Republicans lost.  And what did he want more than anything else?  A Big Government takeover of health care. 

And he lied again.  He said they would provide health care to more people and bring total costs down.  Well, Obamacare forced private insurers to provide more benefits.  So, of course, they raised their premiums.  Some dropped children-only policies because Obamacare basically made those pure unfunded welfare.  And McDonald’s asked for, and got, waivers for their min-med plans.  As did others.  Why?  Because Obamacare increased the cost of those plans so much that they would have dropped health insurance for their employees without the waivers. 

Obamacare is forcing higher costs on others, too.  To date the government has issued another 111 waivers (see Approved Applications for Waiver of the Annual Limits Requirements of the PHS Act Section 2711 as of November 1, 2010 from the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services website).  And because the unions didn’t get the public option to offload their health care burdens, a lot of them want out of Obamacare.  They can’t afford it.  And if they can’t, you know others without big legal staffs who have no idea what’s coming can’t afford it either.

Medicare:  Broke and Inefficient

Besides out of control costs what can we expect with government managed health care?  Well, I guess we can look at government managed health care we have now.  Medicare.  And what’s it like working in that government run system (see Doctors brace for possible big Medicare pay cuts by Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar, Associated Press, posted 11/13/2010 on Yahoo! News)?

“My frustration level is at a nine or 10 right now,” said Wagner, who practices in San Antonio. “I am exceptionally exhausted with these annual and biannual threats to cut my reimbursement by drastic amounts. As a business person, I can’t budget at all because I have no idea how much money is going to come in. Medicine is a business. Private practice is a business.”

Yeah, well, she’s probably just another greedy doctor.

Last summer, when Congress missed the deadline for an extension, Wagner had to tap her line of credit to pay the salaries of her nurses and office staff. Medicare is only a fraction of her practice, but the cancer surgeon said private insurance companies also held up payments waiting to see what would happen. “I didn’t get a check in the mail for almost a month,” she said.

Well, maybe not.

Social Security:  Broke and Inefficient

How about Social Security?  Sure, that’s been flirting with bankruptcy for like forever.  But it works, doesn’t it?  On the benefit side?  Providing a swift and life-saving safety net for those most at risk?  Yeah, pull the other (see Social Security judges facing more violent threats by Sam Hananel, Associated Press, posted 11/14/2010).

Judges who hear Social Security disability cases are facing a growing number of violent threats from claimants angry over being denied benefits or frustrated at lengthy delays in processing claims.

And how long are they waiting?

Nearly 2 million people are waiting to find out if they qualify for benefits, with many having to wait more than two years to see their first payment.

Wow.  Even renewing your driver’s license is less painful than that.

Obamacare:  Soon to Become Broke and Inefficient

And this is what President Obama wants to give us.  He wants to take over health care and make it like Medicare and Social Security.  Chronically on the verge of bankruptcy.  And grossly inefficient. 

The social democracies of Europe are imploding under their own weights.  People are rioting.  Cities are burning.  And while they desperately try to reverse direction, Obama is dragging a reluctant America in the other direction while whistling a happy tune.  And unless history is a product of our liberal public school system, there’s no way in hell it will look kindly on the man that so greatly damaged America.

It’s not the partisanship causing the trouble in Washington.  It’s an ideology.  Liberalism.  Which is broke and inefficient.  It’s time to get rid of it.  And a good place to start would be to repeal Obamacare.  If he did that, perhaps history would look kindly on him.

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LESSONS LEARNED #38: “Repeating a lie doesn’t make it true.” -Old Pithy

Posted by PITHOCRATES - November 4th, 2010

Liars Lie

Lying works.  Political spin.  Poetic license.  Fibbing.  Slander.  Libel.  Call it what you’d like.  Politicians lie.  Because it works.  Especially when you can’t win in the arena of ideas.  If they can’t win the philosophical debate what do our politicians do?  Attack the messenger, not the message.  If the history doesn’t validate their policies what do they do?  Revise history.  It never changes.  The only thing that does is the people hearing the lies.

Presidents may dream, but the House of Representatives controls the purse.  That’s why there are numerous battles between Capitol Hill and the White House.  Between Speakers of the House and presidents.  Some of the big partisan battles in recent times?  Tip O’Neil and Ronald Reagan.  Tom Foley and George H.W. Bush.  Newt Gingrich and Bill Clinton.  Nancy Pelosi and George W. Bush.  When different political parties hold the White House and the Hill, the partisanship escalates.  And the lies get more brazen.  Especially on the political fringe.

Some lies bordered on the ridiculous.  Like Ronald Reagan created AIDS to kill homosexuals.  That George H. W. Bush flew to Iran on an SR-71 to meet secretly with the Iranians during the 1980 presidential campaign.  Why?  To negotiate with the Iranians to keep the American hostages until after the election.  That George W. Bush blew up the Twin Towers to start a war that would let him invade Iraq.  No doubt there was some political damage from these lies.  But the lasting damage from these ridiculous lies pale in comparison to the Big Lies that the Left perpetuates to this day.

Trickle-Down Economics

Ronald Reagan was president from 1981 until 1989.  When he entered office, the economy was in the toilet.  Double digit inflation.  Double digit interest rates.  Unemployment at 7.1%.  Reagan wanted to cut taxes and spending.  The Democrat controlled Congress wanted to increase federal spending to ‘stimulate’ the economy (ala Keynesian economics).  The Congress fought him.  But Reagan used the bully pulpit and appealed directly to the American people.  They liked his message which brought pressure down on Congress.  They gave a little.  Reagan got his tax cuts.  The top marginal rate went from 70% down to 28% by the time he left office.  The result?  The economy boomed.  They call it the Decade of Greed.  Because we were very materialistic and greedy.  And people lived well.

Yes, but at what cost?  That’s what the Left always says to refute Reaganomics.  What they deride as trickle-down economics.  They point to military spending.  They point to Reagan’s deficit spending.  And the growing federal debt.  The Left says this is what Reagan’s tax cuts have given us.  Growth and prosperity at the expense of future generations.  Which is perhaps the greatest lie of the 20th century.  But because the Left has repeated it so often, a lot of people accept it as fact.  Even though the numbers refute this grand lie.

When Reagan entered office, federal tax receipts were $517 billion.  When he left office in 1989, federal tax receipts were $991 billion.  This is an increase of 91.7%.  Or, to look at in another way, tax receipts in 1989 were 1.9 times the amount they were in 1980.  That’s almost double.  So, despite the great lie of the 20th century, Ronald Reagan’s tax cuts did NOT cause deficits or increase the debt.  Cuts in the tax rates brought MORE money into the federal treasury.  Excessive federal spending caused the deficits.  Federal spending increased from $590.9 billion in 1980 to $1,143.7 billion in 1989.  That’s a 93.6% increase.  Spending, too, almost doubled.  In other words, spending increased 1.9% more than tax receipts by the end of Reagan’s second term.  Washington was awash in money.  They just spent it faster than it came in.

Blame the excessive spending on Cold War defense spending or domestic spending.  The point is moot.  Because it doesn’t change the fundamental truth that Reagan’s tax cuts INCREASED federal tax receipts.  Or the lesson learned that tax cuts stimulate the economy.  Anyone saying otherwise is lying and trying to revise history.

Wither on the Vine

The Reagan decade ended prosperously.  Reaganomics were a success.  Which was a threat to those with a vested interest in Big Government.  But people liked Reagan.  And only agreed to vote for George H.W. Bush when he made the infamous ‘read my lips – no new taxes’ campaign pledge.  But Bush was no Reagan.  He wasn’t as conservative.  Or as charismatic.  He couldn’t sell conservative America (center-right) his less than conservative policies (center-left).  The Left, seeing he was no Reagan, maneuvered him into a position favorable to them on the deficit.  The Republicans wanted to cut spending.  The Democrats, of course, wanted to raise taxes.  And with the Democrats in control of the House, he caved.  He raised taxes.  And when he did, he became a one-term president.  The American people were so angry when he reneged on his ‘read my lips – no new taxes’ pledge, the third party candidate in the 1992 presidential campaign, Ross Perot, got 18.9% of the popular vote.  No third party candidate did better.  Exit polling shows he drew equally from both Bush and Clinton, though only 20% of his voters were liberal.  The rest were conservatives and moderates.  Perot brought a carnival atmosphere to the campaign.  Charts and props made for good TV.  This spectacle, though, drew critical attention away from Clinton’s past.  Parts of which moderates would have found objectionable.

Clinton ran as a centrist.  He lied.  As liberals are wont to do during a campaign in a center-right country.  Once in office, he swung to the left.  The American people were angry.  As people are wont to be when lied to.  At the 1994 midterm elections, the people spoke.  And gave both houses of Congress to the Republicans.  Newt Gingrich became the Speaker of the House.  He co-authored the Contract with America which was a Republican pledge to return America to a conservative path.  It appealed to the American people.  It’s what swept the Republicans into power.  And it scared the Left.  So they attacked it.  Called it the Contract on America.  And they attacked Newt Gingrich.  With a vengeance.

In 1995, Gingrich discussed an alternative to Medicare.  Number crunchers projected Medicare (and Social Security) to go into the red a decade or two out.  Medicare (and Social Security) is a big federal expenditure and a political third rail.  The Left uses the elderly as political pawns whenever they can.  Because that’s what Big Government does.  Get people dependent on Big Government and then scare the hell out of them by saying the Right wants to take their benefits away.  Gingrich was discussing high-deductible health insurance plans and tax free Medical Savings Accounts (MSAs).  The MSAs included an annual federal subsidy for seniors.  The plan would be appealing to seniors, Gingrich thought, because they could get better health care coverage with a private plan.  The MSAs and the federal subsidies would make it affordable.  Better care without paying more.  Who wouldn’t want that?  Once people made this choice voluntarily, they would move out of Medicare into a private plan.  Those comments in 1995 included this:

What do you think the Health Care Financing Administration is? It’s a centralized command bureaucracy. . . . Now, we don’t get rid of it in round one because we don’t think that that’s politically smart and we don’t think that that’s the right way to go through a transition. But we believe it’s going to wither on the vine because we think people are voluntarily going to leave it — voluntarily.

Wither on a vine?  Talk about a hanging softball.  There was no way the Democrats weren’t going to whack that one out of the park.  It quickly became ‘Medicare benefits’ and NOT the inefficient ‘centralized command bureaucracy’ that was going to wither on the vine.  The Left ran with it.  Another grand lie.  Repeated it at nauseam.  And scared the seniors.  Gingrich’s days were numbered.  And Clinton had a new enemy to demonize.  Which came in handy when no one wanted his policies.

The Lies that Keep on Giving

Big Government depends on getting as many people dependent on government as possible.  Medicare (and Social Security) is one program that does this very well.  And when Gingrich dared to threaten it, they destroyed him.  With a grand lie.  Like the grand lie that tax cuts stimulate deficits, not the economy.  Perpetuating these lies enables unsustainable government spending.  Threatens the future of all Americans.  And the longer it takes for the truth to come out, the deeper the hole we dig ourselves into.

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