Tax Cuts, Roaring Twenties, Farm Prices, Smoot-Hawley Tariff, Stock Market Crash, New Deal, Great Depression and the Great Recession

Posted by PITHOCRATES - November 6th, 2012

History 101

(Originally published March 20, 2012)

Tax Cuts and the Small Government Policies of Harding and Coolidge gave us the Roaring Twenties

Keynesians blame the long duration of the Great Depression (1929-1939) on the government clinging to the gold standard.  Even renowned monetarist economist Milton Friedman agrees.  Though that’s about the only agreement between Keynesians and Friedman.   Their arguments are that the US could have reduced the length and severity of the Great Depression if they had only abandoned the gold standard.  And adopted Keynesian policies.  Deficit spending.  Just like they did in the Seventies.  The decade where we had both high unemployment and high inflation.  Stagflation.  Something that’s not supposed to happen under Keynesian economics.  So when it did they blamed the oil shocks of the Seventies.  Not their orgy of spending.  Or their high taxes.  And they feel the same way about the Great Depression.

Funny.  How one price shock (oil) can devastate all businesses in the US economy.  So much so that it stalled job creation.  And caused high unemployment.  Despite the government printing and spending money to create jobs.  And to provide government benefits so recipients could use those benefits to stimulate economic activity.  All of that government spending failed to pull the country out of one bad recession.  Because of that one price shock on the cost of doing business.  Yet no one talks about the all out assault on business starting in the Hoover administration that continued and expanded through the Roosevelt administration.

Herbert Hoover may have been a Republican.  But he was no conservative.  He was a big government progressive.  And believed that the federal government should interfere into the free market.  To make things better.  Unlike Warren Harding.  And Calvin Coolidge.  Who believed in a small government, hands-off policy when it came to the economy.  They passed tax cuts.  Following the advice of their treasury secretary.  Andrew Mellon.  Which gave business confidence of what the future would hold.  So they invested.  Expanded production.  And created jobs.  It was these small government policies that gave us the Roaring Twenties.  An economic boom that electrified and modernized the world.  With real economic growth.

If an Oil Shock can prevent Businesses from Responding to Keynesian Policies then so can FDR’s all out War on Business

The Roaring Twenties was a great time to live if you wanted a job.  And wanted to live in the modern era.  Electric power was spreading across the country.  People had electric appliances in their homes.  Radios.  They went to the movies.  Drove cars.  Flew in airplanes.  The Roaring Twenties was a giant leap forward in the standard of living.  Factories with electric power driving electric motors increased productivity.  And reduced air pollution as they replaced coal-fired steam boilers that up to then powered the Industrial Revolution.  This modernization even made it to the farm.  Farmers borrowed heavily to mechanize their farms.  Allowing them to grow more food than ever.  Bumper crops caused farm prices to fall.  Good for consumers.  But not those farmers who borrowed heavily.

Enter Herbert Hoover.  Who wanted to use the power of government to help the farmers.  By forcing Americans to pay higher food prices.  Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates.  Thinking that a boom in the stock market was from speculation and not the real economic growth of the Twenties.  So they contracted the money supply.  Cooling that real economic growth.  And making it very hard to borrow money.  Causing farmers to default on their loans.  Small rural banks that loaned to these farmers failed.  These bank failures spread to other banks.  Weakening the banking system.  Then came the Smoot-Hawley Tariff.  Passed in 1930.  But it was causing business uncertainty as early as 1928.  As the Smoot-Hawley Tariff was going to increase tariffs on just about everything by 30%.  Basically adding a 30% tax on the cost of doing business.  That the businesses would, of course, pass on to consumers.  By raising prices.  Because consumers weren’t getting a corresponding 30% pay hike they, of course, could not buy as much after the Smoot-Hawley Tariff.  Putting a big cramp in sales revenue.  Perhaps even starting an international trade war.  Further cramping sales.  Something investors no doubt took notice of.  Seeing that real economic growth would soon come to a screeching halt.  And when the bill moved through committees in the autumn of 1929 the die was cast.  Investors began the massive selloff on Wall Street.  The Stock Market Crash of 1929.  The so-called starting point of the Great Depression.  Then the Smoot-Hawley Tariff became law.  And the trade war began.  As anticipated.

Of course, the Keynesians ignore this lead up to the Great Depression.  This massive government intrusion into the free market.  And the next president would build on this intrusion into the free market.  Ignoring the success of the small-government and tax cuts of Harding and Coolidge.  As well as ignoring the big-government free-market-intrusion failures of Herbert Hoover.  The New Deal programs of FDR were going to explode government spending to heights never before seen in peace time.  Causing uncertainty like never seen before in the business community.  It was an all out assault on business.  Taxes and regulation that increased the cost of business.  And massive government spending for new benefits and make-work programs.  All paid for by the people who normally create jobs.  Which there wasn’t a lot of during the great Depression.  Thanks to programs like Reconstruction Finance Corporation, Federal Emergency Relief Administration, Civilian Conservation Corps, Homeowners Loan Corporation, Tennessee Valley Authority, Agricultural Adjustment Act, National Industrial Recovery Act, Public Works Administration, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Glass–Steagall Act, Securities Act of 1933, Civil Works Administration, Indian Reorganization Act, Social Security Act, Works Progress Administration, National Labor Relations Act, Federal Crop Insurance Corporation, Surplus Commodities Program, Fair Labor Standards Act, Rural Electrification Administration, Resettlement Administration and Farm Security Administration, etc.  Oil shocks of the Seventies?  If an oil shock can prevent businesses from responding to Keynesian policies then an all out war on business in the Thirties could do the same.  And worse.  Far, far worse.  Which is why the Great Depression lasted 10 years.  Because the government turned what would have been a normal recession into a world-wide calamity.  By trying to interfere with market forces.

Only Real Economic Growth creates Jobs, not Government Programs

The unemployment rate in 1929 was 3.1%.  In 1933 it was 24.9%.  It stayed above 20% until 1936.  Where it fell as low as 14.3% in 1937.  It then went to 19.0%, 17.2% and 14.6% in the next three years.  These numbers stayed horrible throughout the Thirties because the government wouldn’t stop meddling.  Or spending money.  None of the New Deal programs had a significant effect on unemployment.  The New Deal failed to fix the economy the way the New Dealers said it would.  Despite the massive price tag.  So much for super smart government bureaucrats.

What finally pulled us out of the Great Depression?  Adolf Hitler’s conquering of France in 1940.  When American industry received great orders for real economic growth.  From foreign countries.  To build the war material they needed to fight Adolf Hitler.  And the New Deal programs be damned.  There was no time for any more of that nonsense.  So during World War II businesses had a little less uncertainty.  And a backlog of orders.  All the incentive they needed to ramp up American industry.  To make it hum like it once did under Harding and Coolidge.  And they won World War II.  For there was no way Adolf Hitler could match that economic output.  Which made all the difference on the battlefield.

Still there are those who want to blame the gold standard for the Great Depression.  And still support Keynesian policies to tax and spend.  Even today.  Even after 8 years of Ronald Reagan that proved the policies of Harding and Coolidge.  We’re right back to those failed policies of the past.  Massive government spending to stimulate economic activity.  To pull us out of the Great Recession.  And utterly failing.  Where the unemployment rate struggles to get below 9%.  The U-3 unemployment rate, that is.  The rate that doesn’t count everyone who wants full time work.  The rate that counts everyone, the U-6 unemployment rate, currently stands at 14.9%.  Which is above the lowest unemployment rate during the Great Depression.  Proving once again only real economic growth creates jobs.  Not government programs.  No matter how many trillions of dollars the government spends.

So much for super smart government bureaucrats.

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2012 Endorsements: Woodrow Wilson, FDR and Joseph Stalin

Posted by PITHOCRATES - October 30th, 2012

2012 Election

A Strong President and a Few Judges could defy Congress and the State Legislatures and Govern as They Please

Woodrow Wilson became president in 1913.  He was a progressive.  And didn’t much care for our Founding Fathers.  Or our Founding Documents.  The Declaration of Independence.  And the Constitution.  He referred to our inalienable rights as a “great deal of nonsense.”  Preferring to think of them as privileges granted by the government.  Like kings once did.  And as kings did not like limits on their power so did Wilson not like limits on his power.  For government was a living thing that could grow and do great things.  But to do great things it needed great men in leadership positions.  Like him.  Not hindered by the checks and balances of the Constitution.  Or state legislatures.  Or people clamoring about their inalienable rights.

This was the age of progressivism.  When smart people were in government.  Smarter than they ever were before.  People who graduated from the finest institutions of higher learning.  Or ran them.  Like Wilson.  Who was president of Princeton.  Progressives were smarter than the average American.  Who could take America to such great heights.  If they could only keep the dumb people from interfering with their vision.  And foolishly try to limit the power of the federal government.  So, as president, Wilson got a lot of legislation passed that helped make the federal government more powerful.  Such as creating the Federal Reserve System.  A central bank that could print money as the government needed it.  And enacting the first federal income tax since the American Civil War.  With this new found wealth the federal government only needed one other thing to take America to great heights.  Getting rid of the Constitution.

As much of what Wilson wanted to do exceeded his Constitutional authority he needed a way around that particular nuisance.  The checks and balances of the Constitution.  Especially after the Framers made it so difficult to add amendments.  Requiring a 2/3 supermajority in both houses of Congress.  And then ratification by three-fourths of the state legislatures.  Not a promising way to make radical changes in the structure of the federal government.  So Wilson’s solution was not to amend the Constitution.  But to go around the Constitution.  With judicial activism.  The president should appoint federal judges who share his views of abandoning the intent of the Framers.  Thus consolidating power into fewer hands.  So they could do more of what they wanted and less what the people wanted.  A strong president and a few judges along the way could defy the Congress and the state legislatures and govern as they please.  Reshaping America into their vision.  Not the Founders’ vision.  A progressive vision.  Where these few enlightened and very smart individuals would do what was best for us.  Even if we didn’t know what that was.

The New Deal was a Revolution made not by Tanks and Machine Guns but acts of Congress and Decisions of the Supreme Court

Franklin Delano Roosevelt (FDR) saw things the way Wilson did.  FDR was all for radical change.  And breaking away from the constraints of our Founding Documents.  And his New Deal did just that.  A radical change and expansion of the federal government.  And to help get the people to embrace these changes in the long-term he introduced Social Security.  To get even more people dependent on the federal government.  A program so convoluted he reportedly said that it would be impossible to overturn.  He empowered unions.  He introduced payroll taxes to fund Social Security.  He raised income taxes.  Even tried to implement a heavy progressive tax that topped out at 100% for the very rich.  And he introduced the withholding tax.  As people’s tax bills were to grow so large there would have been push back had they had to write a check at the end of the year for the full amount.  But if you took a little bit each pay period the total tax bill didn’t seem so high.

In FDR’s 1944 State of the Union speech he proposed a Second Bill of Rights.  However, when talking about our Constitutional rights he called them “inalienable political rights.”  By inserting the word ‘political’ those God-given rights of the Declaration of Independence became privileges granted by the government.  Which was similar to the way Wilson saw those rights.  As privileges granted by government.  And privileges that government could take away.  Thus emphasizing the power of the federal government over the individual.  Making it easier to impose those new federal taxes.  So what were those new rights?  A good-paying job, adequate food and clothing, recreation, high farm prices for farmers, freedom from unfair competition, a decent home, medical care, a pension, unemployment insurance and a good education.  Sound familiar?  If you’re an old Soviet communist they do.

Chapter X of the 1936 Soviet constitution included a list of Fundamental Rights.  Which included a right to a good-paying job, adequate food and clothing, recreation, medical care, a pension, and a good education.  Among others.  No surprise, really.  As FDR was a fan of Joseph Stalin and what he was doing in the Soviet Union.  The same kind of things he wanted to do.  But he didn’t have the same freedoms Stalin had.  There were such similarities that Whittaker Chambers, a Soviet spy in the US during the time of the New Deal wrote in his book Witness “the New Deal was a genuine revolution, whose deepest purpose was not simply reform within existing traditions, but a basic change in the social and, above all, the power relationship within the nation.  It was not a revolution of violence.  It was a revolution by bookkeeping and lawmaking…made not by tanks and machine guns, but acts of Congress and decisions of the Supreme Court…”  Just like Wilson envisioned.

If Woodrow Wilson, FDR and Joseph Stalin were Alive Today they would likely Endorse Barack Obama and Joe Biden

Alexander Hamilton believed in a strong central government.  Partly because he saw what a weak central government did to the Continental Army during the Revolutionary War.  And partly because he admired the greatness of the British Empire.  He wanted an American Empire.  Trusting that only men of virtue would serve in a republican government, he did not fear a federal government from overreaching, and abusing, their power.  Thomas Jefferson and James Madison thought Hamilton was mad.  And fought against him with every last fiber of their bodies.  Because they knew that they couldn’t trust future members of their republican government to be men of virtue.  As proven by Aaron Burr.  Who lived during the time of the Founding Fathers.

The modern Democrat Party traces its roots back to Woodrow Wilson and FDR.  Men hungry for power.  And having little virtue.  Today we call people like them Big Government liberal Democrats.  Who have continued to advance the growth and power of the federal government.  Approximately 20% of the population identifies themselves as liberals.  And yet the liberals have greatly advanced their agenda.  How?  In large part through judicial activism.  Using the courts to give them what the state legislatures or Congress won’t.  Such as when a state passes a referendum on a liberal issue, such as redefining gay marriage, the liberals use the courts to overturn that act of democracy.  Or any other that they disagree with.

Now that’s the kind of governing that Wilson and FDR would approve of.  Even Joseph Stalin.  More and more power centralized in the federal government.  The ability to overturn legislation you don’t like.  A revolution without violence.  It doesn’t get any better than that.  If Woodrow Wilson, FDR and Joseph Stalin were alive today they would likely endorse the Democrat candidates Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

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FDR Suppressed the news of the Soviet’s Katyn Forest Massacre so he could give Eastern Europe to Stalin

Posted by PITHOCRATES - September 15th, 2012

Week in Review

World conquest is a lot like real estate.  The three most important things are location, location and location.  And Poland has always been in a prime location.  If you look at a map you can see why.  To the east are Ukraine (bread basket of Europe), Belarus and Lithuania.  All one-time members of the Russian Empire.  As well as the Soviet Union.  To the west is Germany.  And Western Europe.  To the north is the Baltic Sea.  Making Poland the crossroads between Western Europe and Eastern Europe, Russia and the Soviet Union.  Prime real estate indeed.  From the days of Catherine the Great Russia wanted her land.  As did an Austrian about 150 years later.  Adolf Hitler.  Who conspired with another Russian to take her land.  Joseph Stalin.

Hitler and Stalin joined forces to conquer and partition Poland along the Narew, Vistula, and San rivers.  After the Allies gave Hitler Czechoslovakia.  Lying along the southern border of Poland.  So Poland felt the wrath of two of the worst dictators of the Twentieth Century.  As the Nazis invaded from the west and south (via Czechoslovakia).  And the Soviets invaded from the east.  They crushed Poland.  And committed some of the worst atrocities of World War II.  Which the Nazi-Soviet invasion of Poland officially kicked off (see AP Exclusive: Memos show US hushed up Soviet crime by RANDY HERSCHAFT and VANESSA GERA, Associated Press, posted 9/10/2012 on Yahoo! News).

The American POWs sent secret coded messages to Washington with news of a Soviet atrocity: In 1943 they saw rows of corpses in an advanced state of decay in the Katyn forest, on the western edge of Russia, proof that the killers could not have been the Nazis who had only recently occupied the area.

The testimony about the infamous massacre of Polish officers might have lessened the tragic fate that befell Poland under the Soviets, some scholars believe. Instead, it mysteriously vanished into the heart of American power. The long-held suspicion is that President Franklin Delano Roosevelt didn’t want to anger Josef Stalin, an ally whom the Americans were counting on to defeat Germany and Japan during World War II.

Documents released Monday and seen in advance by The Associated Press lend weight to the belief that suppression within the highest levels of the U.S. government helped cover up Soviet guilt in the killing of some 22,000 Polish officers and other prisoners in the Katyn forest and other locations in 1940…

The Soviet secret police killed the 22,000 Poles with shots to the back of the head. Their aim was to eliminate a military and intellectual elite that would have put up stiff resistance to Soviet control. The men were among Poland’s most accomplished — officers and reserve officers who in their civilian lives worked as doctors, lawyers, teachers, or as other professionals. Their loss has proven an enduring wound to the Polish nation.

Franklin Delano Roosevelt (FDR) loved Joseph Stalin.  It was the era of Big Government.  And Stalin liked what he saw happening in Italy under Benito Mussolini.  And what he saw in the Soviet Union under Joseph Stalin.  These were men who thought big like FDR.  And knew the great things the state could do if only not hindered by laws and elections.  He would have professed admiration for another Big Government type had he not made his ambitions clear so early.  Because Nazi Germany was National Socialism.  With a lot of the same kind of make-work programs FDR had in his New Deal.

But FDR was naive when it came to communism.  While others saw the true Stalin FDR lived in denial.  He liked Uncle Joe.  Knew that he could talk to this man.  That he could trust this man.  He was so naive that his own administration contained Soviet operatives.  Something he would refuse to even entertain the possibility of.  Because the future was going to be made by men like Mussolini, Stalin and FDR.  Then that horrible day came.  When FDR suffered his greatest shock and disappointment.  When the Soviets and Nazis entered into their non-aggression pact.  The Nazi-Soviet Non-Aggression Pact of 1939.  Where the Soviets agreed not to enter any war Germany started.  In exchange for the Poland Partition and the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.  Also, the Soviets agreed to provide Germany the raw materials she needed for her war industry that the British denied Germany with her blockade.  Making the conquests of Nazi Germany possible.  As well as her crimes.  So Joseph Stalin has more blood on his hands than just that horrible massacre in the Katyn Forest.  He has the blood of all those who died under Nazi aggression.  And Nazi oppression.  Including the twenty million or more Soviets who perished in World War II.  The innocents who paid the price for their leader’s ambitions.  As they always do.

Then the ultimate Polish betrayal came at the Yalta Conference.  Where FDR still trusted Stalin.  And gave him whatever he asked without asking for anything in return.  The part of Poland Hitler agreed to give to the Soviets remained Soviet.  Her western border was moved into Germany.  But the Soviets never left Poland.  Poland fell behind the Iron Curtain that fell from “Stettin in the Baltic to Trieste in the Adriatic.”  And all the conquered people behind the Iron Curtain remained oppressed throughout the Cold War.  Stuck in time.  Often hungry and without the basic necessities of everyday life.  Proving the point that presidents with aggressive domestic agendas tend to have inept and naïve foreign policy.  FDR may have won the war.  But he lost the peace.  And the price of losing the peace (44 years of Cold War) was as much if not greater than the cost of winning World War II.

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Great Depression, FDR, New Deal, John Maynard Keynes, Labor Unions, Collusion, Unemployment, Lend-Lease and Stages of Production

Posted by PITHOCRATES - September 11th, 2012

History 101

FDR increased the Power of Labor Unions and allowed Big Corporations to Collude with Each Other

Those in mainstream economics (i.e., Keynesian economics) studied the Great Depression and determined that the problem was a lack of spending.  Which is why they cheer FDR and his New Deal programs.  Because the New Deal spent enormous amounts of money.  And according to prevailing Keynesian thought that was all that was needed to end the Great Depression.  Spending.  And if the private sector wasn’t going to spend money then the government could.  And the government’s spending could replace all that economic activity that disappeared when the private sector stopped spending.  So the government spent.  But in those 10 to 15 years they failed to pull the nation out of the Great Depression.

According to Keynesian thought, and John Maynard Keynes himself who visited FDR in the White House, the government needed to spend money.  Even money they didn’t have.  Keynes urged the president to deficit spend.  To run huge deficits in the short term to kick-start the economy.  Keynes showed that it was the only way with a lot of figures and math.  FDR later said Keynes was more a mathematician than an economist.  Still, FDR spent.  But he did even more.  Believing part of the reason for the lack of spending was the evils of capitalism.  There was just too much competition keeping prices low.  And businesses selling at low prices couldn’t pay high wages.  Ergo to stimulate economic activity FDR wanted to increase the cost of doing business.

FDR increased the power of labor unions to help them negotiate higher wage packages.  And he allowed big corporations to collude with each other so they could raise their prices so they could afford to pay those higher union wages.  These two things really helped workers get better pay.  Some 25% higher they otherwise would have had.  This was a big win for labor.  And for the socialists and communists in America who hated capitalism.  (The 1930s were a time of nationalist, socialist, fascist and communist movements sweeping the world.  And strong elements in the U.S. wanted to join these movements.  The Soviet Union even had agents working inside the Roosevelt administration.)  In fact, they were angry that FDR didn’t take this chance to deliver the deathblow to capitalism once and for all by nationalizing some big industries.  Something FDR wasn’t willing to do.

FDR did Everything in his Power to Increase Wages & Prices because of the Massive Deflation of the Great Depression

Then came the alphabet soup of make-work agencies.  Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC) paid young unemployed men to do landscaping and other outdoor activities.  Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) paid young men to build dams and other water related activities.  Agricultural Adjustment Act (AAA) raised food prices by paying farmers not to grow crops and to kill off some of their livestock herds instead of bringing them to market.  National Industrial Recovery Act (NIRA) reduced unfair competition by letting big corporations collude with each other to keep their prices high.  Public Works Administration (PWA) was a whole new agency that built roads and bridges.  Works Progress Administration (WPA) paid for more construction work for men, sewing work for women and arts projects for the creatively inclined.  National Labor Relations Act (NLRA) gave more power to unions to keep their wages (and the prices of the things they made) high.  And many other alphabet agencies.

Most of these programs passed between 1933 and 1935.  So FDR put a lot of money into workers’ pockets during the 1930s.  And according to Keynesian economics all that money would cause an explosion in consumer spending.  Thanks to the Keynesian multiplier.  For every dollar a consumer received from the government it would generate up to $5 of new GDP.  Which was probably one of the mathematical equations Keynes discussed that so underwhelmed FDR.  And that formula is 1/(1-MPC).  Where MPC stands for the marginal propensity to consume (and if it’s 0.80 you get a multiplier of 5).  If a person receives $100 and spends $80 then their MPC is 0.80 or 80%.  This is basically trickle-down economics Keynesian style.  If the person above spends that $80 those receiving it will spend $64.  Those who receive $64 will spend $51.20.  And so on until these other people create an additional $400 of economic activity in addition to that original $100.

And FDR couldn’t ask for a better time to spend that money.  During the Great Depression.  He was doing everything in his power to increase wages and prices because of the massive deflation of the Great Depression.  So even though he was trying to raise prices they were still low throughout much of the economy.  Which meant a little bit of money bought a lot of stuff.  Because deflation strengthened the dollar.  Giving it more purchasing power.  Allowing buyers to get a lot of bang for the buck.  Especially those union workers making 25% more than they normally would have been making.  Talk about kick-starting an economy.  It was so easy.  They even had mathematical formulas saying this would end the Great Depression.  The Great Depression was as good as over.

Had President Obama not been Elected the Great Recession would have Ended some time in 2010

The unemployment rate topped out at around 25% in 1933.  Excluding the government make-work, the true unemployment rate didn’t fall below 20% until 1936.  And never got below 14% until 1941.  When America began tooling up to build the instruments of war.  To become the Arsenal of Democracy.  A few things happened during this time to greatly reduce the unemployment rate following 1941.  The war removed a lot of men from the workforce to serve in the military.  The Supreme Court found parts of the New Deal unconstitutional.  And there was a split in organized labor that helped conservatives (Republicans and Democrats) gain power in Congress.  And they shut down some of those liberal New Deal programs.  So while one war began (World War II) another ended (the war on business).

And how did things progress after they ended their war on business?  Pretty well.  The unemployment rate fell.  To 14.6% in 1940.  To 9.9% in 1942.  To 1.9% in 1943.  To 1.2% in 1944.  Then it soared back up to 1.9% in 1945.  With the war over the unemployment rate rose again.  But nowhere near where it was during FDR’s New Deal 1930s.  From 1948 to 1968 it averaged 4.7%.  Not too bad considering full employment is 5%.  So for the 30 years or so following the end of New Deal policies the economy returned to full employment.  And stayed at full employment.  The conservatives in Congress needed but 4 years to do what FDR couldn’t do in 10 years with his Keynesian, New Deal policies.

Yes, the war helped.  A lot.  It pulled a lot of men out of the workforce.  And American industry ramped up to provide the war material for war.  However, we financed that buildup with deficit spending and American war bonds.  As most of that war material went to our allies via Lend-Lease.  Which means we gave most of it away to allow others to fight the war.  So it was little different than Keynesian spending.  So why did the war spending work when all those alphabet soup make-work agencies didn’t?  Because of the stages of production.  Putting more money into consumers’ hands only helped the retail and wholesale stages.  It did not do anything to stimulate the manufacturing or raw commodities stages.  Especially with those high union wages and lack of competition thanks to the collusion to keep prices high.  All that did was pay the very few who actually had jobs very well.  While making it economically foolish to hire any new workers because of the exceptionally high cost of labor (25% higher than it would have been without the New Deal programs).  That high cost of business just slammed the brakes on economic activity.  Economic activity picked back up only after conservatives in Congress undid some of the damage of the New Deal.  In fact, had it not been for FDR’s New Deal the Great Depression would have ended some 7 years earlier.  Extrapolating this to the Great Recession today one could estimate that the Great Recession would have ended 7 years earlier had it not been for the Keynesian policies of President Obama.  So if the current recession lasts as long as the Great Depression and President Obama wins a second term and continues his anti-business policies the recession will last 7 years longer than it need be.  Or, had President Obama not been elected it would have ended some time in 2010.  Giving us full employment today instead of 14.7% U-6 unemployment.

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Tax Cuts, Roaring Twenties, Farm Prices, Smoot-Hawley Tariff, Stock Market Crash, New Deal, Great Depression and the Great Recession

Posted by PITHOCRATES - March 20th, 2012

History 101

Tax Cuts and the Small Government Policies of Harding and Coolidge gave us the Roaring Twenties

Keynesians blame the long duration of the Great Depression (1929-1939) on the government clinging to the gold standard.  Even renowned monetarist economist Milton Friedman agrees.  Though that’s about the only agreement between Keynesians and Friedman.   Their arguments are that the US could have reduced the length and severity of the Great Depression if they had only abandoned the gold standard.  And adopted Keynesian policies.  Deficit spending.  Just like they did in the Seventies.  The decade where we had both high unemployment and high inflation.  Stagflation.  Something that’s not supposed to happen under Keynesian economics.  So when it did they blamed the oil shocks of the Seventies.  Not their orgy of spending.  Or their high taxes.  And they feel the same way about the Great Depression.

Funny.  How one price shock (oil) can devastate all businesses in the US economy.  So much so that it stalled job creation.  And caused high unemployment.  Despite the government printing and spending money to create jobs.  And to provide government benefits so recipients could use those benefits to stimulate economic activity.  All of that government spending failed to pull the country out of one bad recession.  Because of that one price shock on the cost of doing business.  Yet no one talks about the all out assault on business starting in the Hoover administration that continued and expanded through the Roosevelt administration.

Herbert Hoover may have been a Republican.  But he was no conservative.  He was a big government progressive.  And believed that the federal government should interfere into the free market.  To make things better.  Unlike Warren Harding.  And Calvin Coolidge.  Who believed in a small government, hands-off policy when it came to the economy.  They passed tax cuts.  Following the advice of their treasury secretary.  Andrew Mellon.  Which gave business confidence of what the future would hold.  So they invested.  Expanded production.  And created jobs.  It was these small government policies that gave us the Roaring Twenties.  An economic boom that electrified and modernized the world.  With real economic growth. 

If an Oil Shock can prevent Businesses from Responding to Keynesian Policies then so can FDR’s all out War on Business

The Roaring Twenties was a great time to live if you wanted a job.  And wanted to live in the modern era.  Electric power was spreading across the country.  People had electric appliances in their homes.  Radios.  They went to the movies.  Drove cars.  Flew in airplanes.  The Roaring Twenties was a giant leap forward in the standard of living.  Factories with electric power driving electric motors increased productivity.  And reduced air pollution as they replaced coal-fired steam boilers that up to then powered the Industrial Revolution.  This modernization even made it to the farm.  Farmers borrowed heavily to mechanize their farms.  Allowing them to grow more food than ever.  Bumper crops caused farm prices to fall.  Good for consumers.  But not those farmers who borrowed heavily.

Enter Herbert Hoover.  Who wanted to use the power of government to help the farmers.  By forcing Americans to pay higher food prices.  Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates.  Thinking that a boom in the stock market was from speculation and not the real economic growth of the Twenties.  So they contracted the money supply.  Cooling that real economic growth.  And making it very hard to borrow money.  Causing farmers to default on their loans.  Small rural banks that loaned to these farmers failed.  These bank failures spread to other banks.  Weakening the banking system.  Then came the Smoot-Hawley Tariff.  Passed in 1930.  But it was causing business uncertainty as early as 1928.  As the Smoot-Hawley Tariff was going to increase tariffs on just about everything by 30%.  Basically adding a 30% tax on the cost of doing business.  That the businesses would, of course, pass on to consumers.  By raising prices.  Because consumers weren’t getting a corresponding 30% pay hike they, of course, could not buy as much after the Smoot-Hawley Tariff.  Putting a big cramp in sales revenue.  Perhaps even starting an international trade war.  Further cramping sales.  Something investors no doubt took notice of.  Seeing that real economic growth would soon come to a screeching halt.  And when the bill moved through committees in the autumn of 1929 the die was cast.  Investors began the massive selloff on Wall Street.  The Stock Market Crash of 1929.  The so-called starting point of the Great Depression.  Then the Smoot-Hawley Tariff became law.  And the trade war began.  As anticipated.

Of course, the Keynesians ignore this lead up to the Great Depression.  This massive government intrusion into the free market.  And the next president would build on this intrusion into the free market.  Ignoring the success of the small-government and tax cuts of Harding and Coolidge.  As well as ignoring the big-government free-market-intrusion failures of Herbert Hoover.  The New Deal programs of FDR were going to explode government spending to heights never before seen in peace time.  Causing uncertainty like never seen before in the business community.  It was an all out assault on business.  Taxes and regulation that increased the cost of business.  And massive government spending for new benefits and make-work programs.  All paid for by the people who normally create jobs.  Which there wasn’t a lot of during the great Depression.  Thanks to programs like Reconstruction Finance Corporation, Federal Emergency Relief Administration, Civilian Conservation Corps, Homeowners Loan Corporation, Tennessee Valley Authority, Agricultural Adjustment Act, National Industrial Recovery Act, Public Works Administration, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Glass–Steagall Act, Securities Act of 1933, Civil Works Administration, Indian Reorganization Act, Social Security Act, Works Progress Administration, National Labor Relations Act, Federal Crop Insurance Corporation, Surplus Commodities Program, Fair Labor Standards Act, Rural Electrification Administration, Resettlement Administration and Farm Security Administration, etc.  Oil shocks of the Seventies?  If an oil shock can prevent businesses from responding to Keynesian policies then an all out war on business in the Thirties could do the same.  And worse.  Far, far worse.  Which is why the Great Depression lasted 10 years.  Because the government turned what would have been a normal recession into a world-wide calamity.  By trying to interfere with market forces.

Only Real Economic Growth creates Jobs, not Government Programs

The unemployment rate in 1929 was 3.1%.  In 1933 it was 24.9%.  It stayed above 20% until 1936.  Where it fell as low as 14.3% in 1937.  It then went to 19.0%, 17.2% and 14.6% in the next three years.  These numbers stayed horrible throughout the Thirties because the government wouldn’t stop meddling.  Or spending money.  None of the New Deal programs had a significant effect on unemployment.  The New Deal failed to fix the economy the way the New Dealers said it would.  Despite the massive price tag.  So much for super smart government bureaucrats.

What finally pulled us out of the Great Depression?  Adolf Hitler’s conquering of France in 1940.  When American industry received great orders for real economic growth.  From foreign countries.  To build the war material they needed to fight Adolf Hitler.  And the New Deal programs be damned.  There was no time for any more of that nonsense.  So during World War II businesses had a little less uncertainty.  And a backlog of orders.  All the incentive they needed to ramp up American industry.  To make it hum like it once did under Harding and Coolidge.  And they won World War II.  For there was no way Adolf Hitler could match that economic output.  Which made all the difference on the battlefield.

Still there are those who want to blame the gold standard for the Great Depression.  And still support Keynesian policies to tax and spend.  Even today.  Even after 8 years of Ronald Reagan that proved the policies of Harding and Coolidge.  We’re right back to those failed policies of the past.  Massive government spending to stimulate economic activity.  To pull us out of the Great Recession.  And utterly failing.  Where the unemployment rate struggles to get below 9%.  The U-3 unemployment rate, that is.  The rate that doesn’t count everyone who wants full time work.  The rate that counts everyone, the U-6 unemployment rate, currently stands at 14.9%.  Which is above the lowest unemployment rate during the Great Depression.  Proving once again only real economic growth creates jobs.  Not government programs.  No matter how many trillions of dollars the government spends. 

So much for super smart government bureaucrats.

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FT108: “The political elite has exploited women ever since they gave them the franchise to vote.” -Old Pithy

Posted by PITHOCRATES - March 9th, 2012

Fundamental Truth

The Civil War feminized Men and gave us the Nanny State and the Progressive Movement

In all some 2-3 million men left their homes to fight in the Civil War.  Leaving mothers to raise their children on their own.  With Christian love and nurturing.  Especially the boys.  Whose fathers their mothers dearly missed.  And lived in fear that they would fall in battle.  So they smothered these boys with love and affection.  Made them feel special.  The center of the world.  The Civil War would claim some 630,000 lives.  A lot of them young fathers.  Who left their sons no father.  Only a loving and doting mother to raise them.  A mother who hated war.  And despised manly displays of aggression that led to that god-awful war.  Something they would protect their boys from.  Instead filling them with kindness and sensitivity.  Teaching them not to meet aggression with aggression.  But with understanding.  Empathy.  Kindness.  And if someone strikes them to simply turn the other cheek.  Like the good Christians they were.  Because manly displays of behavior led to nothing but trouble.  And war.

The Republicans won the Civil War.  And freed the slaves from their Democrat masters.  Giving them the franchise to vote.  And they, of course, voted for their liberators.  The Republican Party.  Anxious to keep this vast new Republican voting bloc voting for them the Republicans quickly passed the Fifteenth Amendment (1869), giving the freed slaves the Constitutional right to vote.  Forever.  And they did.  While the Union Army was still in the South after the Civil War to enforce the peace.  And protect the newly freed black population.  But after Custer’s Last Stand where the Sioux and Cheyenne decimated Custer’s army, that army was needed out West.  And when it left the South so did the security of black Republican voters.  So they stopped voting.  And the Democrats restored things the way they were before the war.  Only without the institution of slavery.

So the Civil War provided a couple of powerful lessons.  First of all, if a war kills enough men their sons will grow up feminized.  Taking on some characteristics of the fairer sex.  And shunning their more masculine traits.  Also, enfranchising a large group of the population can help you win elections.  These two lessons came together in the Progressive movement the late 19th and early 20th century.  When these fatherless sons grew up and entered politics.  And changed the nature of government.  No longer the limited government of our Founding Fathers.  But a larger and more active government to mother us.  A lesson Woodward Wilson was slow to learn.  As he opposed women’s suffrage until protesters made him change his mind.  Which may have played a part in the Progressives losing the 1920 election.  The Nineteenth Amendment being ratified just months before the elections.  Lucky for us he was slow in changing his mind.  For had he embraced women’s suffrage his party may have been rewarded at the polls by a lot of happy women.  Instead they voted for a Return to Normalcy with Warren G. Harding.  Who followed the advice of Andrew Mellon and cut taxes.  Igniting economic activity.  Giving us one of the greatest decades in U.S. history.  The Roaring Twenties.  Where limited government and free market capitalism modernized the world.  But it wouldn’t last.  For the heavy hand of government interfered with those free markets by the end of the decade.  Giving us the Great Depression.

As Women Empowered themselves with the Birth Control Pill they made Men Very, Very Happy

FDR exploded the size of government with his New Deal.  It was not JFK’s “Ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.”  Instead it was what can our new big-ass government do for you?  How can we now mother you?  And how can we get you to vote for us?  So we can continue our orgy of spending.  And the women’s vote no doubt helped.  Many of who were mothers.  With mothering instincts.  Who wanted to help and take care of people.  Who endorsed FDR’s policies.  The product of those feminized Progressive men.  Who worked diligently to change limited government into the nanny state.  To fill government with understanding.  Empathy.  And kindness.  Creating a new aristocratic class in the process.  Allowing these feminized men to achieve great levels of power and wealth.  Doing whatever they want.  Because they felt special.  The center of the world.  And superior.

The New Deal programs failed to pull the country out of the Great Depression.  World War II came around to do that.  Causing another generation to suffer through another horrible war.  This time putting some 13 million Americans into uniform.  Leaving a lot of mothers to raise their children.  Alone.  Raising them with a nurturing Christian love.  Especially their sons.  Whose fathers their mothers dearly missed.  And lived in fear that they would fall in battle.  So they smothered their sons with love and affection.  Made them feel special.  The center of the world.  To ease the fear and dread of the war.  Which killed some 400,000.  And wounded a million more.  A lot of them young fathers.  Leaving more sons with no father in their lives.  Only a mother who hated war.  And would raise their sons to hate war, too.  To love, instead, peace.  To be filled with feelings of kindness and sensitivity.  And to resist their manly urges.  Feminizing another generation of men.

These men came of age in the Sixties.  Who said “Make love, not war.”  And did.  Like their mothers taught them.  Well, sort of.  It was the age of free love.  The sexual revolution.  Where men had a lot of sex with lots of different women.  And when they weren’t having sex they were attacking the establishment.  Protesting the Vietnam War.  Capitalism.  Old white men.  Rich people.  Religion.  Pretty much anyone.  And anything.  Filled with rage because they grew up without a daddy.  Blaming the world for that.  (Don’t think so?  Listen to Pink Floyd’s The Wall for a real life example as Roger Waters wrote about growing up without a daddy).  Filled with hate.  Unable to love.  So they just had sex.  Lots and lots of sex.  With a lot of ready and willing sex partners.  Because women in those days weren’t getting married anymore to raise a family.  They were empowering themselves.  Using the new birth control pill to plan when they were going to have a family.  Making these men they were having sex with very, very happy.

Liberals encourage Women to Empower themselves and Explore their Sexuality as long as these Women are not their Daughters

The radicals of the Sixties went on to become university professors in the Seventies.  Continuing their antiestablishment and anti-capitalism ways.  Putting up pictures of Che Guevara up in their classrooms.  Preaching socialism.  And communism.  Teaching political science and journalism and prelaw students how horrible America was.  Itemizing every sin.  But glossing over every achievement.  Attacking religion and morality.  Saying, “Who’s to say what’s right or wrong?”  Encouraging more government spending.  And more government control of the private sector.  To make America the socialist paradise they sang about in the Sixties.  While high.  And to legalize the drugs they used to get high in the Sixties.  Attacking men for marrying women.  Making them nothing more than cooks and housekeepers.  And whores in the bedroom.  Encouraging women to burn their bras and have more consequence-free sex.  Which these university professors enjoyed during the Seventies.  Getting high and having sex with their students.  Doing whatever they want.  Because they felt special.  The center of the world.  And superior.

Life was a party in the Seventies.  And we paid dearly for it.  All our major cites became crime ridden.  Drug use soared.  Violent crime increased.  Including assaults on women.  For we were honoring and cherishing women far less in the Seventies than we used to.  Casual sex was in.  Making women just sex partners.  Again, something the men were really enjoying.  Especially those feminized men that went on into politics.  Who became liberal Democrats.  And feminists.  Protectors of women.  A handy title.  For it made the women look the other way every time these men cheated on their wives.  Or were caught in some sex scandal.  They were really enjoying life.  These men.  Running the government in the Seventies.  And controlling the news networks.  The old-boys club was never better.  But then the economy had to go into the toilet.  And the people finally said enough.  They voted for Ronald Reagan.  A conservative.  Who represented about 40% of the population.   And declared the nanny-state of liberalism a failure.  An ideology held by only 20% (approximately) of the population002E

Of course, the liberals weren’t just going to give up their privileged life.  Controlling all of that tax money.  And having whatever they wanted.  Including all that fun with young women.  They had to come up with some way to get a lot of people who did not agree with their ideology to vote for them.  Or who simply didn’t understand their ideology.  So they courted the youth vote.  Whose interests rarely went beyond the satisfying of their selfish desires.  Those they could so enamor in college.  By being cool.  What with these liberals being so unlike these kids’ parents.  Who said that there is nothing wrong with using drugs.  Or having casual sex with someone’s daughter.  The two things college students can really enjoy.  Especially the sex.  Which the liberals provided for them.  By exploiting these young women.  Showering them with birth control.  Even access to abortion.  Making a woman’s self-worth based on her attractiveness to men.  Or on her ability to sexually satisfy men.  They encourage women to think the sexier they were the better and more popular they would be.  And the happier they would be.  Encouraging them to have fun on spring break.  So what if they end up on some DVD having sexually explicit fun?  As long as they had fun.  And vote Democrat.  Because it’s the Democrats who make sure these young women can have fun.  And feel good about themselves.  By encouraging them to be sex objects for men to enjoy.  Especially those old men in politics.  The feminists.  Who say things like they admire the women’s movement.  Especially from behind.  They encourage these women to ’empower’ themselves and explore their sexuality.  With them.  For fun.  Their self-worth.  And their vote.  And these men don’t care what happens to them once they do.  As long as, of course, they’re not their own daughters. 

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Tax Cuts, Gold Standard, Roaring Twenties, Great Depression, New Deal, Great Society, Stagflation, Ronald Reagan and Class Warfare

Posted by PITHOCRATES - February 28th, 2012

History 101

The Twenties saw one of the Greatest Explosions in Economic Growth in History despite being on a Gold Standard 

There is a duality in economics.  There is Keynesian economics.  And the Austrian School.  The Keynesians believe in central banking.  Forcing interest rates below market rates.  Purposely creating a permanent but ‘manageable’ inflation rate.  And other government interventions into markets.  The Austrians believe in a strong currency.  Even bringing back the gold standard.  Letting the markets set interest rates.  Are against purposely creating inflation.  And oppose government intervention into markets.  So these two schools are sort of the Yin and Yang of economics.  The dark and the light.  The wrong and the right.  The Keynesian and the Austrian.

So it’s not surprising to see periods of history where these two schools bump up against each other.  As we transition from good economic times to bad economic times.  And vice versa.  When politicians change policies for political reasons.  Or when politicians change policies for economic reasons.  When the Keynesians are out of power and want to get back into power.  Or the Keynesians are in power, have destroyed the economy and the electorate wants to throw them out.  Starting shortly after World War I.  When John Maynard Keynes’ ideas came to light.  Economic policies that used smart people and an active, benevolent government.  Exactly what Woodward Wilson and his progressives were looking for.  Who wanted to quantify human behavior and improve it.  With an activist and scientific government.  To bless the United States with their brilliance again now that the war was over.  And return to the new enlightened way.  Helping people everywhere to be better citizens.  And fixing all the ‘faults’ of free market capitalism.

But the progressives lost the 1920 election.  The voters favoring Warren Harding’s message to return to normalcy.  And rejecting the progressives and their new scientific ways of government.  They wanted jobs.  And that’s what Harding gave them.  By cutting taxes.  Thanks to the advice of his brilliant treasury secretary.  Andrew Mellon.  And getting out of the way of businesses.  When he died Calvin Coolidge continued his policies.  And the Twenties roared.  It was one of the greatest explosions in economic growth in history.  Where credit was plentiful.  Despite being on a gold standard.  As the United States electrified.  And modernized.  Electric power.  Telephones.  Radio.  Electric appliances.  Movies.  Even on the farm.  Where mechanization provided bountiful harvests and inexpensive food.  The Roaring Twenties were great times for consumers.  The average American.  Thanks to minimal governmental interference into the free market.  And capitalism.  But, alas, that wouldn’t last.

Ronald Reagan won in a Landslide based on an Economic Platform that was Austrian to the Core 

It was the mechanization of the farm that began the process that lead to the Great Depression.  The average American benefited greatly from those low food prices.  But not the farmers who went into debt to mechanize their farms.  And when those European World War I soldiers traded their rifles for plows the American farmers lost some valuable export markets.  Farmers were struggling with low prices.  And heavy debt.  Some defaulted on their debt.  Causing bank failures in the farming regions.  Which soon spread throughout the banking system.  And when president Hoover came to office he was going to help the farmers.  For Hoover, though a Republican, was a progressive.  He brought back activist government.  He interfered with the free market.  To fix these problems.  Price supports for farmers to import tariffs.  Raising costs for businesses.  And prices for consumers.  Then the Smoot-Hawley Tariff launched an all out trade war.  Crashing the economy.  And giving us the Great Depression.

The 1930s was a lost decade.  FDR’s New Deal policies increased the size of government.  And their reach into the free market.  Which prolonged the Great Depression.  But nothing they tried worked.  Despite trying their progressive brilliance for some ten years.  It took World War II to pull the United States out of the Depression.  When the government at last allowed businesses to pursue profits again.  And got out of their way.  This surge in economic activity continued after the war and through the Fifties.  And into the Sixties.  With none other than JFK cutting taxes in a very Austrian way.  Yes, Kennedy was an adherent to the Austrian school.  But LBJ wasn’t.  And when he took over things changed.  The progressives were back.  Calling themselves liberals now.  And instead of the New Deal they gave us the Great Society.  Which grew the government even larger than the New Deal did.  And the Great Society spent the money.  Along with putting a man on the moon and the Vietnam War, government spending exploded.  The Keynesians were hitting their prime.  For once they could do all of the great things they always said they could.  And in the process fix a ‘broken’ free market system.  Finally having brilliant people in all the right places in government.  Making brilliant policies to help people live better lives.

And then came the Seventies.  The government was spending so much that they turned to the printing presses.  Because they could.  Thanks to central banking.  Even if it was hamstrung by gold.  You see, at that time the dollar was convertible into gold.  And with the Americans printing so much money and depreciating the dollar countries holding U.S. dollars said, “Screw that.”  And converted their dollars into gold.  That great sucking sound they heard in the Seventies was the sound of U.S. gold reserves getting sucked out of the country.  Well, even though the Keynesians hated gold they didn’t want to see all their gold reserves disappearing.  So Nixon did something very Keynesian.  And decoupled the dollar from gold.  Freeing the government at last to spend as irresponsibly as the Keynesians wanted.  And spend they did.  Turning the printing presses on high.  Depreciating the dollar ever more and causing double digit inflation.  Worse, all that Keynesian spending did nothing for the economy.  There was high unemployment as well as inflation.  An unusual phenomenon as you typically had one or the other.  Not both.  But this was stagflation.  A Keynesian phenomenon.  And you measured how bad it was by adding the unemployment rate to the inflation rate.  Giving you the misery index.  And the misery was pretty high during the Keynesian Seventies.  It was so miserable that they joked about it on Saturday Night Live.  With Dan Aykroyd impersonating Jimmy Carter.  Joking about high nice it would be to own a $400 suit.  And how nice it was just to make a phone call to get the printing presses to print more money.  The people thought Aykroyd’s Carter was funny.  But they didn’t care for the real one all that much.  And made him a one term president.  As Ronald Reagan won in a landslide.  Based on an economic platform that was Austrian to the core.  Including a promise to return responsibility to government spending by reinstating a gold standard.  (Which was a political ‘bridge too far’.)

The Electorate paying Federal Income Taxes fell from 80% when Reagan was in Office to about 50% by 2009 

The Eighties were so prosperous that the Keynesians, liberals and progressives derisively call them the decade of greed.  They tried everything within their power to rewrite history.  Calling the exploding economic activity ‘trickle down’ economics.  But the figures don’t lie.  Despite the liars figuring.  The inflation rate fell.  Interest rates fell.  The unemployment rate fell.  And despite the cuts in tax rates the government was never richer.  Tax revenue collected under the reduced rates nearly doubled.  But there was little cutting in government spending.  Flush with all that cash they kept spending.  In part to rebuild the military to win the Cold War.  Which Reagan won.  But all the social spending continued, too.  Which led to some record deficits.  Not the trillion dollar deficits of the Obama administration.  But large nevertheless.  Which provided the meme to explain away the prosperity of the Eighties.  “But at what cost?” being the common refrain.  They talk about the deficits.  But very conveniently leave out that part of how tax revenues doubled at the reduced tax rates.

Well, as time passed the Keynesians got back into government.  In the late Nineties as they kept interest rates low again to stimulate the economy.  Creating the dot-com bubble.  And the early 2000s recession.  George W. Bush cut taxes.  Brought the economy out of recession.  But then the Keynesians went back to playing with those interest rates.  Kept them artificially low.  Creating a great housing bubble.  And the Subprime Mortgage Crisis.

Keynesian economics have failed throughout the last century of trying.  And taxpayers clearly saw this along the way.  Voting for Austrian policies every time economic policy mattered.  Especially after another failure of Keynesian policy.  Every time their policies failed, though, the Keynesians had an excuse.  Supply shocks.  Liquidity traps.  Something.  It was always something that caused their policies to fail.  But it was never the policies themselves.  Despite Mellon, Harding, Coolidge, Kennedy and Reagan proving otherwise.  So they had to try something else.  And they did.  Class warfare.  They transferred the tax burden to the wealthier.  Reduced the number of people paying federal income taxes.  And gave ever more generous government benefits.  This took the failed ideology out of the equation.  Making it easier to win elections.  For when Reagan was in office more than 80% of the electorate were taxpayers.  And Austrian economics won at the polls.  The Nineties ended with only about 65% of the electorate paying federal income taxes.  By 2009 that number shrunk to about only half of the electorate.  Which gave the tax and spend Keynesians an edge over responsible-governing Austrians.  Because people who don’t pay income taxes will vote for policies to increase taxes on those who do.  Not because of concern over economic policy.  But just to get free stuff.  Something Keynesians learned well.  When at first you fail just buy votes.  And then you can continue your failed policies to your heart’s content.

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LESSONS LEARNED #58: “Presidents with aggressive domestic agendas tend to have inept and naïve foreign policy.” -Old Pithy

Posted by PITHOCRATES - March 24th, 2011

Social Security:  A Fiscal Disaster just Waiting to Happen

FDR’s New Deal programs were an abject failure.  Nothing he tried ended the Great Depression.  Proof positive that Keynesian Economics doesn’t work.  But this Britain infatuated the world.  Many still cling to the teachings of Keynes.  Because he empowered Big Government.  And people in government love that.  But government is pretty inefficient.  And not very good at doing things.  Take Social Security, for example. 

It started as a payroll tax of 1%.  They argued it was a paltry price to pay to help the disabled and retired.  Of course, the actuaries never saw birth control and abortion coming.  So as the population aged, the birthrate declined.  With the boomers starting to retire, the great pyramid inverted.  More people are collecting than paying in.  Today the tax rate is 6.2%.  That’s 6.2 times the FDR rate.  Which is an increase of 520%.  The federal government has increased the rate 20 times to save the program from bankruptcy.  And, guess what?  It’s STILL going bankrupt.  It’s one fifth of the federal budget.  And it keeps getting bigger.  And it’s such a political third-rail that no one will touch it.  Taxpayers will have to pay so much in taxes that they will have to live a very austere life to pay for people they don’t even know who are collecting far more than they ever paid in.  Because, according to the actuaries, people were just living too long.  That’s another thing they never saw coming. 

In 1937, the average lifespan was 60 years.  The retirement age was 65.  So, in other words, the average social security beneficiary would be dead for approximately 5 years before they were eligible to collect Social Security.  Now that’s how you keep a program solvent.  Make sure that most of the people paying into it die before they have a chance to receive benefits.  Today the average lifespan is about 78 years.  The retirement age is 67.  So the average retiree will collect benefits for approximately 11 years BEFORE he or she dies.  The actuaries NEVER envisioned this.  Damn the American health care system and their miracle drugs.  We’ve never lived longer.  Or burdened the government more.

FDR was a domestic policy disaster.  He ruined this country.  Any objective analyst would agree.  But we still love him for getting us through the dark years of World War II.  Of course, much of the world doesn’t for his gift of the Cold War to these oppressed people.

FDR loved Joe Stalin, Joe Stalin walked all over FDR

In the 1930s, there was some serious government tinkering going on with economies.  FDR in the USA.  Hitler in Germany.  Mussolini in Italy.  And Joseph Stalin in the Soviet Union.  FDR was on the same page, especially with Mussolini and his beloved Joseph Stalin.  He loved these guys.  Until they went rogue.  FDR had no problem hating Germany.  He was never a fan of the country.  But when Germany and the Soviet Union entered into a nonaggression pact to divide and conquer Poland, thus launching World War II, it broke his heart.  He and all his New Dealers were devastated.  Uncle Joe was the model they wanted to copy.  They loved this man.  And what he was doing in the Soviet Union.  Acting bold without a pesky Congress hindering him.  They loved him so much that they didn’t try all that hard to hunt down the Soviet spies within the FDR administration.  And there were plenty of them to hunt down.

But then God answered FDR’s prayers.  Hitler launched Operation Barbarossa, a massive invasion of the Soviet Union.  This part of the war became hell on earth.  The Eastern Front.  There cruelty knew no bounds.  Scorched earth policies.  And genocide.  Hitler’s SS did most of these acts of barbarism.  And the dreaded Einsatzgruppen took systematic murder to new heights.  The Eastern Front saw the worst cruelty of man.  But there was a bright spot.  For FDR.  He could welcome Uncle Joe back into the fold.  And did. 

Roosevelt was a master diplomat.  He could charm the pants off of anyone.  He had a gift.  And it filled him with great pomposity and reckless arrogance.  People warned him about Stalin.  And Soviet Communism.  But FDR poo pooed them.  He said he could talk to Uncle Joe.  Reason with him.  Give a lot and ask for nothing.  And he did.  FDR thought Stalin would then ask for nothing more and work with him in establishing world peace.  Just like a typical progressive/liberal.  And how did that work out?  Not only did the Red Army NOT pull out of occupied countries, they tried to occupy more.  Soviet Communism took Eastern Europe, tried to take Turkey and Greece and pushed into Iran.  We pushed some of these pushes back.  But the Cold War was on.  FDR had given so much that the Soviets had control over huge populations, condemning them to the misery of life behind the Iron Curtain.  And suffer they would for 44 long years.

Despite the fiscal carnage and world misery FDR left in his wake, he is still loved and adored by those on the Left.  People as pompous, arrogant and naïve as he.  Who still want to do things the Roosevelt way.  Despite the unmitigated disaster the FDR way turned out to be. 

Mismanaging Medicare/Medicaid and the Vietnam War

We can best describe LBJ‘s Great Society as doubling down on FDR’s New Deal.  And it was as big a disaster as the New Deal was.  LBJ was going to end poverty and racial injustice.  And pour federal money into education to make it better.  He failed.  Based on the Left’s attacks on the Right, we’re still beset by poverty and racial injustice.  (Even though we elected a black president.  Go figure.)  And that the teacher unions are constantly going on strike to get more money.  For the kids, of course.  And if we still have these problems it can only mean one thing.  The Great Society failed.

Included in the Great Society were Medicare and Medicaid.  Health insurance for the elderly and the poor, respectfully.  Currently, this is another 1/5 of the total federal budget.  And it has the same problems as Social Security has.  A declining birthrate and a growing elderly population that is living longer.  The actuaries crunched their numbers before the explosion of birth control and abortion.  So their projections are just as bad as FDR’s were.  The tax rate went from 0.35% to 1.45%, and increase of 314%.  Unlike Social Security, the death rate never ran in the black for Medicare/Medicaid.  From the get-go people were living 3 years beyond the average retirement age, consuming health care benefits.  Now the average American is living 11 years into retirement.  And a lot of them aren’t doing that by a healthy diet and exercise.  They’re doing it by consuming vast amounts of health care benefits.   LBJ took the problems of the New Deal and multiplied them by ten.  The cumulative effect of these two programs crashed the economy into stagflation and misery in the 1970s.  And if that wasn’t bad enough, he pushed the nation close to civil war by his mismanagement of the Vietnam War.

JFK got us into Vietnam.  But Johnson expanded our involvement.  And tried to manage it from Washington.  With the Whiz Kids left over from JFK.  A bunch of poindexters who tried to run a war by looking at numbers in columns.  Body counts.  And restrictions on the rules of engagement.  It was a horrible way to run a war.  It just prolonged it.  Created more American casualties.  And empowered our enemy.  Can’t bomb the North.  Can’t bomb their supply routes (i.e., the Ho Chi Minh Trail).  We did everything we could to help the enemy by giving them safe sanctuaries up the ying-yang.  And when we had a chance to deliver a knockout punch after the failed Tet Offensive, we did NOTHING.  Partly because Walter Cronkite said the war was lost.  Partly because of the hippies protesting on our college campuses.  And, of course, the race riots.  LBJ couldn’t understand it.  He had given so much with his Great Society and yet people didn’t love him.  All because of that damn war in Vietnam.  JFK’s war.  How he wished they never went there.  It was a distraction to his beloved Great Society.  And it was a bitch to pay for. 

Bad Domestic Agendas, Bad Foreign Policy

Unlike FDR, LBJ could not win his war.  Of course, FDR didn’t have hippies who hated their country protesting against him.  Just a bunch of communists in his administration who were simpatico with his Big Government view.  Because of Vietnam, though, the Left would never have the same fond feelings for LBJ as they do for FDR. 

Their foreign policy has made the world a less safe place.  FDR gave us 44 years of Cold War.  And LBJ weakened the United States by his failure in Vietnam.  Made us a paper tiger.  Made our enemies not fear us anymore.  They started taking chances.   Doubting our will to respond to their aggression.  Or, if we did, they figured we would just cut and run after a few casualties.  And that has been their strategy since.  Not to win.  But to make us quit.  By making us bleed.

Following World War II we had great prosperity.  Peace.  And happiness.  The 1950s.  Following Vietnam, we had stagflation and misery.  High crime rates.  Drug infestation and abject poverty in our big cities.  Abortion and birth control.  The 1970s.  All this despite the programs of LBJ’s Great Society that were to end all those woes.  And with the declining birthrate, the fiscal problems would only get worse.

Their domestic programs are pushing the nation ever closer to bankruptcy.  There appears to be no solution to the damage they’ve done.  Or will do.  Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid will either bankrupt the country.  Or ignite civil unrest as benefits are slashed.  Neither will be good for the country.  But this is what we get from presidents with aggressive domestic agendas.  Fiscal crises.  Domestic unrest.  And an unsafe world.

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FUNDAMENTAL TRUTH #55: “Liberals are all for trickle-down economics as long as the wealth trickles down from those who support liberals.” -Old Pithy

Posted by PITHOCRATES - March 1st, 2011

 Under Carter it was ‘in Government we Trust’

Mention Ronald Reagan in a room full of liberals and no doubt you’ll hear some derisive comment about trickle-down economics.  You see, liberals don’t like Reagan.  They liked Jimmy Carter.  But hated Ronald Reagan.  Because Reagan dared to say the king was wearing no clothes.  Metaphorically, of course.  But not Carter.  He clung onto the illusion of Big Government as the people’s savior.  Though a practicing Baptist, for Carter it was ‘in government we trust’.

Carter was a one term president.  Liberals may have liked him but the rest of the country didn’t.  Granted, he came into office with some pretty bad economic problems.  He can thank LBJ‘s Great Society for that.  The greatest explosion of government spending since FDR‘s New Deal.  And then Nixon decoupling the dollar from gold didn’t help.  The left doesn’t much care for Nixon, either.  Which is funny.  Because he governed as a liberal.  He spent money and grew government.  And when he decoupled the dollar from gold he called himself a Keynesian (i.e., a Big Government guy when it came to economics).  Carter’s misfortune was to follow all of this financial devastation.  Well, that, and the fact he didn’t have a clue about how to fix things.

Reagan did.  “Government isn’t the solution to our problems, government is the problem,” Reagan said in 1981.  And the warning Klaxons went off throughout liberal-land.   There was imminent danger.  And his name was Ronald Reagan.  You see, Carter did all the right things.  For those on the left.  And what did he get?  High inflation.  High interest rates.  And high unemployment.  They measured the economy with the misery index as we wallowed through the stagflation of the Carter years.  During the 1980 presidential campaign, Reagan asked the simple question heard round the world.  Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago?  Reagan went on to win the election.  So the answer was ‘no’.

Reagan Fixed the Economy and Fired Air Traffic Controllers

Reagan cut tax rates.  And the economy eventually exploded.  We said goodbye to stagflation.  And the misery index.  They were relics of the Carter years.  It was a new morning in America.  People had jobs.  They were happy.  Optimistic.  And this infuriated liberals.  Because Reagan’s conservatism flew into the face of everything they held dear.  And then came PATCO

The Professional Air Traffic Controllers Organization.  A federal government union.  They went on strike in 1981.  Which was against the law.  Government unions could not go on strike.  The strike shut down much of air traffic in the U.S.  This was big.  No business travel.  No sports travel.  No vacations.  No mail.  A small group of some 11,000 controllers shut down air travel.  And greatly disrupted the economy.  Reagan ordered them back to work per the law.  They refused.  He fired them.  And the left howled.

So you can see why liberals hate Reagan.  He was a destroyer and debunker of liberalism.  And the people loved him.  He won reelection with 49 states.  The man was more popular than sliced bread.  Worse, people were happy.  Whistling a happy tune while they went on their merry way.  Which is all well and good if you’re one of the ones whistling.  But when you’re part of that tiny 20% of the population that wants to run the other 80%, there was nothing to whistle about.  Reagan had become liberal enemy number one.

Reaganomics Replaces Failed Keynesian Economic Policies

So they attacked.  Then.  And now.  And they zero in on those tax rate cuts.  Sure, they say, the tax cuts stimulated the economy, but at what cost?  Huge deficits and a skyrocketing debt.  This, of course, is not true.  The cuts in the tax rates nearly doubled tax receipts.  The Democrat House (Tip O’Neil and his fellow Democrats had the power of the purse) just went on a spending spree with all that cash pouring into Washington.  Remember, all spending bills originate in the House of Representatives.  Defense.  Entitlements.  And all discretionary spending.  And when tax receipts nearly doubled with cuts in the tax rates, it proved that Reagan was right.  And liberals were wrong.

But they keep repeating the lie.  Hoping that if people hear it enough people will believe it.  Then they move on to trickle-down economics.  Supply-side economics.  Reaganomics.  They love to disparage this term.  Despite the fact that under Reaganomics, the 1980s was one of the most prosperous periods in American history.  So what is supply-side economics?  Well, think of it this way.  When do you live better?  When you have a job?  Or don’t have a job?  It’s pretty hard to pay your bills if you don’t have a job.  You can’t buy gasoline.  Food.  Clothes.  Electronic toys.  Etc.  So I think most will agree that life is better when we have a job.  And where do jobs come from?  From businesses.  That are pursuing a profit.  If they can make a profit they expand their businesses.  And hire more people.  Thus creating more jobs.  And this is supply-side economics in a nutshell.  They’re economic policies that are business-friendly to encourage their growth.  So they will hire more people.

Makes sense.  To the sensible.  But not to a liberal.  Because liberals are Keynesians.  They want to redistribute the wealth.  Take money from the rich.  And give it to the poor.  They believe that is how you create economic activity.  By giving other people’s money to other people so they can spend it.  And we tried it.  Under LBJ, Nixon, Ford and Carter.  Didn’t work.  Liberals will blame everything under the sun why it didn’t work.  But never the ideology itself.  Which is flawed.  Because higher taxes reduce profits.  Which hinders business expansion.  Which hinders job creation.  Which hinders economic activity.  And this is exactly what happened under LBJ, Nixon, Ford and Carter.  Which is why Carter was a one term president.

Trickle-Down is Okay as long as it Fills Union Coffers

The funny thing is that the left often supports trickle-down economics.  Whenever they are supporting the UAW.  They support high pay and benefits for unskilled labor on the assembly line.  Because it stimulates the economy. Yes, we pay these people a lot.  But they go out and spend that money.  And that pumps a lot of money into the local economy.  We’ve all heard these arguments.  Whenever liberals are defending high union wages and benefits.  Of course, liberals got so greedy that they killed the golden goose.  Assembly plants left the country.  Robots replaced workers on the line.  The few jobs remaining have nice wage and benefit packages.  But at what cost?  Hundreds of thousands of jobs were lost in the deal.  A terrible cost as jobs drive the economy.  The more the better.  While fewer higher-paid jobs just don’t help anyone but the few who have those jobs.

It’s the same thing with public sector workers.  No one has a better salary and benefit package.  For many it’s like getting two paychecks for one job.  For every dollar in pay they get something like $0.75 in benefits.  Mostly health care and pensions.  Teachers are often some of the greatest beneficiaries when you factor in all the time off they get.  There’s a reason why these public sector workers strike and never quit these ‘horrible’ jobs.  Because they can’t find a better job.  So when states and cities have trouble balancing their budgets because of out of control health care and pension costs they raise taxes.  Make the rest of us live on less.  To save these jobs.  For these good people.  Sure, we pay them a lot.  But they go out and spend that money.  And that pumps a lot of money into the local economy.

So that kind of trickle-down economics is okay.  But Reaganomics was nothing but tax breaks for the rich paid for by the working poor.  While fat union pay and benefits stimulated local economies.  A double standard?  Yes.  But there is a difference.  Trickle-down from job creators doesn’t generate a lot of union dues.  Trickle-down from union workers and the public sector do.  That’s why the liberals support unions.  Because liberals get a lot of that dues money.  And loyal foot soldiers to advance their agenda.

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LESSONS LEARNED #44: “Liberal Democrats have to lie because there are more taxpayers than tax consumers.” -Old Pithy

Posted by PITHOCRATES - December 16th, 2010

Lying to Make Future Liberal Democrat Voters

Ask anyone some questions about the Great Depression and they’ll probably get them wrong.  Why?  Because their history teachers revised history to make government look better.  Government wore the white hats.  And business wore the black hats.  Because their teachers were public school teachers.  And the teacher unions are one of the strongest unions in the country.  The government takes care of them.  And, in return, the public school teachers takes care of government.  By turning out as many future liberal Democrat voters as they can.

So what did our teachers teach us about the Great Depression?  Evil rich people caused it.  By speculating in the stock market.  And it was their speculation that caused the Great Crash which caused the Great Depression.  Rich business people bad.

Then Franklin Delano Roosevelt (FDR) rode into Washington and saved the day.  FDR expanded federal power and went to work to fix things.  He punished the rich (raised taxes).  Created a huge federal bureaucracy to manage the economy.  And spent money like there was no tomorrow.  Public works programs.  Even gave us Social Security.  He made everything better.  Big hearted government people good.

That’s the history in our history books.  The only problem is that it’s wrong.

Tax Cuts and the Roaring Twenties

This is the story told because it favors those who favor expanding government.  Big Government wants to tell us what’s best for us.  And our public schools want to shield our children from their parents.  Because they (and Big Government) are smarter than parents.  So they revise history.  And lie to our kids.

Really?  Come on, they’re not really lying to our kids.  I mean, what reason could they possibly have to lie to our kids?  Just look at the demographics.  The far Left, those in government who like to spend money and tell us how to live our lives, are about 20% of the population.  The other 80% have real jobs and pay taxes.  And this is a problem.  How do you convince 80% of the people (who pay taxes) to pay more taxes so the government can spend it against their wishes?  All the while having the government telling these taxpayers how they should live their lives?  Easy.  You lie.  And you lie to their kids.

There was an economic boom before the Great Depression.  The economy was roaring so strong that they called it the Roaring Twenties.  And it had nothing to do with speculation.  We were building automobiles.  Electrifying the country.  Selling electrical appliances.  And building radios.  This was no speculative bubble.  It was real and strong economic growth.  And guess what kicked it off?  Tax cuts.

Higher Tax Rates Shelter Wealth instead of Creating Jobs

They don’t talk about this in the history books.  Because no public school teacher or government bureaucrat likes tax cuts.  Because economic growth created by tax cuts sends a very simple yet powerful message.  We don’t need Big Government.

Following World War I, government was a bureaucratic behemoth.  With a huge federal debt.  Fighting world wars can do that.  The Progressives, who gave us Prohibition and other nanny-state-like things, liked that big bureaucracy.  They liked activist government.  But even they knew that a high debt was not good.  And being the zero-sum economists they were, they knew only one way to reduce that debt.  Higher taxes.  And their candidate for the 1920 election, James M. Cox, promised to do just that.  And he lost the election.  Proving that Progressives don’t understand economics.  Or the American people.  Those Americans who have jobs, at least.

Warren G. Harding won that election.  And his secretary of the treasury, Andrew Mellon, understood economics.  To find a better secretary of the treasury you have to go all the way back to our first one.  Alexander Hamilton.  Mellon understood business.  And understood rich people.  High tax rates did not bring in more tax money.  Why?  Because rich people know how to shelter their wealth.  But give them a lower tax rate where they can make and keep what they earn, they’ll invest that money and create jobs.  They’ll pay more in taxes (even at a lower tax rate) because they’re not sheltering their wealth.  Their employees will pay more in taxes because they’ll have jobs.  And this is what happened during the Roaring Twenties.  People were working.  Making durable goods (cars, electrical appliances, radios, etc.).  Times were good.  Very good indeed.

Government Activism Gives us the Great Depression

The United States became an economic juggernaut during the 1920s.  The Americans were eclipsing the Europeans.  We were not a superpower yet.  But the Europeans saw the writing on the wall.  They wanted to form their own union of European states to compete against the economic powerhouse that was the United States.  We were kicking ass and taking names.  And no one could hold a candle to us.  We were unstoppable.

Then Herbert Hoover became president.  He was a progressive republican.  He liked activist government.  Hoover was a Big Government Keynesian and wanted to use the powers of government to end the business cycle.  He believed high wages meant high prosperity.  And in parity between farm and nonfarm prices.  He was everything FDR would become.  In fact, the Hoover administration started a lot of the FDR New Deal programs.

Farmers had mechanized their farms.  They plowed more fields than ever.  And grew more than ever.  With bumper crops prices fell.  Normally not a problem.  You just sold more.  But the war was over.  European farmers were farming again.  Not only did they not need our crops, they slapped tariffs on our exports to protect their farm prices.  So farmers couldn’t sell enough to make a profit at the lower prices.  Farmers went bankrupt.  Farm loans went unpaid.  Farm banks failed.  The Federal Reserve failed to provide liquidity to help other farm banks in trouble.  More failed.  This rippled into the nonfarm banks.  Which contracted the money supply.  Business started to hoard their cash because of the tight credit market.  They cut back on production.  Laid people off.  Then the Smoot-Hawley Tariff went to committee in Congress.  Business responded, knowing that that higher tariffs on imported goods they used would increase their cost of production.   They hoarded more cash.  Cut back on production.  Congress passed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff.  Other nations respond by imposing their own tariffs.  This resulted in a trade war.  Business sales fell.  Production fell.  More banks failed.  Hello Great Depression.

Tax Cuts Stimulate Economic Activity

This is the part they don’t teach you in history class.  It was government involvement that killed one of the strongest bull markets in history.  And would prolong the Great Depression.  The growth of government and the anti-business climate created great uncertainty.  And that didn’t go away until World War II.  When James Byrnes (head of the Office of War Mobilization) allowed business to make fat profits if they could deliver the vast quantity of war material needed to defeat Hitler, Mussolini and Tojo.  And they did.  The Arsenal of Democracy won World War II.  Private business doing what they do best.  Business.

But liberals like to spend money.  Our money.  And tell us what’s best for us.  To do that, though, they need us to vote for them.  And telling us that they want to take more of our money while telling us what’s best for us won’t make us vote for them.  It didn’t help Cox to tell the truth in 1920.  And no other presidential candidate since.  Because the 20% of the population that agrees with them isn’t enough to win an election.  You need some of the 80% who have jobs and pay taxes.

History has shown tax cuts stimulate economic activity.  They did when Warren Harding cut taxes.  When JFK cut taxes.  And when Ronald Reagan cut taxes.  This truth doesn’t make a good argument for raising taxes, though.  So our public schools and Big Government revise that part of history.  And lie to our kids.  Until they bleat “Business bad.  Government good.”  Like good future liberal Democrat voters.

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