The Fed’s Quantitative Easing keeps the Big Three Building Cars

Posted by PITHOCRATES - December 29th, 2013

Week in Review

Governments love it when people buy houses and cars.  Because building houses and cars generates a lot of economic activity.  So much economic activity that central banks will flood their economies with money to keep interest rates artificially low.  To encourage people to go into great debt and buy these things.  Even if they don’t want them.  Especially if they don’t want them.  Because if you add in people buying things who don’t want them with the people who do that’s a lot of economic activity.  Which is why central banks keep interest rates artificially low.  To get people to buy things even when they don’t want them.  But do because those low interest rates are just too good to pass up.

Automotive jobs are union jobs.  At least with the Big Three.  Which is another reason why the Federal Reserve (America’s central bank) keeps interest rates artificially low.  To save union jobs.  Because they support Democrats.  And the Democrats take care of them.  By enacting legislation that favors union-built cars.  Placing tariffs and quotas on imports.  And doing whatever they can to encourage the Fed to keep interest rates artificially low.  So the Big Three keep building cars with union labor.  Even if they’re not selling the cars they build (see Spending on new cars may break record in December by Joseph Szczesny posted 12/25/2013 on CNBC).

Total vehicle sales are expected to be up at least 4 percent year over year, with the industry anticipating all-time record consumer spending on new vehicles, according to a forecast.

While new car sales started the month slowly, they are expected to finish strong, according to a monthly sales forecast developed jointly by J.D. Power and LMC Automotive. That would be a welcome development for industry planners concerned about a recent bulge in dealer inventories, which has led several manufacturers to trim production…

Vehicle production in North America through November is up 5 percent from the same time frame last year, with nearly 700,000 additional units. Even as inventory has increased, production volume remained strong last month, at 1.4 million units—a 4 percent increase from November 2012.

But there are some concerns that the industry may be turning up production faster than the market can handle. General Motors, Ford Motor and Chrysler continued to build inventories last month, and their combined supply climbed from 87 days at the beginning of November to 93 days by the end…

Some of the buildup can be traced to dealers’ ordering pickup trucks and utility vehicles before the planned shutdowns for model changes at GM and Ford. But those two makers also have decided to take more downtime at some of their plants this month in an effort to reduce excess stock.

Automotive news is often contradictory.  Sales are up they tell us.  Even when inventories are growing.  A sign that sales are not growing.  Because when people buy more cars than they build inventories fall.  But when people buy fewer cars than they build inventories rise.  So when inventories are rising typically that means sales are falling.  So this isn’t a sign of a booming economy.  But one that is likely to slip into recession.  Especially when the Fed finally begins their tapering of their bond buying (i.e., quantitative easing).  The thing that is keeping interest rates artificially low.  And once they do those inventories will really bulge.  As they do during the onset of a recession.

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The Easy Credit of Central Banks can’t Stimulate when Recessions are Still Correcting Prices

Posted by PITHOCRATES - July 14th, 2012

Week in Review

Central banks have caused most of our financial woes today.  Easy credit created a frenzy of buying.  Pushing asset prices skyward.  America’s subprime mortgage crisis was caused by easy credit.  Well, that, and bad government policy like forcing lenders to lend even to people who were unqualified.  And they had their government sponsored enterprises (GSE), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, unload those toxic mortgages to unsuspecting investors.  You add this to the easy credit of America’s central bank, the Federal Reserve, and it created an incredible housing bubble.  That just didn’t burst.  It exploded.  Sending the U.S. into the greatest recession since the Great Depression.  The Great Recession. 

As housing prices fell back to earth homeowners found themselves underwater in their mortgages.  Some refinanced.  Some just walked away.  Some went through foreclosure.  Leaving the country littered with foreclosed homes.  And all of this financial destruction was brought to us courtesy of the Federal Reserve and their easy credit.  Despite all of this devastation our central bank has caused us some people still think that central banks can stimulate us out of the Great Recession.  Perhaps they’ll finally learn the folly of their thinking (see Roubini: My ‘Perfect Storm’ Is Unfolding Now by Ansuya Harjani, CNBC, posted 7/9/2012 on Yahoo! Finance).

“Dr. Doom” Nouriel Roubini, says the “perfect storm” scenario he forecast for the global economy earlier this year is unfolding right now as growth slows in the U.S., Europe as well as China.

In May, Roubini predicted four elements – stalling growth in the U.S., debt troubles in Europe, a slowdown in emerging markets, particularly China, and military conflict in Iran – would come together in to create a storm for the global economy in 2013…

Policy easing moves by the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE) and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) last week did little to inspire confidence in global stock markets…

Bill Smead, CEO of Smead Capital Management, agrees that there is little central banks can do arrest the global slowdown.

Last week, he told CNBC that there is “virtually zero chance” that pump-priming by central banks will succeed, suggesting that policymakers should instead let the economic bust work itself through the system.

Yes.  We should let the economic bust work itself through the system.  Because that’s what recessions are supposed to do.  That’s why we call them corrections.  When rising prices create asset bubbles recessions come along and correct these prices back to where they should be.  Where the market would have had them had it not been for all of that easy credit.

Recessions aren’t pleasant.  But it’s the price we must pay.  Especially when we interfere with market forces to keep interest rates artificially low to stimulate economic activity.  Because the economic activity they stimulate is as artificial as the interest rates.  People don’t base their purchasing decisions on supply and demand.  They base them on the availability of easy credit.  Where people say things like, “I had no intention of buying a 3,000 square foot home for me and my wife but at these mortgage rates I’d be a fool not to.  And wouldn’t a Cadillac look just great in the driveway?  At these low interest rates I can afford both.  I mean, it’s not like I’m going to lose my job or anything.”

Of course people do lose their jobs.  And their homes.  And their cars.  What happens then?  Why, we have a subprime mortgage crisis.  And a Great Recession.  That’s what.

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