‘Scientists’ predict Climate Crisis after Studying 19 Years of the 4.5 Billion Year Climate Record

Posted by PITHOCRATES - June 30th, 2013

Week in Review

The earth is, what, 4.5 billion years old?  And climate ‘scientists’ can look at a 19-year snapshot of data and know everything that is going on with climate?  That 19-year snapshot represents only 0.00000042% of the earth’s total climate picture.  That’s a small percentage.  Very small.  Much, much smaller than 1%.  Statistically speaking it’s meaningless.  Yet by this 19-year snapshot today’s climate ‘scientists’ know all when it comes to climate (see Greenland, Antarctica ice melt speeding up, study finds by Matt Smith posted 11/29/2012 on CNN).

Two decades of satellite readings back up what dramatic pictures have suggested in recent years: The mile-thick ice sheets that cover Greenland and most of Antarctica are melting at a faster rate in a warming world…

The net loss of billions of tons of ice a year added about 11 millimeters — seven-sixteenths of an inch — to global average sea levels between 1992 and 2011, about 20% of the increase during that time, those researchers reported…

Long-term climate change fueled by a buildup of atmospheric carbon emissions is a controversial notion politically, but it’s one accepted as fact by most scientists. Previous estimates of how much the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets contributed to the current 3 millimeter-per-year rise in sea levels have varied widely, and the 2007 report of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change left the question open.

While the 19-year average worked out to about 20% of the rise of the oceans, “for recent years it goes up to about 30 or 40%,” said Michiel van den Broeke, a professor of polar meteorology at Utrecht University in the Netherlands. The rest comes from thermal expansion — warmer water takes up more space.

So in other words, 80% of the rise in sea levels has nothing to do with melting ice sheets.  Yet they predict doom and gloom that global warming will melt these glaciers and raise sea levels and wash away all of our coastal communities.  So global warming may be melting the ice sheets.  But not much.  Surely not as much as they melted after the ice ages.  When some glaciers retreated from nearly the equator back towards the poles.  And that happened before manmade activities began releasing carbon into the atmosphere.  Meaning that ice sheets melted far more before any manmade global warming.  But when your data sample looks only at 0.00000042% of the climate record you’re likely to miss significant things like this.

They concluded that Greenland and two of the three ice sheets that cover Antarctica have lost an estimated 237 billion metric tons, give or take a few billion, in the past 19 years. The ice sheet that covers eastern Antarctica grew, but only by about 14 billion tons — not nearly enough to offset the losses from the layer that covers the western portion of the continent and the Antarctic Peninsula.

They call it global warming.  Not warming in small pockets of geographic areas.  For if the warming was only in small pockets there would be no global warming.  No coming cataclysmic global climate disaster.  And nothing to worry about.  But if global warming is truly global then the warming would be uniform.  Global.  And surely equal throughout a small geographic region like Antarctica.

Okay, so they put the fear of God in us that the world will end if we don’t act within the next 5 minutes.  Okay.  So tell us, how much time do we have?

Don’t panic: At the current rate, it would take between 3,000 and 7,000 years for those regions to become ice-free, said Ian Joughin, a glaciologist at the University of Washington…

In July, researchers watched as a stretch of unusually warm temperatures melted nearly the entire surface of the Greenland ice sheet…

“Any model that someone would use to predict sea level rise is only really as good as the data that goes into it,” Shepherd said. “And the fact that our data is twice or three times as reliable as the most recent overarching assessment has to give some weight to improving the value of those model predictions in the future…”

“Right now, all of that is very complicated stuff, and we’re not at the point where all of that is integrated into the models we have now,” Schmidt said.

Really?  They look at a 19-year snapshot and can predict 7,000 years out?  Even though it’s complicated stuff?  I suppose that would be easy once you assume in your model that everything in the world will continue as they have during that 19-year snapshot.  Of course that would make it hard to explain how the glaciers retreated from near the equator all the way back to the poles a few times following the ice ages.  Ah, they probably just consider that a statistical anomaly.  Despite there being 5 major ice ages so far.  That lasted in the tens of millions of years.  Some even lasted in the hundreds of millions of years.  And according to the climate ‘scientists’ another one was right around the corner from the Seventies.  Before, of course, they changed their minds and started warning us about global warming.  Which was a lot more fun.  Because you couldn’t enact a lot of environmental regulations on business to stop the cooling.  But you can make an argument for environmental regulations to stop the warming.  Which is why they’re sticking to the warming.  Because it’s a lot more fun.

Interestingly, between these ice ages the earth may have been ice free.  Meaning that the ice sheets they’re wringing their hands over may not have existed during other interglacial periods.  Again, those ice-free times were BEFORE any manmade greenhouse gases entered the atmosphere.

It’s bad science that only looks at a 19-year snapshot of data.  Especially when other scientists have found a cyclical warming and cooling of sea surface temperatures every 20-30 years.  Something called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).  Perhaps this is why they looked at 19 years of data.  To keep their models predicting what they want to find.  Not what actually may be happening.  And something like the PDO could really throw a wrench in things.  Which is why much climate science is not science.  It’s politically motivated.  Where ‘scientists’ are funded by governments.  And these scientists conclude what these governments want them to conclude.  So they will keep funding them.  For after all, if they found there was no manmade global warming what would these scientists do for a paycheck?

www.PITHOCRATES.com

Share

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

FUNDAMENTAL TRUTH #57: “Environmental policy is a zero-sum policy; save the planet, kill man.” -Old Pithy

Posted by PITHOCRATES - March 15th, 2011

What do Cows and Dinosaurs have in Common?  They’re both a little Gassy.

Bovine flatulence contributes to global warming.  That’s a theory at least.  Cows fart.  It’s a byproduct of the digestion process.  Like with people.  As things break down chemical things happen.  It releases nutrients.  And gas.  Methane.  Until nothing is left but solid waste.  The nutrients help other things grow (people, animals, plants, etc.).  And the gas just dissipates into the atmosphere.  Or annoys your significant other when you do it under the covers.  We poop the solid waste.  As do cows.

But farts aren’t just fun and games.  Because the chemical compound for methane is CH4.  That’s one Carbon atom and four Hydrogen atoms.  In other words, methane is a hydrocarbon.  As in carbon footprint.  Yes, that’s right, methane is a greenhouse gas.  And cows are indiscriminately farting it out like there’s no tomorrow.  And the larger the human population gets, the more cows we raise for food.  Which means more cows are farting.  Which creates more greenhouse gases.  Which leads to more global warming.

So you can see it’s a problem.  All this farting.  I mean, it’s one of the theories why the dinosaurs went extinct.  Dinosaur farts.  Of course this raises an interesting point.  Currently, man is causing global warming by raising more and more cows to feed our growing population.  Among other things.  Man wasn’t around for the dinosaurs, though.  They killed themselves off without any help from man.  Which can mean only one thing.  That global warming predated man.  Or the dinosaur theory is a silly theory.

It’s Man or the Environment

So while smug environmentalists may enjoy the smell of their own farts, they want to cut back on bovine flatulence.  And the easiest way to do that is to just have fewer cows.  Reduce the food supply.  And gamble with our lives with that smaller food supply.  That’s because they worry about the planet today.  They don’t care what happened in the past.  Whether dinosaurs raised the earth’s temperature more than man has ever done.  Or that there were ice ages.  And that those ice ages ended.  Without man’s help.

Once upon a time the glaciers covered a lot more of the earth than they do today.  And when they last melted there were no man-made greenhouse gases.  Except maybe a camp fire or two.  And the occasional fart.  Man did less than at any other time in his existence to warm the planet.  Yet the planet warmed.  So much so that the glaciers moved farther than they have in the last 2,000 years of man’s existence.  Something warmed the planet back then.  And it sure wasn’t man.

But today it is only man who is responsible for global warming.  With his man-made greenhouse gases.  From our polluting industries.  Or from the cows we raise to eat.  Man has been the curse of this fair planet.  And the more advanced he got the greater his environmental destruction has been.  In fact, the environmentalist will say that the world was a better place before man came along to spoil it.  And a lot of what they do today tries to right this great wrong. 

Bigger, Heavier and Safer or Fuel Economy

Engineering is a balance between tradeoffs.  Take cars, for example.  There are two driving features of cars these days.  Safety.  And fuel economy.  They’ve made a lot of safety innovations in the last few decades.  Seatbelts.  Crumble zones.  Airbags.  Telescoping steering wheels.  And the list goes on.  And we added a lot of these because of that other feature.  Fuel economy.  To get better gas mileage we made cars smaller.  And lighter.  And a smaller and lighter car does not fare well in an accident with a bigger and heavier car or truck.  So the tradeoff between fuel economy and safety really became a tradeoff between fuel economy and people.

The environmentalist is okay with this.  In fact, they added to this tradeoff.  With the emissions equipment they want.  Catalytic converter.  Secondary air injection.  Evaporative emissions control.  Etc.  Pop the hood on a car today and much of what you see is for emissions control.  More equipment added to the car.  Some of which is belt-driven.  Increasing the car weight.  And the engine load.  Requiring weight reductions elsewhere to meet required CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) regulations.  Thus making cars less survivable in accidents.

Some will argue, though, that cars are safer today than when they were all big and heavy.  Well, yes, cars are safer today compared to the bigger and heavier cars we used to drive.  But if you put seatbelts and airbags into those bigger and heavier cars, they would be safer than the cars today.  How do we know that?  Because we have cars today that are a lot like those bigger and heavier cars of yesteryear.  We call them SUVs.  And they are very popular.  Especially with parents who have kids to drive around.  Because they are bigger and heavier and safer.  And parents are more than willing to spend a little more in gas to drive those big honking things around to protect their kids.

From Global Cooling to Global Warming

But there are other tradeoffs besides fuel economy and people.  There’s the tradeoff between energy and people.  As populations grow they need more energy.  The energy of choice is electricity.  Produced by power plants that burn fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas).  Fossil fuels are, of course, hydrocarbons.  Those poor, hated, misunderstood hydrocarbons.  When we burn these to make electricity we create greenhouse gases.  And you know what that does?  That’s right.  Global warming.  At least, that’s what the environmentalists tell us.

There was another alternative.  Nuclear power.  It’s clean.  But there was a big problem with that.  A movie.  The China Syndrome.  And then Three Mile Island.  Both in 1979.  A growing nuclear power industry came to a screeching halt.  And we haven’t built another nuclear plant since.  The partial meltdown at Three Mile Island released a negligible about of radioactive steam into the atmosphere.  But the safety features worked as designed.  There was no China Syndrome.  But there was a movie.  And that was enough.  Nuclear power became the redheaded stepchild of energy generation.

There wasn’t a lot of talk about global warming in 1979.  Back then we were still talking about global cooling and the approaching ice age.  Then things changed.  The Nineties were all about global warming.  So not only did we shut down the nuclear industry, they so attacked fossil fuels that opening a new power plant was a regulatory nightmare.  So by the end of that decade our energy demands were taxing our energy supply.  Blackouts were becoming more and more common.  The elderly and infirmed suffered during these power outages.  Some died from heat stroke because there was no air conditioning.  With no escape from the heat there was other trouble.  Hot temperatures created hot tempers.  Often resulting in violence.  Looting.  And murder.

The Smug and Pretentious

The theory of global warming is a theory.  And not a very good one at that.  As those emails leaked from the University of East Anglia clearly showed (they were massaging the data to support the theory).  And making policy based on this theory has consequences.  It has altered the free market.  Regulated our lives.  Reduced our liberty.  And killed people.

No surprise, really.  Because environmentalists hate man and his impact on the planet.  So a few deaths along the way is a small price to pay.  And it thins out the herd of some of the less desirable.  Those who drive.  And energy hogs who use air conditioning.  But the environmentalist will live in his air conditioned ocean-side mansion (Al Gore).  But that’s okay.  Because some people have to show the way for the rest of us.  Not by example.  But by telling us how to live our lives.  Because caring is enough for them.  Makes them special.  Better than us.  So these smug and pretentious can sit back and enjoy their big carbon footprints.  And spend their days enjoying the smell of their own farts. 

www.PITHOCRATES.com

Share

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Global Warming Responsible for Record Cold and Snow?

Posted by PITHOCRATES - December 26th, 2010

The Little Ice Age During Valley Forge Ended by Global Warming

Ice ages are cyclical.  The earth gets cold and glaciers move towards the equator.  Temperatures drop.  Growing seasons get shorter.  Wetter.  Winters are longer.  Colder.  And this happens a long time before the glaciers advance to cover habitable areas.

Sometimes an ice age teases us.  Sends out a little ice age some 10 thousand years or so before the real deal.  They fought the American Revolutionary War during one of these little ice ages.  The winter at Valley Forge?  It was so cold because of a little ice age.  All the winters during the Founding were pretty bitter and cold.

Of course, that little ice age ended.  It got warmer.  Without the aid of any manmade carbon.  Ditto for the full blown ice ages.  All of them.  They all ended.  Because it got warmer.  Without the help of manmade carbon in the air.

Global Cooling is Caused by Global Warming?

Now climatologists are saying up is down.  And black is white.  That circles are squares.  And that global warming caused that bitter cold winter at Valley Forge.

The Left will grasp at whatever straws they can grasp to maintain their assault on capitalism.  And that’s what their global warming activism is.  Anti-capitalism.  They’re all a bunch of people that couldn’t hack it in the real world and depend on government grants for their subsistence.  To pay for their pseudoscience.  And if there ain’t no global warming, then all their grant money dries up.  Which means they would have to get a job.  A real job.  Not some phony baloney job hidden from the real world at some university with a bunch of pretty young coeds.

So they’re getting a little creative with their explaining.  They acknowledge that it’s getting colder.  But it’s getting colder because it’s getting warmer (see Bundle Up, It’s Global Warming by Judah Cohen posted 10/25/2010 on The New York Times). 

THE earth continues to get warmer, yet it’s feeling a lot colder outside. Over the past few weeks, subzero temperatures in Poland claimed 66 lives; snow arrived in Seattle well before the winter solstice, and fell heavily enough in Minneapolis to make the roof of the Metrodome collapse; and last week blizzards closed Europe’s busiest airports in London and Frankfurt for days, stranding holiday travelers. The snow and record cold have invaded the Eastern United States, with more bad weather predicted.

All of this cold was met with perfect comic timing by the release of a World Meteorological Organization report showing that 2010 will probably be among the three warmest years on record, and 2001 through 2010 the warmest decade on record.

Yes.  It’s getting colder because it’s getting warmer.  Hard to argue with that logic.  Unless it gets warmer.  Because if it gets warmer, then it must be getting cooler.  Because global warming doesn’t make it warm.  It makes it cooler.  Why?  Because they just said so.  So, if it keeps getting colder, we have a global warming problem.  If it gets warmer, I guess we can breathe a sigh of relief because there is no global warming.

I get it now.

Wishing Thinking and Fear Keep Global Warming Money Flowing

I’m just funning with you.  That’s an asinine explanation.  And so is this.

As global temperatures have warmed and as Arctic sea ice has melted over the past two and a half decades, more moisture has become available to fall as snow over the continents. So the snow cover across Siberia in the fall has steadily increased.

They’ve been predicting that the coastlines would disappear as the ocean levels rise and reclaim coastal areas.  But they haven’t.  Seaside resorts have been where they have been for a couple of centuries.  Or more.  Key West is still not under water.  Neither is Martha’s Vineyard.  Or Malibu.  Al Gore himself bought a coastal mansion in a place with very high real estate values.  They’re real high because that area has been around for long enough to become exclusive and difficult to move into.  And Al Gore appears to be betting on it being there for the indefinite future.

The only way for there to be more water available in the ocean to fall as snow is for the ocean surface area to grow.  Because it is only the surface water that evaporates.  And unless the surface gets bigger, there isn’t more water evaporating.  And rich environmentalists can still live in their seaside resorts.

The sun’s energy reflects off the bright white snow and escapes back out to space. As a result, the temperature cools. When snow cover is more abundant in Siberia, it creates an unusually large dome of cold air next to the mountains, and this amplifies the standing waves in the atmosphere, just as a bigger rock in a stream increases the size of the waves of water flowing by.

Well, it was cold when glaciers covered much of the earth.  And glaciers are white.  So maybe that’s why the ice ages came.  Because the earth was covered by glaciers.  Which reflected the sun’s energy back into space.  Making it cold.  Of course, that’s silly.  Explaining that ice ages were caused by glaciers cooling the earth.  Because the earth had to cool first before the glaciers advanced.

Global warming doesn’t only happen in the summer.  Temperatures throughout the year are averaged to arrive at a ‘global’ temperature.  If we’re having record cold in winter, then the summers would have to be far hotter than they have been to net out the cold winters and still show warming.  And they haven’t been.  It wasn’t that hot last summer.  Or the summer before it.  I mean, I can remember some real hot summers I suffered as a kid.  Driving on a family vacation in a heat wave without air conditioning in the car.  Feeling my feet burn through my shoes as I walked on a hot asphalt parking lot.  And I grew up where we our winters were full of snow.

The increased wave energy in the air spreads both horizontally, around the Northern Hemisphere, and vertically, up into the stratosphere and down toward the earth’s surface. In response, the jet stream, instead of flowing predominantly west to east as usual, meanders more north and south. In winter, this change in flow sends warm air north from the subtropical oceans into Alaska and Greenland, but it also pushes cold air south from the Arctic on the east side of the Rockies. Meanwhile, across Eurasia, cold air from Siberia spills south into East Asia and even southwestward into Europe.

I like the show Scrubs.  One episode Dr. Cox was belittling J.D. for a complex diagnosis he made while ignoring a much easier and more obvious explanation.  I think he asked J.D. if he heard of Occam’s Razor, the philosophical theory that says the easiest explanation is the best explanation.  He said if you hear running hoofs, don’t think zebras.  Think horseys.  Occam’s Razor applies to weather, too.  If it’s getting colder out, it’s because it’s getting colder.  Not warmer.

That is why the Eastern United States, Northern Europe and East Asia have experienced extraordinarily snowy and cold winters since the turn of this century. Most forecasts have failed to predict these colder winters, however, because the primary drivers in their models are the oceans, which have been warming even as winters have grown chillier. They have ignored the snow in Siberia.

Forecasters have failed to forecast “extraordinarily snowy and cold winters since the turn of this century.”  There’s a reason for this.  Climate is complex.  And forecasters suck.  Forecasting is nothing more than a ‘best guess’.  Their models are complex guessing machines.  They can’t forecast what’s going to happen.  I mean, it was only a couple of decades ago they were warning us about an impending ice age.  This from the same people that are warning us of global warning today.

Bare Footprints Moved Glaciers Farther than Carbon Footprints

These pseudo-scientists can rationalize all they want but they can’t explain away some basic facts.  Glaciers come and go.  They moved a whole lot farther some 10,000 years ago than they have in the last few centuries.  And back then the only footprint man made was with a bare foot.  Much like many of those at Valley Forge during that little ice age.

www.PITHOCRATES.com

Share

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

FUNDAMENTAL TRUTH #6: “No one bitched about global warming when it ended the ice ages.” -Old Pithy

Posted by PITHOCRATES - March 23rd, 2010

ICE AGES AND glacial movement are complicated.  We know that glaciers exist.  And that they move.  They do so today. 

Scientific study has determined that we have had at least 5 major ice ages.  During these periods the glaciers moved out from the north and south poles.  During the last ice age, they covered many of today’s populated areas.  Most of Canada, Seattle, Chicago, New York, most of Great Britain, northern Europe and Moscow were all under ice at one time.  The ice moved closer to the equator during previous ice ages.  Ice may have covered the entire earth at one time.  Or come close to it.

During the cooling and warming of the earth, glaciers traveled great distances.  Close to 2,000 miles in North America during the last ice age.  And this great movement is cyclical.  It’s happened 5 times already.  And it will most probably happen again.

In front of the glaciers is permafrost (permanently frozen soil).   As the glaciers and permafrost moved forward, life moved away from the cold.  Species died out (the woolly mammoth, the saber-toothed tiger and Neanderthal man, for example).  The advancing ice pushed life towards each other and into conflict as they fought for the increasingly limited food supply.  When the cold receded, life followed, the newly warmed lands able to support life again.

There are various theories about what caused the ice ages and glacial movement.  One thing for certain, though, cold kills.  Warmth, on the other hand, allows life.  Warmth is good.

THE KEY TO civilization is the food supply.  Only when there was a surplus of food did civilization begin.  The surplus of food allowed the division of labor.  Farmers farmed.  Tool makers made tools.  Leaders led.  And soldiers protected the civilization.  None of this happens without a surplus of food.  If you didn’t have to grow food, you could do something else.  And people did.  And they created modern civilization as we know it.

Farming was the quantum leap forward in producing a food surplus.  The first civilizations grew grain and cereal crops in the fertile soil of river valleys.  An arc from the Nile valley up through the eastern Mediterranean, through Lebanon, Syria, and down the fertile river valleys of the Euphrates and Tigris valleys forms the ‘fertile crescent’.   Anchoring the crescent at each end are history’s first civilizations.  Sumer (#1) and Egypt (#2).

Fertile soil and a warm growing season allowed this.  Again, warmth is good.

THE EARTH HAS cooled and warmed.  There are many theories why.  No one can be certain.  But what we can be certain of is that warmth is good.  Cold is bad.  Ice ages are cyclical.  And the glaciers receded further in periods when there was not a single man-made greenhouse gas in the atmosphere.

We’re probably 50,000 years or so before the glaciers come back and cover civilizations everywhere.  If man-made greenhouse gases warm the world greater than the natural cooling mechanisms advance the ice, perhaps life will continue.  None of us alive today, though, will have to worry about that.  When the ice comes again, future generations will face that horror.  Until then, let there be warmth.  And life.

CHICKEN LITTLE SAID the sky was falling and there was panic.  And so it is with global warming.  Well, the sky wasn’t falling on Chicken Little.  And it is unlikely that man is causing global warming.  Global warming existed before man created greenhouse gases.  The ‘scientists’ who say the world as we know it will end unless action is taken are more politician than scientist.  Ever wonder why the solution to global warming is the growth of government?  To me, that sounds something like what a politician would say, not a scientist.

www.PITHOCRATES.com

Share

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,