Government Spending and Easy Monetary Policy haven’t created any Jobs
The new jobs report is in. It’s not good. Surprise, surprise (see ‘No confidence’ sparks rush to safety by Blake Ellis posted 9/2/2011 on CNNMoney).
The Labor Department reported that the economy added no jobs in August, while the unemployment rate remained at 9.1%. That was the worst reading since September 2010, when the economy lost 27,000 jobs.
Economists had been expecting a weak report given the recent debt ceiling gridlock, plunging consumer confidence and the downgrade of the United States’ credit rating in August. But what they got was even worse than expected.
These Keynesian economists have been predicting every kind of wonderful they could with every new Keynesian policy. But government spending and easy monetary policy haven’t created any jobs. If they did we’d have them. Jobs. But we don’t have them. After close to 3 years of trying. I mean, the economy is so bad that oil prices are falling.
Since a healthy economy typically spurs demand for oil, fears that another recession is around the corner are causing traders to worry about waning demand, said Flynn.
“Crude oil is looking at demand destruction right now,” he said. “With a lack of people going back to work and economic data as a whole as it is, it’s just not a supportive environment for higher prices.”
So the Obama administration has spent the U.S. to record deficits. And record debt. But because so many people are unemployed demand for oil is destructing. What a terrible tradeoff for cheaper oil.
Oil is the lifeblood of a healthy economy. So you know an economy is not healthy when people aren’t buying oil. In a country where chronically insufficient domestic supplies once raised the price of gasoline to over $4/gallon. Now any spikes in gas prices seem to have more to do with a depreciating dollar (thanks to all that easy monetary policy) than demand.
Keynesians see no Downside to Excessive Government Spending or Inflation
Still there are some who say the problem is not excessive spending. But spending that was not excessive enough (see Fatal Distraction by Paul Krugman posted 9/2/2011 on The New York Times).
Zero job growth, with unemployment still at nosebleed levels. Meanwhile, the interest rate on 10-year US bonds is down to 2.04%, and it’s negative on inflation-protected securities.
Aren’t you glad we pivoted from jobs to deficits a year and a half ago?
Krugman is a Keynesian. So by ‘jobs’ he means government spending. And by ‘deficits’ he means responsible government. He sees no downside to excessive government spending. Or inflation. As if the 1970s never happened.
A lot of People hate the Rich and Successful, especially Ivy League Elitists
But the 1970s did happen. And we had double-digit inflation at the end of that decade. Didn’t help. It didn’t make a dent in the unemployment numbers. Yet there are those who want to take that very dangerous road again (see View: Inflation Is Easy to Free, Hard to Control by the Editors posted 9/1/2011 on Bloomberg).
…But now, a growing number of voices, mainly on the left wing of the Democratic Party but also in the Federal Reserve, are calling for what is in effect default in slow motion. It goes by the name of inflation.
Inflation decreases the value of debts, like the $14 trillion owed by the federal government to lenders such as the government of China (and a lot of ordinary American savers, too), and it increases the value of assets, like houses. Thus it helps all debtors, from the federal government to individual homeowners who can’t pay their mortgages. Inflation has been running at an average of 2.4 percent over the past decade. After a couple of years of, say, 6 percent inflation, that $14 trillion would be worth closer to $12 trillion in current dollars. A $400,000 mortgage would be worth about $350,000.
Some may say, shrinks debt? Increases asset value? Well where’s the problem with that?
We call it class warfare. Of the worse kind. Creditors versus debtors. The poor versus the rich. The poor hate the rich because they have to borrow from them to buy a house. And they would love to not pay them back. But if you start doing this eventually the rich won’t loan their money anymore. So there will eventually be no more home ownership. Except for the rich.
It’s a story as old as time. And the U.S. The states were passing debtor laws. Favoring debtors. Harming creditors. And destroying legal contracts in the process. Which a nation built on the rule of law could not have. For if there are no contracts there is only force. Where the most powerful get what they want. And those not powerful enough to fight them off simply lose what they have.
This is one of the reasons why the Founding Fathers called for the Philadelphia Convention in 1787. To save what they just fought 8 years to get. A nation where no man is above the law. And contracts are legal binding. Still, there are a lot of people who hate the rich and successful. Who think contracts are merely suggestions. Especially Ivy League elitists who have no ability but arrogance and condescension. Who could never become rich and successful on their own. Preferring privilege over hard work. And have no problem trampling over people’s contract rights. Or Constitutional rights, for that matter. But that’s another story. For another time.
As it happens, a couple of years of 6 percent inflation is exactly what the leading economist advocating this approach — Kenneth Rogoff at Harvard — recommends. He is joined by Paul Krugman and by a growing number of economic journalists and commentators. Some of these people have been saying that inflation is no threat worth worrying about, because it has not appeared despite circumstances that ordinarily would have produced it. Now they say inflation is no threat because a little of it would actually be a good thing.
At Bloomberg View, we think that doing anything to encourage increased inflation is a very bad idea. People who advocate it are either too young or too old to remember our last adventure with inflation, in 1979 and 1980…
You can’t easily pencil in two years of 6 percent inflation and then go on your merry way. Inflation is self-feeding and takes on a life of its own. And it works only by surprise. If lenders all know that the government is going to induce or at least tolerate something like 6 percent inflation, they will demand something like 8 percent interest from borrowers. There goes the grease on the wheels. And it’s not just lenders: Labor negotiators will have their backs stiffened if they know that any dollar figure they negotiate will buy less and less. Manufacturers who know their inputs are going to be getting more expensive, in dollar terms, will raise their prices in anticipation, thus making inflation a self-fulfilling prophecy. Long-term planning becomes difficult to impossible.
This is what happened in the Seventies. It’s why there were double-digit interest rates. Inflation was depreciating the dollar so fast that it took near usury rates before anyone would loan money. It was great for people with money to loan. But horrible for people who had to borrow.
There is no Record of increasing Taxation and Regulation increasing Economic Activity
This is not just a condemnation of the Obama economic policies. This is a condemnation of Keynesian economics as a whole. They only lead to a bloated federal government. That grows at the expense of the job-producing private sector (see Needed: A Reagan Moment To Stop Our Decline by Lawrence Kudlow posted 9/2/2011 on Investors).
During the Bush years, the federal government increased from 18% of GDP to 21%. The debt went up $2.5 trillion, from roughly 32% of GDP to 40%. And now, during the Obama period, spending has moved even higher to at least 24% of the economy, while total federal debt has ballooned near 100% of GDP.
It’s almost a mirror image: The expansion of the public sector and the decline of the private sector. This is completely inimical to the American peacetime experience…
And all while jobs, the economy and stocks slumped over the past 10 years, the dollar dropped 37% and gold increased by nearly 500%, from $250 to nearly $1,900 an ounce.
We don’t have the kind of inflation today that we experienced in the 1970s. But it is certainly worth noting that a collapsing currency and a skyrocketing gold price are key barometers of a loss of confidence in the American economic story.
But the Keynesians aren’t worried. Mr. Paul Krugman belittles those ‘responsible’ people who worry about phantom demons like inflation. When it comes to spending, their constant refrain is to flame on. And only worry when inflation is burning white hot. Then they can simply tap their monetary breaks and make everything good again. Or so they think.
But there is a bigger problem. This ‘limited’ government of the Founding Fathers is growing into a leviathan.
My key thought is that the U.S. in the last decade has adopted a wrongheaded policy of government expansion — primarily spending and regulating — financed by ultra-easy monetary policy and rock-bottom interest rates.
Tax rates haven’t moved much. But the whole tax system is badly in need of pro-growth flat-tax reform and simplification. However, the expansion of spending and regulating is robbing the private sector of its entrepreneurial vitality. Here’s the new fear: More big-government spending stimulus from Obama’s jobs plan. More EPA. More NLRB. More Dodd-Frank. More ObamaCare.
And as the policy mantle for growth has swung to Federal Reserve stimulus, we are learning once again what Milton Friedman taught us 40 years ago: The central bank can produce new money, but there is no permanent production of jobs and growth from that pump-priming.
Big government financed by easy money is a lethal economic combination. It must be reversed. We should be reducing the regulatory and spending state while keeping money predictably stable (and even re-linked to gold).
The supply-side nostrum that worked so well for 20 years, beginning with Ronald Reagan, was low tax rates, light regulation, limited government, and a hard dollar. Gold collapsed between 1980 and 2000 as stocks, jobs, and the economy roared. The last ten years? We’ve gotten the policy mix completely backwards. The results show it.
And that’s something that the Keynesians can’t point to. When they had full legislative power (as they had since the Democrats won the House and Senate back in 2006), they can’t point to a historical record of success. Like the tax-cutting supply-siders can.
JFK cut taxes and saw economic growth. Reagan cut taxes and saw economic growth. George W. Bush cut taxes and saw economic growth. But there is no record of increasing taxation and regulation increasing economic activity. You know why? Because it doesn’t. If it did the economy would be booming now because the government has never spent or regulated more.
Let’s hope the Keynesians Concede Failure while there is still an Economy to Save
How many bad economic reports will it take before the Keynesians will finally concede failure? When will the Ivy League elitists stop hating people who are more talented and successful than they are? And when will the people that put them into power see that it’s only the power they’re interested in? Not the economy. Or our well being?
I hope these people come to their senses soon. While there is still an economy to save.