New York Mayor Bill de Blasio paid a lower effective tax rate than Mitt Romney and Warren Buffett

Posted by PITHOCRATES - April 16th, 2014

Week in Review

The problem with Republicans is that they are so greedy that they put money before people.  That’s why they oppose taxes.  Because they don’t want to give up any of their money.  At least, this is what Democrats say about Republicans.  Along with the ‘tax cuts for the rich’ mantra.  In fact, they castigated Mitt Romney for only paying an effective tax rate of 14% in 2011.  Even Warren Buffet decried the unfairness of the tax code where rich guys like him pay an effective tax rate of 17.4% while the poorer classes working beneath him paid on average 35%.  Even his secretary paid a higher tax rate.  And that just wasn’t fair.  Of course Buffet’s 17.4% in actual dollar amounts dwarfed the tax dollars of everyone working for him combined.  But that’s not the point.  No, the point is that Republicans are all a bunch of greedy, vicious, heartless bastards.

New York’s new mayor is a Democrat.  And he isn’t a greedy, vicious, heartless bastard.  In fact, he promised to raise taxes on those rich fat cats who pay as little as a 14% effective tax rate.  Something he would never do himself.  Because he’s not a greedy, vicious, heartless bastard.  He’s a Democrat (see New York Mayor Bill De Blasio Pays A Lower Tax Rate Than Mitt Romney by Hunter Walker posted 4/16/2014 on Business Insider).

Democratic New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio became a prominent proponent of progressive tax policy when he made raising taxes on city residents who make over $500,000 a year a cornerstone of his platform during his underdog campaign last year.

That’s why it raised eyebrows and drew some initial national coverage when The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that de Blasio had paid an “effective tax rate” of 8.3%.

That would put de Blasio’s tax rate substantially lower than the approximately 14% tax rate multimillionaire former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney was attacked by Democrats for paying in 2011.

Well, somehow it works out that a Republican paying a 14% effective tax rate is a greedy, vicious, heartless bastard but a Democrat paying 8.3% is not.  Go figure.

www.PITHOCRATES.com

Share

Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Disposable Income and GDP Growth

Posted by PITHOCRATES - February 25th, 2013

Economics 101

With less Disposable Income there will be less New Economic Activity Created

The key to economic growth is disposable income.  For when we live from paycheck to paycheck economic growth is flat.  It’s when we have disposable income that we can spend money beyond our basic needs.  Such as on a vacation.  A new car.  A television.  New windows, carpeting, appliances, furniture, etc.  Movies, ball games, dinners, the theater, etc.  New clothes, jewelry, shoes, accessories, etc.  Tennis rackets, skis, baseball gloves, hiking boots, fishing gear, etc.  Smart phones, MP3 players, iPads, laptops, etc.  Jet skis, boats, motorcycles, mountain bikes, etc.  Radio-controlled cars/helicopters/planes, Game Boys, Xboxes, Wiis, PlayStations, multiplayer role-playing computer games, etc.

Buying these things creates a lot of economic activity.  But we can’t buy any of these things unless we have disposable income.  So the only way to increase economic activity is to increase disposable income.  Which means there is a direct relationship between GDP and disposable income.

There’s been a lot of talk about real incomes being flat.  Even falling during the Obama presidency.  Which is bad.  For if median incomes are falling people will have less disposable income.  And with less disposable income they will be buying less of all those things that create new economic activity.  The things we enjoy.  That make our lives more fun.  More enjoyable.  And less miserable.  Those things that increase our standard of living.  And the quality of life.  So a flat and falling median income reduces our standard of living.  And our quality of life.  As we live from paycheck to paycheck.  Making barely enough to meet our living expenses.  And sometimes not even making enough for that.  Having to turn to government assistance to make up the difference.

We add Disposable Income and Discounted Government Spending to get the Net Add to GDP

The key to disposable income and GDP growth is jobs.  And the more jobs the better.  So job creation is very important.  Which means we need a business-friendly environment.  With a minimum of costly regulations.  And low taxes.  To encourage employers to hire more people.  So more people have jobs.  Those who do use their income to meet their living expenses.  And use their disposable income to create new economic activity.  The more disposable income they have the more new economic activity they can create.  So what’s the best way to increase their disposable income?  The same way we encourage employers to hire more people.  Low taxes.  We can illustrate this in the following table which is based on assumptions and approximations.

GDP Discounted Required and Average Calculations

The effective tax rate a person pays includes all taxes he or she will pay.  Property tax, sales tax, gas tax, telecommunication tax, liquor tax, cigarette tax, import tariff, dog license tax, fishing license tax, luxury tax, watercraft registration tax, vehicle sales tax, state income tax, federal income tax, Social Security tax, Medicare tax, capital gains tax, etc.   Median income and living expenses are constants.  We subtract taxes from median income to get net income.  Subtracting living expenses from net income gives us disposable income.  We then calculate these numbers for additional effective tax rates that are multiples of 4%.

We add disposable income and stimulus together to get the net add to GDP.  What we call ‘stimulus’ is a percentage of all those taxes reentering the economy through government spending.  In our example 80% of those taxes find their way back into the economy.  While 20% is lost through waste and inefficiency.  This stimulus can pay for a government worker, a government contractor or a direct government benefit that helps people meet their living expenses.  This redistributed income is money that the income earner would have spent had it not been taxed away.  Instead, someone else will spend it.  But not as efficiently.  As it must first pass through an inefficient government bureaucracy.

Giving People Benefits does not Replace Disposable Income

We extend the table out to an effective tax rate of 52% and graph the results.  We see that as the effective tax rate increases disposable income falls.  As does GDP growth.  Showing that increasing taxation reduces GDP.  That said, average GDP growth has been approximately 3% during the latter half of the 20th Century.  Despite increasing taxation reducing GDP.  So how do we reconcile a falling GDP and a 3% GDP growth?  With aggressive increases in productivity.  And investments in capital equipment.  Allowing business to produce more with less.  Resulting in a rising real GDP growth rate.  As shown in the following graph.

GDP Discounted Required and Average

In order to maintain a 3% growth rate in GDP we need a rising real GDP growth rate (in one America doing very well despite government) to offset the falling discounted GDP growth rate due to falling disposable income (in another America not doing well because of government).  When we add the real and the discounted GDP growth rates together we get the constant 3% of average GDP growth.  Which is why businesses have never been more profitable despite stagnant economic growth during President Obama’s time in office.  They’re doing well because they’re producing more with less by exchanging people for new capital equipment.  Hence the higher profitability along with chronic high unemployment.  With more unemployed workers than available jobs there is a downward pressure on median income.  That combined with higher personal effective taxes has greatly reduced disposable income.  And new economic growth.  Which subtracts a lot away from that real GDP growth.

Giving people benefits does not replace disposable income.  For government assistance helps people meet basic living expenses.  While having a job offers the ability to earn disposable income.  Which is key for new economic growth.  If we bring the effective tax rate down the discounted GDP growth graph will flatten out.  As this happens the gains in productivity would remain.  Leaving real GDP growth unchanged.  With real GDP growth unchanged and discounted GDP growth decreasing the average annual GDP growth would therefore increase.  And approach real GDP growth.  With double digit GDP growth tax revenues would soar even at lower effective tax rates.  Requiring less borrowing.  Which would give us smaller deficits.  While reducing the growth in the federal debt.  Perhaps even reducing the debt.  Solving all of our financial problems.  By simply cutting taxes.  And the spending those taxes fund.

www.PITHOCRATES.com

Share

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

FUNDAMENTAL TRUTH #85: “The rich pay more than their fair share of income taxes to provide tax relief for the poor and middle class.” –Old Pithy

Posted by PITHOCRATES - September 27th, 2011

The ‘Rich’ Obama wants to Tax more already Pays the Majority of all Federal Income Taxes

Some people complain that too much wealth is concentrated in too few hands.  And they say that isn’t fair.  But you know what else is concentrated into too few hands?  Federal income taxes.  That is, who pays these taxes.  The top 10 percent of income earners pay about 70% of the taxes.  That doesn’t sound fair.  This 10% paying 70% of the tax bill.  While 90% only pays 30% of the tax bill.  No, this isn’t fair.  But that’s okay.  At least that’s what the 90% think.  I mean, we don’t hear them demanding to pay their fair share of federal income taxes, do we?

Let’s look at some of the numbers.  From 2008 tax returns (see Table 2.  Returns with Modified Taxable Income [1]: Tax Generated, by Rate).

The first thing that jumps out at you is that the poor pay no income taxes.  Only the middle class and rich do.  The biggest income groups of taxpayers are those earning from $100,000 to $200,000.  And from $200,000 to $500,000.

Are these factory workers?  No.  Are these construction workers?  No.  These aren’t blue collar jobs.  These are white collar jobs.  And small business owners.  Currently in the crosshairs of the Obama administration.  Those ‘rich’ people who aren’t paying their fair share of taxes.  People who in fact pay the majority of all federal income taxes.

Those who don’t Pay Income Taxes are Dictating Tax Policy on those who Do

So why is president Obama so vilifying these most generous ‘rich’ people?  Because it’s the largest group of ‘rich’ people whose taxes he can raise.  From the same data let’s take a look at the distribution of income earners.  By looking at the number of actual tax returns filed by each group.

Interesting.  The distribution has shifted down to the lower income groups.  There are very few people earning $1 million or more and yet they pay a substantial amount of the total federal income tax.  While there are a great number of people earning less than $50 thousand who pay little to no federal income tax.

There’s another way to look at these numbers.  One person one vote.  Despite the amount of money you earn.  And the amount of taxes you pay.  Or the lack of taxes you pay.  So in essence what we have is those who don’t pay income taxes dictating tax policy on those who do.  Hence the appeal of class warfare.  Tax the rich?  Raise tax rates on high earners?  A millionaire’s tax?  Absolutely.  As long as I remain in the near 50% of those people who pay no income taxes.

Small Business Owners Earn a lot because they’re both CEO and Investor

There’s yet another way to look at these numbers.  With 70% of all taxes paid by those earning $100,000 or more let’s focus on these people.  We’ve summarized this data here (Taxable Income and Income Tax Generated are in thousands of dollars):

The sweet spot of tax revenue are the people earning from $100,000 to $200,000.  Who pay an effective tax rate of 17.91%.  And a good chunk of these are small business owners.  Who have S corporations.  Where their earnings pass directly to their private income tax return.  That’s why they earn so much.  Because they’re both CEO.  And equity investor.  But they don’t use those retained earnings to live an extravagant lifestyle.  No.  Instead, they use them to grow their business.  And create jobs.

Raising the tax rate on those retained earnings will not help grow these businesses.  In fact, it will prevent these businesses from growing.  And you don’t want to do that.  Because not only do these small business owners pay as much in federal income taxes as all the millionaires do.  They also create the majority of jobs in the American economy.

If you want Tax Policy that will Raise Tax Revenue don’t Raise Tax Rates on Job Creators

Is the purpose of tax policy to raise tax revenue?  Or politics?  When about half of the people pay no income taxes there is definitely a political aspect in taxing the rich.  But exploiting the political capital in the tax code defeats the purpose of the tax code.  Raising taxes.  Let’s look at a simple example.

Everyone agrees that lowering taxes helps businesses more than raising taxes.  That’s why even President Obama extended the Bush tax cuts to prevent a double-dip recession.  So let’s look at some numbers.  Let’s say we make it more business friendly out there.  Cut back on some onerous regulations that cost businesses.  Such as repealing Obamacare. Or some other costly legislation(s).  Not cutting taxes mind you.  Just cutting the costs on the job creators.

If we do this business-friendly deregulation let’s assume businesses respond.  They do well and grow.  And these small business owners earn more income.  So much that about 20% of them move up from the $100,000 to $200,000 income group to the $200,000 to $500,000 income group.  This group pays an effective tax rate of 23.3%.  Federal income taxes would increase approximately $100 billion with this growth in income.  Or an increase of 23.3%.  And that’s without cutting taxes.  Imagine what they could do if did cut taxes.

If you want good tax policy.  If you want tax policy that will raise tax revenue.  Don’t raise tax rates on job creators.  Instead, cut their costs.  Cut the cost of job creation.  Then watch the jobs they’ll create.  And the tax revenue they’ll pay.  Both the small business owners.  And their new employees.

 www.PITHOCRATES.com

Share

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The Obama Budget: High Taxes, Reckless Spending and Lies

Posted by PITHOCRATES - April 18th, 2011

Is it how Much we Give or how Much we Could Give that Counts?

Imagine, if you would, two people standing in front of an orphanage.  There’s a donation box there.  And we can see these caring people actually count out their money before placing it in the donation box.  One counts out $20.  The other counts out $100.  Who is more generous?

Is this a trick question, you ask?  Well, yes, I guess it is.  You see, normal people, like you and me, are inclined to say the person donating the $100 is more generous.  I mean, $100 is more than $20.  $100 buys more than $20.  $100 will do more for orphans than $20.  So it sure looks like to us, the normal people, that the $100 donation is the more generous donation.  But that’s not the way government would see it.  For I left out one important piece of information.  I didn’t say how wealthy these people are.  So let’s do that now.  The $20 donation is from a UAW line worker.  The $100 donation is from a rich business owner.  Now who is more generous?

$100 will still buy more than the $20 for the orphans, but $100 is a smaller percentage of the business owner’s salary.  The $20 donation is a larger percentage of the UAW line worker’s salary.  So, people in government, and those on the Left, will say the $20 donation is the more generous donation.  Even though it will buy less for the orphans.

We Pay Tax Dollars, not Tax Rates

This is a big problem clouding the debate over ‘fair’ taxation.  Devious politicians point to tax rates and cry that the rich aren’t paying their fair share.  When, in fact, they are paying far more tax dollars than those less rich.  Even in an attack on these rich bastards shows this (see Only Little People Pay Taxes by Dave Gilson posted 4/18/2011 on Mother Jones).

Leona Helmsley’s distaste for paying taxes eventually landed her in federal prison. But the rich have little need to break the law to avoid the tax collector. As Martin A. Sullivan of Tax.com recently calculated, a New York janitor making slightly more than $33,000 a year pays an effective tax rate of nearly 25%. And the effective tax rate for a resident of the Park Avenue building named after Helmsley, earning an average of $1.2 million annually? A cool 14.7%.

And the chart following this shows the income and taxes of the Janitor and the millionaire.  And even though the millionaire pays only 14.7% in taxes, the actual tax dollars paid in income taxes is $159,515.  And how much did that janitor pay?  Just $3,168.  The cheap bastard, the millionaire, paid $156,347 more in income taxes.  That’s 4,935% more than the janitor paid in income taxes.  Yes, 14.7% is a smaller percentage than 25%, but there’s no math in the world that says the janitor paid more in income taxes than the millionaire.

There’s a difference between tax dollars and tax rates.  And tax rates don’t pay the bills.  Tax dollars do.  And the rich pay more of them by far.  Anyway saying otherwise is fostering class warfare for political purposes.  Because if it was about tax dollars to pay for federal spending, $159,515 pays for a lot more spending than $3,168. 

Low- and Middle-Income Families don’t Pay their Fair Share of Taxes

So if the rich aren’t paying their fair share of taxes, who is?  And are there others, too, not paying their fair share?  Of course, that can’t be.  Because only the rich can get away with cheating the…  Hello, what’s this?  Low- and middle-income families aren’t paying any federal income taxes?  Really?  How can that be?  Wasn’t it the rich blankity blanks that were screwing the poor?  Not the other way around (see Nearly half of US households escape fed income tax by Stephen Ohlemacher, Associated Press Writer, posted 4/7/2011 on Yahoo! Finance)?

About 47 percent will pay no federal income taxes at all for 2009. Either their incomes were too low, or they qualified for enough credits, deductions and exemptions to eliminate their liability. That’s according to projections by the Tax Policy Center, a Washington research organization…

In recent years, credits for low- and middle-income families have grown so much that a family of four making as much as $50,000 will owe no federal income tax for 2009, as long as there are two children younger than 17, according to a separate analysis by the consulting firm Deloitte Tax.

Really?  They’ve told us that people flipping burgers for minimum wage were poor, but even people earning $50,000 are poor?  No wonder we have so many people in poverty.

The result is a tax system that exempts almost half the country from paying for programs that benefit everyone, including national defense, public safety, infrastructure and education. It is a system in which the top 10 percent of earners — households making an average of $366,400 in 2006 — paid about 73 percent of the income taxes collected by the federal government.

The bottom 40 percent, on average, make a profit from the federal income tax, meaning they get more money in tax credits than they would otherwise owe in taxes. For those people, the government sends them a payment…

In 2007, about 38 percent of households paid no federal income tax, a figure that jumped to 49 percent in 2008, according to estimates by the Tax Policy Center.

No wonder the Democrats win elections.  You know there are a lot of Democrats in that 49% not paying federal income taxes.  That makes the Democrats a modern day Robin Hood.  Stealing from the rich.  And giving to the low- and middle-income.  And when you’re on the receiving end of this bounty, you’re all for class warfare.  Screw the rich, you’ll shout.  Until, God forbid, you become rich.  Just ask Nicholas CageSinbadWesley Snipes.  Or Willie Nelson.  And anyone who won the lotto.  Or a car.  Who did not realize that their bounty came with a hefty tax obligation (there’s no tax withholding for these people.  They have to write a check for all the taxes they owe).  People are stunned to learn the amount of their money the government wants.  And that isn’t fair.  But before they were rich, that was a different story.  Then nothing was fairer than sticking it to the rich.

The Rich aren’t Rich Enough to Pay all our Taxes

If the poorest half of all Americans aren’t paying any taxes, then who, exactly, is?  I mean, if the rich aren’t paying their fair share and the poor aren’t paying anything, who does that leave (see Where the Tax Money Is posted 4/17/2011 on The Wall Street Journal)?

Consider the Internal Revenue Service’s income tax statistics for 2008, the latest year for which data are available. The top 1% of taxpayers—those with salaries, dividends and capital gains roughly above about $380,000—paid 38% of taxes. But assume that tax policy confiscated all the taxable income of all the “millionaires and billionaires” Mr. Obama singled out. That yields merely about $938 billion, which is sand on the beach amid the $4 trillion White House budget, a $1.65 trillion deficit, and spending at 25% as a share of the economy, a post-World War II record.

That’s funny.  I thought the rich weren’t paying their fair share.  And in 2008 the top 1% paid 38% of all taxes.  I don’t know, but 38% sounds like a lot more than the 0% paid by the poorest 50%.  So the rich are paying a lot.  Can they pay more?  Can they pay all of our taxes?  Well, even if you confiscate all of the top 1%’s income, no.  They can’t.  They simply aren’t rich enough.

Say we take it up to the top 10%, or everyone with income over $114,000, including joint filers. That’s five times Mr. Obama’s 2% promise. The IRS data are broken down at $100,000, yet taxing all income above that level throws up only $3.4 trillion. And remember, the top 10% already pay 69% of all total income taxes, while the top 5% pay more than all of the other 95%.

The richest 10% of all Americans, including everyone making $100,000 or more, won’t do it either.  At least, they can’t fund a $4 trillion budget.  Which means there’s no way no how you can pay for government by taxing the rich.  Even if you tax them at 100%.  You see, these rich simply aren’t rich enough.  You know who is, though?  The middle class.

So who else is there to tax? Well, in 2008, there was about $5.65 trillion in total taxable income from all individual taxpayers, and most of that came from middle income earners. The nearby chart shows the distribution, and the big hump in the center is where Democrats are inevitably headed for the same reason that Willie Sutton robbed banks.

This is politically risky, however, so Mr. Obama’s game has always been to pretend not to increase taxes for middle class voters while looking for sneaky ways to do it…

Keep in mind that the most expensive tax deductions, in terms of lost tax revenue, go mainly to the middle class. These include the deductions for state and local tax payments (especially property taxes), mortgage interest, employer-sponsored health insurance, 401(k) contributions and charitable donations. The irony is that even as Mr. Obama says he merely wants the rich to pay a little bit more, his proposals would make the tax code less progressive than it is today.

The $100-200 thousand earners are the largest group of earners in the country.  They may each make less than each of the top 1%, but their numbers are far greater.  And it adds up.  If you drop that low end to $50 thousand and the total pot of income is close to $3 trillion dollars.  That’s a lot of money to tax.  And a lot of tax deductions to disallow.  That’s the sweet spot.  The $50-200 thousand earners.  They’re just one plump, stuffed, cash piñata.  And oh how they want to whack it open.  But how to do it?  And blame the Republicans?  That is the question that faces them.

Only the Middle Class can Fund a $4 Trillion Budget

And you do this, of course, by lying.  In his speech to offer his ‘budget’ in a response to the Ryan budget, Obama said he would cut the deficit by $4 trillion over the next 12 years.  How?  In part with $2 trillion in spending cuts.  Which aren’t exactly all spending cuts.  They’re actually tax increases.  You see, he sees tax breaks and credits as federal spending.  Because it costs government by not having that money collected as a tax.  So he will cut that ‘spending’.  By eliminating those tax breaks and credits.  Resulting in you paying higher taxes.  And that additional money the government is ‘taking back from you’ will lower the deficit.  Confused?  You should be.  This is about as devious as it gets.

And he also said he would save $1 trillion by not renewing the Bush tax cuts.  So that’s another $1 trillion in new taxes (see Obama’s $2 trillion stealth tax hike by James Pethokoukis posted 4/17/2011 on Reuters).

If you’re keeping score, what Obama is actually proposing is $1 trillion in new taxes on wealthier Americans (and small businesses) and $1 trillion in higher tax revenues by reducing tax breaks and subsidies for a total of $2 trillion in new taxes over 12 years. That means total debt reduction, not counting interest, would be $4 trillion, 50 percent of which would come from higher taxes. The econ team at Goldman Sachs ran a similar analysis and found that 56 percent of Obama savings over ten years could come from higher tax revenue.

So that’s $2 trillion in new taxes.  And where do you think that will come from?  Not the 1%, that’s for sure.  If you took all of their money it would only get you half way there.  To raise that kind of money, you have to go to the sweet spot.  The middle class.  Including those making far less than $200,000.  You have to tax everyone making $50,000 or more.  And take away their tax breaks and credits.  Where it will really hurt.  And be political suicide.  So why promise to do just that?  Simple.  He’s not. 

The Obama plan is a non-plan.  It’s just a political tool for the 2012 election.  To show that it is the Republicans that want to cut Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.  Not him.  He’ll say he fought like a dog to save these entitlements.  Because he cares for you.  Unlike those nasty mean Republicans.  And entitlement spending will continue to grow unchecked.  Making it that much harder to save these programs down the road.  But this is what politicians do.  Kick the can down the road.  For someone else to worry about.  For by that time, many of the Democrats will be dead.  And won’t care anymore.

It’s not the Taxes, Stupid.  It’s the Spending.

There’s a difference between tax rates and tax dollars.  And it’s the tax dollars that are important, not the tax rates.  The rich may have a lower effective tax rate but they pay an awful lot in tax dollars.  And as tax dollars go, they’re paying more than anyone else.  Far more than half of all Americans.  Who pay $0.00 in federal income taxes.  If anyone is screwing anyone, it’s the lower 50% screwing the top 10%.  And the top 10% probably wouldn’t mind so much if we weren’t constantly demonizing them despite their generosity.

When you can’t pay for your spending by taxing everyone making $100,000 or more at 100%, you’re spending too much.  This is a spending problem pure and simple.  It’s not that the rich aren’t paying their fair share in taxes.  They are.  And then some.  It’s that government is just trying to buy too many votes.  If there is any greed here it is in Washington.  Their spending is out of control.  Even Standard & Poor’s Ratings Service thinks so.  They just lowered our rating from “stable” to “negative” because of the “ballooning deficit.”   Because our out of control spending threatens our future ability to service our debt.

But the Democrats have other pressing concerns on their minds.  Like winning elections.  And you win elections by spending.  Not living within your means.  And if they play it just right, the day of reckoning will come conveniently in the future.  When they’re dead.  Problem solved.  For them, at least.  Their children and grand children?  Guess they just don’t care about them.

www.PITHOCRATES.com

Share

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,