The US and UK following Keynesian Policies and Suffering Jobless Recoveries

Posted by PITHOCRATES - April 28th, 2012

Week in Review

The US is not the only country suffering through a ‘jobless’ recovery.  Which is just another way of saying continued recession.  Or double-dip recession.  The UK is having the same problems we’re having.  And using inept government policies to try and fix them.  Just like in the US (see A recession made in Downing Street – but not caused by cuts by ALLISTER HEATH posted 4/26/2012 on City A.M.).

The first problem has been the composition of the austerity package. Much of the tightening has been via tax hikes rather than spending cuts – capital gains, national insurance, stamp duty, value added tax, and now pasties and the rest. That was the wrong choice: lower taxes are good for growth, higher taxes are bad. The trick is to deliver austerity by cutting spending, not by hiking taxes.

The next issue is that the government’s supply-side agenda has failed miserably. By now, developers should have been set free to build new airports and even cities; the labour market should have been liberalised; job-reducing red tape eliminated; the top rate of tax abolished; mad EU rules abolished, and so on and so forth. Britain needed a revolution; it was granted a few over-hyped reforms…

…excessive inflation has slashed real incomes and real wealth; this, rather than cuts, is what has depressed spending the most…

Last but not least, banking rules. It was right to ensure banks held more capital and that credit became priced rationally – but the reforms have spiralled out of control…

What is most depressing is that the double-dip (if that is indeed what it is) will wrongly discredit austerity, even though the state remains incredibly profligate…

President Obama has broken deficit and debt records.  While he chastises the Right for irresponsibly spending beyond their means.  Demanding that they raise taxes to pay for this irresponsible spending.  That somehow higher taxes will fix all of America’s ills.  Or, at the least, address the social injustice of prosperity.  And happiness.

Both the UK and the US are steadfastly following the failed policies of John Maynard Keynes.  Demand-side Keynesian economics.  Tax and spend.  Because they’ve ‘worked so well’ in the past.  Of course they haven’t.  They never have.  And they never will.  What works are supply-side economics.  Those policies embraced by Margaret Thatcher.  And Ronald Reagan.  Who enjoyed real economic recoveries.  The kind that created jobs.

Politics never change.  Politicians dumb down public education so the people never learn the lessons of history.  That all of their policies are tried and failed.  So they make the same arguments every election cycle.  And the young believe in the goodness of these policies.  The fairness of these policies.  Never knowing the lives they have destroyed through the years.  Which is why politicians work so hard to get the youth vote.  Before they learn the truth.  And become conservative.

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Burning Down the American Economy to Rebuild it in a Silly Green Utopia

Posted by PITHOCRATES - September 16th, 2011

Increasing Spending that Balloons the Deficit is not Irresponsible but Cutting Taxes Is

Math is a relative thing.  In the Democrat world (see Boehner Says No Again by Patricia Murphy posted 9/15/2011 on The Daily Beast).

“Tax increases I think are off the table and I don’t think they are a viable option for the joint committee,” Boehner said. “It’s a very simple equation. Tax increases destroy jobs…”

Michigan Sen. Carl Levin, a high-profile Democratic proponent of tax reform, added on the Senate floor, “Real deficit reduction means revenues plus spending cuts. Those resisting additional revenues need to do the math.”

Funny.  These are the same people who passed Obamacare into law.  If you remember, that vote was along party lines.  The Democrats gave us Obamacare.  Not the Republicans.

The Republicans voted ‘no’.  Because they did the math on Obamacare.  The Democrats voted ‘yes’.  Because they said [deleted expletive] the math.

You see, increasing spending that balloons the deficit is not irresponsible.  But cutting taxes is.  Because they say we must consider the deficit first before even entertaining the thought of cutting taxes.  But when it comes to more spending these same people say [deleted expletive] the deficit.  A deficit I might add the Democrats took to record highs.  With their spending.  Such as the $800 billion stimulus plan.  Which the Democrats wrote.

Obama’s Leadership and Deft Economic Skills ended the Bush Recession with Investments like Solyndra

So how did all that stimulus spending work out?  Did it pull us out of recession?  Did it fix the economy?  By one measure, it may have.  But that same measure is foretelling a double-dip recession (see Up means down posted 9/17/2011 on The Economist).

The Economist’s informal R-word index tracks the number of newspaper articles that use the word “recession” in a quarter. The index has the advantage of being timely: data for the articles are available immediately, whereas first estimates of GDP are typically released four weeks after the end of the quarter. If not foolproof, it boasts a decent record: previous incarnations of the index pinpointed the start of American recessions in 1990 and 2007.

The latest iteration counts articles published in the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal. It shows the index declining steadily from a peak in early 2009, with just a brief pause during the summer of 2010. September, however, has brought a change in the weather. Measured at a quarterly rate, the index has visibly turned up since the start of this month. The chances that a slowdown will become a recession still hang in the balance. But the hacks are getting anxious.

And you know what this means?  The president can’t blame this recession on George W. Bush.  Because they celebrated their Recovery Summer back in 2010.  That’s right, the Bush recession ended in 2010.  Thanks to Obama‘s leadership and deft economic skills.  Like investing a half billion dollars in the now bankrupt Solyndra.  If there’s a double-dip recession it can mean only one thing.  The second dip is the Obama recession.  Because it happened after he cured the economy of the Bush recession.

Government subsidizes Solar Panels because America can’t build them Competitively

Apparently, Solyndra wasn’t the only green company the Obama administration backed (see Solyndra Not Sole Firm to Hit Rock Bottom Despite Stimulus Funding posted 9/15/2011 on FOXNEWS).

At least four other companies have received stimulus funding only to later file for bankruptcy, and two of those were working on alternative energy.

Evergreen Solar Inc., indirectly received $5.3 million through a state grant to open a $450 million facility in 2007 that employed roughly 800 people. The company, once a rock star in the solar industry, filed for bankruptcy protection last month, saying it couldn’t compete with Chinese rivals without reorganizing. The company intends to focus on building up its manufacturing facility in China.

…In June 2009, SpectraWatt received a $500,000 grant from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory as part of the stimulus package. SpectraWatt was one of 13 companies to receive the money to help develop ways to improve solar cells without changing current manufacturing processes.

The company filed for bankruptcy last month, saying it could not compete with its Chinese competitors, which receive “considerable government and financial support…”

Another winner of stimulus who ultimately lost is Mountain Plaza Inc. Despite declaring bankruptcy in 2003, the company received $424,000 from the Tennessee Department of Transportation as part of a grant aimed at installing “truck stop electrification” systems that allow idling truckers to plug-in during extended stops and turn off their exhaust-belching, environment polluting diesel engines.

Mountain Plaza had filed for bankruptcy protection again in June 2010. TDOT, which received a $2 million stimulus grant from the Environmental Protection Agency for the project, said it didn’t learn about the bankruptcy until October, but it is closely monitoring the project.

Elsewhere, Olsen’s Crop Service and Olsen’s Mills Acquisition Co. also failed despite Olsen’s Mills receiving $10 million to increase employment, add equipment and machinery, refinance existing debts and work capital for operations and acquire land. The payout — part of a $64 million package to nine rural businesses in Wisconsin for economic development loan assistance — was delivered in January 2010, after Olsen’s Mills filed for bankruptcy protection for defaulting on a $60 million bank loan.

Detecting a common theme?  America can’t build solar panels competitively.  These companies cannot exist without huge government subsidies.  As it is in China.  Even with their dirt-cheap labor.

“Winning will require substantial investments. Last year, for example, the China Development Bank offered more than $30 billion in financing to Chinese solar manufacturers, about 20 times more than U.S.-backed loans to solar manufacturers,” Poneman wrote.

So why are we even trying?

This is the industry of the future?  More like the white elephant of today.  If it can’t compete in the market place without massive government subsidies then there is no market for it.  It’s just chasing dreams of a silly green utopia.

It may be the industry of the future.  But it’s the far distant future.  And best left for future generations.  When there are no cheaper and more reliable alternatives available to make electricity.  After we’ve “taken all the coal from the ground.”

Our Government: Implementing Policies that will do They don’t Know What and Hoping for the Best

Instead of trying to invent a new future we should focus on what works today.  Before the economy is completely destroyed by this incessant government meddling (see Home Depot’s Bernie Marcus Calls Dodd-Frank Regulations The “Bonnie & Clyde Bill” by Greg Hengler  posted 9/15/2011 on Townhall).

The Dodd-Frank Act goes on for 2,319 pages. Like Nancy Pelosi’s “pass it to find out what’s in the O’care Bill” statement, Senator Dodd said, “No one will know until this is actually in place how it works. But we believe we’ve done something that has been needed for a long time. It took a crisis to bring us to the point where we could actually get this job done.”

Perhaps this is why their economic policies fail.  Because they haven’t a clue about what they’re doing.  Implementing policies that will do they don’t know what.  And hoping for the best.  But the sad thing is this.  The Dodd-Frank Act is the simple one.  The complicated act is Obamacare.  So you know we’ll all be in for a load of surprises when they indoctrinate us into that government run program.  I don’t know why, but for some reason I think about this classic commercial when I think of that future world of Obamacare.

In this metaphor, the dull grey submissive world is the world of Obamacare.  The screen they’re watching that is brainwashing them to like their miserable existence is the Obama administration.  The free and heroic figure is the conservative Republican candidate for president.   And the hammer is the first act of the new conservative Republican president repealing Obamacare.

Donate $5 and you just might win the Grand Prize of Dinner with the President

But Obama is working feverishly on what’s most important.  Using the power of his office to maximum effect (see Obama Campaign: That Creepy Email From Us Wasn’t A Trick by Zeke Miller posted 9/16/2011 on Business Insider).

Donate $5 today and you’ll be automatically entered for the chance to have dinner with the President and three other supporters.

That’s right.  He’s running a lottery where the grand prize is a dinner with him.  To raise money for his reelection campaign.  So he can continue to work magic with the American economy in a second term.  God help us.

And while the American Economy burns Nero Fiddles

Is it any wonder why we’re in the mess we’re in?  Democrats spend to record deficits.  And then they lecture Republicans about the irresponsibility of tax cuts.  If that ain’t the pot calling the kettle black.  And then the Democrats pour money into an industry that the Chinese are pouring even more money into.  On top of China’s dirt-cheap labor.  I mean who looks at this and thinks this is the one?  This is where we beat the Chinese?  The same people who are giving us Obamacare.  That’s who.  Scary, isn’t it?  And these are the geniuses writing our future.

In the mean time we’re beating up coal.  And every other industry where America stood strong.  With job-killing legislation that even the legislators don’t understand.  If the damage wasn’t so bad it would be comical.

And while the American economy burns Nero fiddles.  And raffles himself off for dinner.  Because in these trying times one has to prioritize.  And nothing is more important to this president than his reelection.  Once he takes care of that then he can focus his attention on the secondary things.  Like governing.

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No Deficit Reduction and the Credit Rating Agencies don’t Care

Posted by PITHOCRATES - August 3rd, 2011

The Credit Rating Agencies wanted Serious Spending Cuts and our Glorious Government Delivered 

It was scary.  We stared into the abyss.  We stood at the edge of the world as we knew it.  With one foot held up midstride, dangling precariously over the void.  Ready to tumble forward into the chasm of fiscal demise.  And then something happened.  Congress compromised.  There would be more debt.  There would be more spending.  And they restored our financial house to order.  We could put that foot down on terra firma.  Everything was going to be all right.  Like it was before.  Hallelujah (see U.S. Debt Rating: Economists Wait to Hear From S&P by Susanna Kim posted 8/3/2011 on ABC News).

Now that President Obama has signed the debt ceiling deal and averted a default, economists are waiting to see if ratings agency Standard and Poor’s will downgrade the nation’s credit rating…

At stake in all this is not only interest rates the US must pay on its $14.4 trillion debt, but a host of rates for consumers, from mortgages to car loans to credit cards. A downgrade of US debt would cause interest rates of all kinds to edge up and that would cost the US and consumers billions of dollars. The stock market plunged yesterday partly on worries about this possibility.

What a horrible fate this would have been.  God bless Barak Obama, Harry Reid, John Boehner and everyone else that did such an extraordinary job of saving us from this fate.  The credit rating agencies wanted to see some serious spending cuts.  And by God if that isn’t what our glorious government gave them.  Moody’s and Fitch have already given us the good news.  We’re still AAA with them.  Just waiting on Standard and Poor’s.  If they still like us we’re golden.

No spending cuts, no Deficit Reduction and no Credit Downgrade, were they Lying?

The only problem with this is that it is all bull [deleted expletive] (see Spending Cuts Seen as Step, Not as Cure by Binyamin Appelbaum posted 8/2/2011 on The New York Times).

There is something you should know about the deal to cut federal spending that President Obama signed into law on Tuesday: It does not actually reduce federal spending.

By the end of the 10-year deal, the federal debt would be much larger than it is today.

Indeed, both the government and its debts will continue to grow faster than the American economy, primarily because the new law does not address federal spending on health care.

Well how can this be?  More spending?!?  And not just a little but a lot.  So much that it will grow faster than the economy.  But they told us they made real spending cuts.  That they made some real deficit reduction.  Are you telling me that our government lied to us?

Stabilizing that [debt] ratio would require about $4 trillion in cuts over the next decade, according to a number of independent analysts. That is also the target that S.&P. declared the nation must meet, and it was the goal of the “grand bargain” that Mr. Obama tried to reach last month with Speaker John A. Boehner.

The deal they reached instead contains cuts of at least $2.1 trillion over the next 10 years. By the end of that period, the federal debt could equal as much as 80 percent of economic activity, and rising.

Guess so.  We barely made half of the recommended cuts and two of the agencies already gave us their blessings.  Which begs the question was all that fear mongering of the debt downgrade just bull you-know-what?  Just a trick to raise the debt ceiling?  I mean, this deal should have triggered the credit downgrade.  It doesn’t cut spending or reduce the deficit.  So how can it be the end of the world as we know it one minute and then credit rating bliss the next?  Because nothing changed.  Something fishy here.

With the Spending Crisis over, now comes More Spending

All right, so the spending cuts were only phantom spending cuts.  Just designed to fool the American people so the government can do what they do best.  What they always planned to do.  Even though the credit rating agencies said we can’t keep doing it.  Spend with reckless abandon (see Compromise achieved, reform’s the next chapter by Timothy Geithner posted 8/2/2011 on The Washington Post).

The agreement creates room for the private sector to continue to grow, without the threat of default and the burden of higher interest rates…

And by locking in long-term savings, Congress will have more room in the fall to pass additional short-term measures to strengthen the economy — such as extending the payroll tax cut, which provides an average of a thousand dollars to the after-tax incomes of working Americans; extending unemployment benefits; and financing infrastructure investments. After all, strengthening growth and putting more Americans back to work are among the most important things we can do to improve our fiscal situation today and over the long term.

This is like a chain smoker who just got the scare of his life.  A bad lung X-ray that could be cancer.  Only to find out later that it wasn’t cancer.  He feels so good that he lights up to celebrate his good health.

The government has already tried every Keynesian stimulus in the book.  A trillion dollar stimulus bill.  Subsidies for green energy (the economy of the future).  Tax credits.  Shovel ready jobs.  None of this helped the economy.  It just gave us a spending crisis that added so much debt that the credit agencies are threatening to downgrade the U.S. bond rating.  Additional spending is not going to improve our credit worthiness.  In fact, it will do that other thing.  The opposite thing.  It will make it much, much worse.  How can they not see this?  Was I the only one paying attention these past weeks?

When the Market Corrects things get Better; when the Government Corrects you get Double-Dip Recession

So it’s been all smoke and mirrors.  So what?  So they like to spend.  But their spending stimulates, does it not?  They’re investing in the future.  To win the future.  Like green energy.  The economy of the future.  They’re pouring money into this to create jobs and stimulate the economy.  And imagine how bad things would be if they didn’t do this.  Instead of a double-dip recession we may be in a triple-dip recession.  The recession could be one dip worse, then, couldn’t it?

Yeah, that’s a joke.  The economy is horrible despite everything they’ve tried.  Or perhaps it’s horrible because of everything they’ve tried.  Spending for the sake of spending hasn’t produced any results yet.  Just take a look at the Chevy Volt.  The car that was to lead GM back from the abyss.  And change the American automobile industry.  The Obama administration was going all in on this car.  Even ponying up $7,500 in tax credits per car just to make people buy these things.  But apparently the people don’t like the Chevy Volt.  Because they’re not buying them.  Even with a federal gift of $7,500 to sweeten the deal (see Chevy Volt: Still Not Selling by Jonathan V. Last posted 8/3/2011 on the weekly Standard).

The July sales numbers are out and the Chevy Volt continues to electrify (get it?) the country. GM sold … 125 Volts last month!

Way back in March I made fun of the Volt for selling 281 units in February. Turns out, February was a good month. But wait, there’s more! GM says they’re going to increase production to 5,000 Volts per month in order to keep up with demand. You see, they claim that the reason the Volt isn’t selling is that they can’t keep enough cars on the lot. A GM spokeswoman recently claimed that they are “virtually sold out.” Which is virtually true. Mark Modica called around his local Chevy dealers and found plenty of Volts waiting for an environmentally conscious driver to bring them home.

These numbers are so bad they’re embarrassing.  And building 5,000 units to meet a 125 unit demand?  You can tell the government is calling the shots at GM.

This is what happens when government starts running automobile companies.  They destroy automobile companies.  And wastes tax money.  They’ll keep raising taxes (and borrowing money) so they can ‘invest’ in jobs.  Creating jobs where people build things that nobody buys.  This is how the best and brightest tweak the economy.  Use Keynesian stimulus to correct for ‘market inefficiencies’.  Which in Washington is when people don’t spend their money ‘correctly’.

Of course, when the market corrects things get better.  When the government corrects you get a double-dip recession.

The Obama Administration did some serious Fear Peddling to get the Debt Ceiling Raised

The Obama administration did some serious fear peddling to get the debt ceiling raised.  First they tried to scare everyone that the government would default on their debt obligations.  When it was pointed out that there was some $200 billion of tax revenue coming in monthly they changed their story. 

Then they tried to scare old people by saying they couldn’t send out Social Security checks.  When it was pointed out that Social Security Trust Fund was full of treasury securities (i.e., IOUs) that could be converted into cash without any impact on the debt ceiling they changed their story. 

Then they tried to scare everyone that if they didn’t reduce the deficit with a balanced approach (new taxes and spending cuts, but mostly new taxes) the credit rating agencies would downgrade the U.S. AAA debt rating.  So far that hasn’t happened.  Despite there being no deficit reduction.

Well, they got their debt increase.  They may have been less than honest but they got it.  And what are they going to do with that additional $2.4 trillion?  Why, build more Chevy Volts, I guess.  And other winning-the-future job-creating Keynesian stimulus spending.  Because it’s worked so well these past few years.

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No FDR Economic Recovery for Obama, Just Continued Recession

Posted by PITHOCRATES - June 3rd, 2011

Double-Dip Recession or just one Long Recession?

The Great Recession ended in July of 2009.  According to the economists.  And the Obama administration.  The U.S. unemployment rate at that time was 9.4%.  After the recession ended, the unemployment rate peaked at 10.1%.  And stayed at about 10% for the rest of the year.  A year later, it tumbled all the way down to 9.4%.  And kept falling.  All the way down to 9%.  Until last month (see U.S. unemployment rate up in May by CBC News posted 6/3/2011 on CBC News).

Employment rose by only 54,000 jobs in May, raising the unemployment rate to 9.1 per cent, the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics reported Friday.

The April rate was nine per cent.

The May report said 13.9 million Americans are officially unemployed, and another 8.5 million (sometimes called involuntary part-time workers) are working fewer hours than they want. Those people are working part-time because their hours had been cut back or because they couldn’t find a full-time job.

That’s right, it went back up.  There’s talk about a double-dip recession.  But with these unemployment rates holding so high for so many years?  From before the recession ended, to when the recession ended and to almost 2 years after it ended, I got to tell you.  I don’t think it ever ended.  These are record unemployment rates.  The kind of rates that typically only happen during the worst of recessions.

But it’s worse than this number shows.  There are another 8.5 million underemployed because they can’t find a full time job.  Add them in and the rate jumps to 15.8%.  This is a more accurate number.  It tells us the percentage of people who can’t find a full time job.  It’s bad out there.  Real bad. 

Small Business not Hiring but Cutting Workers

And it gets worse.  The job engine of America, small business, isn’t hiring either.  Worse, they’re planning to let people go (see NFIB: Small Business Hiring Stalls in May by Reuters posted 6/3/2011 on FOX Small Business).

Hiring by small businesses stalled in May and there was a small increase in the number of employers planning to cut their workforces, a survey showed in Thursday, another signal the labor market has lost steam.

The National Federation of Independent Business said its survey of 733 small businesses found that the average number of net new jobs slipped to 0.01 per firm from 0.04 in April…

“There were fewer increases and more reports of shrinkage in workforces, with 10% increasing employment an average of 3.2 employees per firm and 13% reducing employment an average of 3.1 employees, seasonally adjusted,” the NFIB said.

Of course small business isn’t hiring because they’re small business.  With small budgets.  And small margins.  Inflation hits them hard.  As well as their customers.  Prices go up everywhere.  Customers buy less.  And businesses pay more in costs.  Putting incredible pressures on their margins.  And those lucky enough to have business don’t dare hire anyone.  Because they have no idea what new law or regulation will come out of Washington next. 

The Obamacare legislation is about a thousand pages long.  And confusing as hell.  Business owners do know that it will be costly (evidenced by the request for waivers).  And that’s only for what they already know is in it.  They’re terrified for what they don’t know is in it.  Or what other surprises Washington will drop on them next.  This is not a good time for anyone operating under small margins.  Or a good time to hire people.

Stocks Tumble, Investors Retreat to Bond Market despite Fears about Technical Default

The numbers are so bad that investors are running from the stock market back into the safe haven of bonds (see Stocks fall after weak jobs report by Daniel Wagner, Associated Press, posted 6/3/2011 on USA Today).

Stocks around the globe dropped Friday after a weak report on U.S. employment worsened concerns that the economic recovery is losing steam…

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 3.00% from 3.03% late Thursday as investors rushed into the safety of government bonds. Yields fall as bond prices rise…

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, a benchmark for many kinds of business and consumer borrowing, dipped below the psychologically important level of 3% during Wednesday’s broad stock sell-off.

It would appear these investors aren’t all that worried about a technical default if Congress doesn’t raise the debt ceiling.  They have more pressing concerns on their mind.  Such as the horrible unemployment numbers.  And an economy in recession.  For all the doom and gloom about what will happen in a technical default pales next to what is happening in the economy. 

With no Adolf Hitler there will be no FDR Economic Recovery

For those of you too young to know what it was like during the Great Depression, and I’m guessing that’s all of you, here’s your chance to relive some history.  Now, contrary to popular belief, FDR did not end the Great Depression.  All that Keynesian spending did nothing.  All those government make-work New Deal programs did nothing.  No.  One man ended the Great Depression.  And it wasn’t FDR.  It was Adolf Hitler.

Hitler plunged the world into war.  Caught most people with their pants down.  While he built a modern war machine few other nations did.  Other than the Japanese.  So the world had to play catch up.  Build ships, planes, rifles, artillery, ammunition, trucks, jeeps, etc.  And the nations that really needed these things were under attack.  Which left only one economy that was untouched by war.  Which also happened to be the world’s largest economy.  The United States.

The FDR administration told American industry they could do what they do best.  And they would get out of the way.  They let them make a profit.  Whatever they wanted.  As long as they delivered the impossible.  Which they did.  We called it the Arsenal of Democracy.  The war production was incredible.  Factories worked around the clock.  And built so much war material that the Nazis and Japanese didn’t have a chance.  The Allies could easily replace their material losses.  They couldn’t.  And the factories kept humming after the war.  For another decade or so.  Until the war-devastated economies rebuilt themselves.

So Obama and FDR have a lot in common.  Failed economic policies.  And ongoing war.  The only difference is that today’s war is unconventional.  There isn’t an enemy out there with a massive army conquering our friends and allies.  It’s more guerilla war.  Hit and run.  And terrorist attacks.  Which the U.S. is leading the fight against.  And the funding for.  So Obama can’t enjoy an FDR recovery.  Our friends and allies aren’t picking up this war tab.  Which means the economy will continue to limp along.  As it has been.  Since 2008.   A lot like FDR’s Great Depression.  Only without the economic recovery.  Which Hitler gifted FDR.  By giving us World War II.

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