China has no Pension or Health Care Benefits for their Rapidly Aging Population unlike in the West

Posted by PITHOCRATES - September 22nd, 2012

Week in Review

The Chinese economy is cooling off.  Worse, they have some even more bad news in their future (see Ageing China: Changes and challenges by Damian Grammaticas posted 9/20/2012 on BBC News China).

Life expectancy in China today rivals that in the West – it is one of this country’s impressive advances. Except China has not yet built a social safety net to provide pensions, affordable healthcare or homes for all its elderly.

Yet another reason why the Chinese economy is outpacing those in the West.  While Europe and the United States have suffered from the effects of an aging population China hasn’t.  At least, not yet.  While those in the West keep raising taxes and selling sovereign debt to pay for pensions and health care for the elderly and retired China has been growing their economy and using its proceeds to buy the sovereign debt of those Western nations.

So what is it like living in a nation without a social safety net?

“We don’t get a government pension because I never paid taxes. We don’t have any savings,” he says.

Because he has children and a wife, he does not qualify for a place in a care home – only those without relatives are eligible.

Of Henan’s 8.5 million elderly, just 2% are cared for in nursing homes. So Niu Yubiao and his wife fend for themselves.

The couple have seven grown-up children. But like other young people in the area, they have left home to look for work. Niu Yubiao has no idea where they are.

The reason why they don’t have any savings is not because they are greedy and materialistic.  It’s because they live in abject poverty.  And barely earn enough to survive.  This is what it’s like in China once you leave the modern cities on the coast.  The economic miracle of China has not reached the impoverished masses in their interior.

Today, there are 180 million Chinese aged over 60, just over 13% of the population. That will double to 360 million in fewer than 20 years, when China will have more retirees than the entire population of the US.

By the middle of the century, their ranks will soar again to 480 million.

China is ageing so fast that a process that took up to a century in the West will happen in the coming 30 years here. And as the ranks of the elderly swells, the working-age population is starting to shrink…

China’s incredible economic growth has been built on its vast, cheap labour supply. But the numbers entering the workforce have started falling. China’s birthrate has collapsed – at its peak in the mid-1980s 25 million babies were born every year. Now there are about 15 million births a year. The dramatic drop is the result of a richer, developing society and of the one-child policy…

Currently, China funds only meagre pensions, and there are six workers paying taxes for each retiree – in 20 years’ time, there will be just two workers for every pensioner.

This is the current problem in the advanced economies in the West.  A declining population growth rate following the post-World War II baby boom is bankrupting their nations.  For those social safety net programs the Chinese don’t have were implemented in these Western countries before the baby boom turned into a baby bust.  Now the elderly generations in these nations grow faster than the younger generations.  More seniors are retiring and consuming government-provided pensions and health care while fewer are entering the workforce to replace them and pay the taxes to fund these programs.  So they have increasing government expenditures at a time of declining government revenue.  Thanks to a lower population growth rate.  Which has overwhelmed governments.  Causing greater budget deficits and soaring levels of debt.

As bad as things are in the Western countries what’s waiting for China is of such a massive scale that one shudders to think what will happen.  For even if China continues to enjoy high economic growth their aging population will bankrupt them.  Either by caring for the elderly.  Or by driving up labor costs and/or labor unrest as their baby bust fails to replace those leaving the workforce.  Bringing that economic juggernaut to a crashing halt.

But the scenario is even bleaker.   For they have driven much of their economy with artificial economic growth.  Fueled by Keynesian policies.  Artificially low interest rates.  And government interference into the private sector.  Much like what gave the U.S. the subprime mortgage crisis and the Great Recession.  And much like what gave the Japanese their asset bubble and their Lost Decade.  For all demand-side stimulative growth (i.e., Keynesian growth) ends in Great Recessions or Lost Decades.  Because this kind of growth is inflationary.  And when you inflate asset values you make asset bubbles.  Which ultimately burst.  And when they do they bring down those inflated values to market prices.  The longer those inflationary policies were in place the higher those asset values soared and the more painful the deflationary fall.  Just ask anyone in Japan.  Or in the U.S. with an underwater mortgage.

So China has some unpleasantness in their future.  Perhaps a deflationary spiral.  Along with an accelerated aging population.  Either one by itself is bad.  But together it could be more than the Chinese economy can handle.  And the fallout of any Chinese crash will ripple through every other nation’s economy.  Where we all will feel it.  And suffer the consequences.  Because we are all Keynesians, too.  At least, the economic policies of our governments are.  And when China can no longer buy U.S. sovereign debt there will be no more deficit spending.  Just massive spending cuts.  Or, if they choose to simply print money, massive post World War I Germany inflation.  Where it will take a wheelbarrow full of money to buy a loaf of bread.  Like in post World War I Germany.

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Birth Control and Abortion have reduced Tax Revenue and House Values for Seniors

Posted by PITHOCRATES - August 26th, 2012

Week in Review

Birth control and abortion will bankrupt Social Security and Medicare.  And they will bring down Obamacare, too.  When Social Security became law we had a growing birth rate.  More people were being born each year.  So the population was expanding.  And the Roosevelt administration thought it would keep expanding.  So they created a Ponzi scheme.  Social Security.  Where more young people (i.e., taxpayers) pay into the system than retirees (i.e., tax consumers) collect from the system.  A foolproof system.  As long as the population continues to expand.  Keeping the base of the pyramid growing larger than the top of the pyramid.

Well their assumptions didn’t hold.  Women stopped having babies beginning in the Sixties.  Just as the Johnson administration gave us the Great Society and Medicare.  Based on the previous assumption that women would keep having babies.  So the funding mechanism was a flawed as it was for Social Security.  And now Obamacare is going to expand the Medicare model.  In the face of what is now a declining population growth rate.  Meaning the number of taxpayers will dwindle as the number of tax consumers retiring will explode.  Causing the aforementioned bankruptcies.  And that declining birth rate is causing even more financial damage (see Is Our Aging Population Partly to Blame for the Slow Recovery? by Philip Moeller posted 8/21/2012 on U.S. News & World Report).

As the unusually weak economic recovery continues, you’ve at least got to wonder if future studies of what ails us will include our aging population as a material cause. Simply stated, older people tend to liquidate assets to fund their retirements. Younger people tend to acquire financial assets as their personal wealth rises and they build their own nest eggs.

The United States has enjoyed nearly 40 years where the number of people acquiring assets was greater than the number of people disposing of them. This condition is being turned on its head. We now face roughly 40 years where there will be more people in this country wanting to sell financial assets than buy them. This supply-demand shift could put a lid on asset values and depress overall economic growth.

So on top of the government failing us in our retirement even our own retirement savings are going to fail us.  It will be like being on the far side of a housing bubble after the bust.  Where seniors want to sell their houses to finance their retirement.  Only to get tens of thousands of dollars less than they had planned.  For just as there are fewer taxpayers to pay the taxes to support an aging population there are fewer homebuyers (as well as other asset buyers) to buy the houses of an aging population.  Lower demand means lower selling price.  And a less comfortable retirement.  All because of that generation of greed and selfishness.  The baby boomers.  Who were all about sex, drugs, rock & roll, birth control and abortion.  And not so much about raising children.  Of course they, too, will suffer the effects of their selfish ways.  As there will be fewer taxpayers to support them in their retirement.  Or to buy their houses.

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FT100: “Benefit recipients agree that responsible governing should start AFTER they get theirs.” -Old Pithy

Posted by PITHOCRATES - January 13th, 2012

Fundamental Truth

Legacy Health Care (and Pension) Costs Bankrupted GM

Franklin Delano Roosevelt ruined General Motors (GM).  And created the health care crisis.  How?  With price controls.  By interfering with market pricing mechanisms.  In a misguided effort to fix the economy he instituted a maximum wage.  Meaning companies couldn’t compete for good workers by offering them a higher wage.  So to compete for good workers they started us down a path that is destroying our economy.  Instead of higher wages (which were illegal) they offered benefits.  And the United States would never be the same.

Health care.  Before FDR, we paid for our health care.  After FDR, other people paid for our health care.  And we demanded more because we weren’t paying the bill.  It worked well for awhile.  When there was an expanding population.  When there were always more younger workers than older workers.  And retirees.  But the population aged.  Thanks to birth control.  And abortion.  During FDR’s time it was common for a family to raise 10 children.  Now it’s closer to 2 or 3.  Which means a generation or two later there were no longer more younger workers than older workers and retirees.  And what does this mean?  Well, older workers and retirees consume more health care than younger workers.  So the cost of health care soared for business.

This is what bankrupted GM.  These legacy health care (and pension) costs.  Instituted during a time when they were cheap and easy to provide.  But they became unsustainable.  Because of that declining population growth rate.  Union contract after union contract discussed these legacy costs.  But the way the rank and file felt was that it was their turn.  The system may be flawed.  But it worked before them.  So let them have their benefits they say.  And fix the system after they get theirs.

Social Security and Public Sectors have the same Problems GM Had

Social Security has the same problem.  That declining population growth rate is forcing fewer and fewer workers to support a retired worker.  And they’re living a lot longer than FDR’s actuaries ever calculated thanks to better and better health care.  Which just compounds the problem.  Social Security is a pyramid scheme gone bad.  The top is far wider than the base.  There are more benefit recipients than benefit contributors.  And it will follow GM into bankruptcy.  It’s just a matter of time.

There’s been a lot of talk about privatizing Social Security to prevent its collapse.  But it always meets fierce resistance.  Especially from the elderly and retirees.  Who are stuck in the system never having provided for their own retirement because they believed in the Ponzi scheme that is Social Security.  They say the system may be flawed.  But it worked before them.  So let them have their benefits they say.  And fix the system after they get theirs.

If you combine the rising health care costs and the rising pension costs inherent with a declining birth rate we come to the public sector.  Who have always enjoyed far better benefits than those in the private sector.  But that aging population is requiring ever higher taxes to support these most generous benefits.  And the taxpayers simply can’t sustain them any longer.  Those in the public sector know these systems need to be reformed.  But they worked before them.  So let them have their benefits they say.  And reform the system after they get theirs.

This Generation will Always Kick the Can to the Next Generation

That’s the problem with bad public policy.  Everyone can agree that bad policy needs to be reformed.  But what harm could one more generation do?  So kick that can down the road.  We have time.  After all, it took generations to get where we are now.  So another generation won’t ruin the country.  Even though it very well could.  But the important thing for them is that they get their benefits.  And the responsible governing can start after they get theirs.

But that’s the problem.  This generation always wants the following generation to fix things.  They always want to kick that can down the road.  But the problem is that there will always be another generation to kick that can to.  So they always will.  And no one will fix these problems while there’s a chance to fix them.  One generation will just suffer the consequences of all this can kicking.  As will every generation that follows.

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