Capital Markets, IPO, Bubbles and Stock Market Crashes

Posted by PITHOCRATES - April 22nd, 2013

Economics 101

Entrepreneurs turn to Venture Capitalists because they Need a Lot of Money Fast

It takes money to make money.  Anyone who ever started a business knows this only too well.  For starting a money-making business takes money.  A lot of it.  New business owners will use their lifesavings.  Mortgage their home.  Borrow from their parents.  Or if they have a really good business plan and own a house with a lot of equity built up in it they may be able to get a loan from a bank.  Or find a cosigner who is willing to pledge some collateral to secure a loan.

Once the business is up and running they depend on business profits to pay the bills.  And service their debt.  If the business struggles they turn to other sources of financing.  They pay their bills slower.  They use credit cards.  They draw down their line of credit at their bank.  They go back to a parent and borrow more money.  A lot of businesses fail at this point.  But some survive.  And their profits not only pay their bills and service their debt.  But these profits can sustain growth.

This is one path.  Entrepreneurs with a brilliant new invention may need a lot of money fast.  To pay for land, a large building for manufacturing, equipment and tooling, energy, waste disposal, packaging, distribution and sales.  And all the people in production and management.  This is just too much money for someone’s lifesavings or a home mortgage to pay for.  So they turn to venture capital.  Investors who will take a huge risk and pay these costs in return for a share of the profits.  And the huge windfall when taking the company public.  If the company doesn’t fail before going public.

The Common Stockholders take the Biggest Risk of All who Finance a Business

As a company grows they need more financing.  And they turn to the capital markets.  To issue bonds.  A large loan broken up into smaller pieces that many bond purchasers can buy.  Each bond paying a fixed interest rate in return for these buyers (i.e., creditors) taking a risk.  Businesses have to redeem their bonds one day (i.e., repay this loan).  Which they don’t have to do with stocks.  The other way businesses raise money in the capital markets.   When owners take their business public they are selling it to investors.  This initial public offering (IPO) of stock brings in money to the business that they don’t have to pay back.  What they give up for this wealth of funding is some control of their business.  The investors who buy this stock get dividends (similar to interest) and voting rights in exchange for taking this risk.  And the chance to reap huge capital gains.

The common stockholders take the biggest risk in financing a business.  (Preferred stockholders fall between bondholders and common stockholders in terms of risk, get a fixed dividend but no voting rights.)  In exchange for that risk they get voting rights.  They elect the board of directors.  Who hire the company’s officers.  So they have the largest say in how the business does its business.  Because they have the largest stake in the company.  After all, they own it.  Which is why businesses work hard to please their common stockholders.  For if they don’t they can lose their job.

During profitable times the board of directors may vote to increase the dividend on the common stock.  But if the business is not doing well they may vote to reduce the dividend.  Or suspend it entirely.  What will worry stockholders, though, more than a reduced dividend is a falling stock price.  For stockholders make a lot of money by buying and selling their shares of stock.  And if the price of their stock falls while they’re holding it they will not be able to sell it without taking a loss on their investment.  So a reduced dividend may be the least of their worries.  As they are far more concerned about what is causing the value of their stock to fall.

Investors make Money by Buying and Selling Stocks based on this Simple Adage, “Buy Low, Sell High.”

A business only gets money from investors from the IPO.  Once investors buy this stock they can sell it in the secondary market.  This is what drives the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  This buying and selling of stocks between investors on the secondary market.  A business gets no additional funding from these transactions.  But they watch the price of their stock very closely.  For it can affect their ability to get new financing.  Creditors don’t want to take all of the risk.  Neither do investors. They want to see a mix of debt (bonds) and equity (stocks).  And if the stock price falls it will be difficult for them to raise money by issuing more stock.  Forcing them to issue more bonds.  Increasing the risk of the creditors.  Which raises the bond interest rate they must pay to attract creditors.  Which makes it hard for the business to raise money to finance operations when their stock price falls.  Not to mention putting the jobs of executive management at risk.

Why?  Because this is not why venture capitalists risk their money.  It is not why investors buy stock in an IPO.  They take these great risks to make money.  Not to lose money.  And the way they expect to get rich is with a rising stock price.  Business owners and their early financers get a share of the stock at the IPO.  For their risk-taking.  And the higher the stock trades for after the IPO the richer they get.  When the stock price settles down after a meteoric rise following the IPO the entrepreneurs and their venture capitalists can sell their stock at the prevailing market price and become incredibly rich.  Thanks to a huge capital gain in the price of the stock.  At least, that is the plan.

But what causes this huge capital gain?  The expectations of future profitability of the new public company.  It’s not about what it is doing today.  But what investors think they will be doing tomorrow.  If they believe that their new product will be the next thing everyone must have investors will want to own that stock before everyone starts buying those things.  So they can take that meteoric rise along with the stock price.  As this new product produces record profits for this business.  So everyone will bid up the price because the investors must have this stock.  Just as they are sure consumers will feel they must have what this business sells.  When there are a lot of companies competing in the same technology market all of these tech stock prices can rise to great heights.  As everyone is taking a big bet that the company they’re buying into will make that next big thing everyone must have.  Causing these stocks to become overvalued.  As these investors’ enthusiasm gets the better of them.  And when reality sets in it can be devastating.

Investors make money by buying and selling stocks.  The key to making wealth is this simple adage, “Buy low, sell high.”  Which means you don’t want to be holding a stock when its price is falling.  So what is an investor to do?  Sell when it could only be a momentary correction before continuing its meteoric rise?  Missing out on a huge capital gain?  Or hold on to it waiting for it to continue its meteoric rise?  Only to see the bottom fall out causing a great financial loss?  The kind of loss that has made investors jump out of a window?  Tough decision.  With painful consequences if an investor decides wrong.  Sometimes it’s just not one individual investor.  If a group of stocks are overvalued.  If there is a bubble in the stock market.  And it bursts.  Look out.  The losses will be huge as many overvalued stocks come crashing down.  Causing a stock market crash.  A recession.  A Great Recession.  Even a Great Depression.

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Property Rights and Contracts

Posted by PITHOCRATES - March 26th, 2012

Economics 101

We put a lot of Money and Time into Maintaining Property we Own so we can Enjoy it Exclusively

Have you ever bought the Brooklyn Bridge?  I hope not.  For if you have someone probably conned you.  Unless you bought it from the New York City Department of Transportation (DOT).  Because they currently own the Brooklyn Bridge.  And are the only ones who can sell it.  But the last I checked they weren’t selling.  So I doubt they sold it to you.  If you are about to enter into negotiations to buy the Brooklyn Bridge I suggest you do a title search first.  To verify that the seller in fact owns the property.  Has the right to sell the property.  And that the seller is selling the property ‘free and clear’.  To make sure you don’t have to pay any outstanding construction bills for work completed on the bridge that the DOT didn’t pay.  Then and only then should you buy your bridge.  So you can enjoy the pride of bridge ownership.  While charging tolls.  And getting rich.

This illustrates a central point about buying and selling things.  Property rights.  Which lets us buy things.  And sell them.  For to sell something we must first own it.  And to buy something we must know that we can own it.  Because if we’re not sure we can own it we’re not going to exchange our hard-earned money for it.  And once we own something we’re going to use it however we wish to use it.  At least that’s what we expect to do.  If we buy a house with a pool in the yard we’re going to want to use that pool exclusively.  Because we paid for it.  And keep it clean.  By maintaining the pool filters and pumps.  Adding chlorine.  Vacuuming the bottom.  We’re going to put a lot of money and time into maintaining that pool so we can enjoy it.  Our little tropical paradise in our own backyard.  But we’re not going to do all of that if just anyone can walk into our yard and use our pool whenever they damn well please.  For if that were the case we wouldn’t spend the time and money in the first place.  We’d look for a pool we could use for free.  Like everyone else who thought they could walk into our yard and use our pool whenever they damn well please.

Or would we?  Let’s say someone in your neighborhood just moved in.  They put in a nice in-the-ground pool.  Spent a fortune on it.  Kept it pristine.  And used it exclusively.  They were happy.  Until the subprime mortgage crisis hit.  And all of a sudden they owed far more on their mortgage than the house was worth.  So one night they just disappeared.  And let the bank have the house.  Once you notice their house is empty you think about that pool.  And decide what could it hurt if you went over for a swim?  You go there.  Notice they left the pumps and filters on.  And the pool is still pretty clean.  So you enjoy a swim or two.  Others find out.  And go over for a swim.  A lot of them.  The pool is crowded.  And not so clean anymore.  No one is skimming the garbage out of it.  Or maintaining the chlorine level.  Some of the kids are even peeing in the pool instead of getting out of it.  Soon the pool begins to smell bad.  Algae is growing.  The filters plug up.  With the water flow blocked the pumps strain and trip the circuit breaker.  Stopping the pumps.  And the filtering.  The crud they filtered out backs up into the pool.  Soon the water turns a greenish gray.  And looks more like a stagnant pond where dead fish float on the surface than the pristine tropical paradise it once was.

We can trace most Pollution and Environmental Damage back to the Tragedy of the Commons

Economists call this the Tragedy of the Commons.  Which is what happens when we poorly define our property rights.  In our example the pool was clean and enjoyable when someone owned the pool.  When no one owned the pool (after the previous owners abandoned it) the pool became dirty and no longer enjoyable.  Why?  Because when we own something we have an incentive to take care of it.  For our long-term enjoyment.  When no one owns it no one has an incentive to take care of it.  Some may try but others will continue to pollute.  Because they don’t own it.  And have no incentive to spend the time and money to keep it clean.  Especially when others are still polluting.  So no one tries to keep the pool clean.  They’ll enjoy it while they can.  And when the pollution gets so bad they will move on and find something else to enjoy. 

We can trace most pollution and environmental damage back to the Tragedy of the Commons.  If you love the beach so much that you buy a house on it you will keep your beach clean.  You’re not going to litter it with cigarette butts, empty bottles, food wrappers, used condoms, etc.  A public beach, on the other hand, is a different story.  Just as people will take their trash to a public field to dump it.  Because they don’t own that land and have no incentive NOT to pollute it.  And it’s cheaper than taking their trash to the private landfill that charges a fee.  Who helps to keep America beautiful by burying our trash.  And when the landfill is full someone else will buy it and make a beautiful golf course out of it.  Or something else.  As long as someone owns it something nice will happen with that land.  To maintain the value of that land to the landowner.

When you own something it has value to you.  Such as a logging company cutting down trees on land they own.  Because this land has value they will not over-log it.  And when they cut down trees they will plant new seedlings.  So the land continues to have value.  Because they will be able to cut down these seedlings after they grow into trees.  Or the future owner of that land will be able to.  Who will buy that land because it has value.  Whereas there is no incentive for a private logger working on public land NOT to over-log it.  Or to plant seedlings.  Because they don’t own that land.  Anything they don’t cut down some other logging company will.  And without any property rights to that land they won’t plant any seedlings.  Because nothing will prevent anyone else from cutting these down once they grow into trees.

Well Defined Property Rights allow Buyers and Sellers to Enter into Contracts with one Another

To do all of this buying and selling we need well defined property rights.  Clearly spelling out what the seller owns.  And what exactly the buyer is buying.  For example, a logging company buying a tree farm may want to drill an exploratory well to see if there is oil or natural gas under that land.  So he or she will want to make sure that the terms of the sale include all mineral rights.  Paying additional for these rights if necessary.  Or getting the tree farm at a lower price than other comparable tree farms because the seller wants to retain the mineral rights.

Well defined property rights allow buyers and sellers to enter into contracts with one another.  Contracts clearly state the terms of sale and any other special provisions.  Such as the seller retaining his or her right to have his or her pick of one tree anywhere on that land once a year in the month of December.  As long as buyer and seller freely enter into these agreements they expect each other to honor the terms of the contract.  And only when both parties honor the terms of the contract does the ownership of property transfer from one party to another.

Property has value.  Even the Brooklyn Bridge.  And well defined property rights protect that value.  Because the DOT owns that bridge they spend money to maintain that bridge.  A well-maintained bridge provides value for those who want to cross the East River.  Currently the various taxes they pay to the city and state make their way to the DOT.  To pay for that maintenance.  But if the city of New York found itself in serious financial trouble they could sell the Brooklyn Bridge.  To a private person.  Who wants to put up toll booths on the bridge.  The city gets a large sum of money to help with their financial trouble.  And the new private owner gets a revenue stream in the form of tolls.  And the city of New York will, of course, screw those crossing the East River.  Because they’ll now have to pay a toll to cross the Brooklyn Bridge.  But they won’t get any of their taxes back.  Because governments rarely if ever cut their taxes.  The city and the private person do well because they both have well defined property rights.  And a contract.  The people using the bridge don’t.  They had no contract with the city that clearly stated the terms for their use of that bridge.  And will continue to pay the taxes that paid their crossing fees.  As well as the new tolls.  Which is business as usual.  Because government always screws the taxpayers.  Who are always at a disadvantage when it comes to property rights and contracts when dealing with the government.  For government has the power to break contracts and take property.  Unlike private persons entering into contracts.  Who only transfer the ownership of property by mutual consent.

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FUNDAMENTAL TRUTH #41: “The want of unearned money is the root of most evil.” -Old Pithy

Posted by PITHOCRATES - November 24th, 2010

Survival of the Fittest is not a Pleasant Way to Live

Whoever said that ‘money is the root of all evil’ got it wrong.  Money gives us peace.  It gives us safe societies to live in.  It’s money that has civilized us.  Differentiated us from the animals. 

Which kingdom is crueler to live in?  The animal kingdom?  Or the human kingdom?  Most will say the human kingdom.  They will point to the Nazis and World War II.  The death camps.  The horrors of the Eastern Front as the Soviets and the Germans waged perhaps the cruelest war of attrition known to history.  And then say check and mate.  Man is worse than animals when it comes to acts of cruelty.  As World War II so clearly demonstrates.

Well, yes, World War II is probably the greatest tragedy man has ever perpetrated against his fellow man.  But a lot of those who suffered and perished were doing so to end the tyranny of fanatical state socialism (Italy’s Fascists, Germany’s National Socialists and Japan’s militarists).  It was a struggle of good versus evil.  Where the evil were behaving like animals.  Using military power, ideology and cruelty in a pure Darwinian survival of the fittest.

Welcome to the Animal Kingdom where the Lame and Young are Eaten

Yeah, you didn’t see that coming, did you?  Only man sacrifices for the good of others.  Animals don’t do that.  That’s why they have so many babies.  Because animals prey on the most defenseless.  They don’t help them.  Babies are easy food.  So they have a lot of babies because so few make it to adulthood.  Because others eat them. 

When a soldier falls in combat, others will risk their own life to drag him to safety.  So many do this.  And the few we see we recognize for this extraordinary act of bravery that is above and beyond the call of duty.

Our nation recently awarded Staff Sgt. Salvatore Giunta the Medal of Honor.  Our highest decoration.  While serving in Afghanistan.  He is the first living recipient of the Medal of Honor since the Vietnam War.  This is what men do.  Perform selfless acts of bravery to help others.  And people like Staff Sgt. Salvatore Giunta make the world a better place.

You know what a hurt animal is?  Easier food.  While the other animals run away, predators eat the slower and lame.  Another reason why animals have so many babies.  They’re still food as they grow up.  And they never stop being food.  This is the animal kingdom.

We Used our Brains more than our Brawn

Say what you want about the cruelty of man, but we don’t eat our babies.  Or our lame.  Most of us live out of the elements.  Many in a warm and cozy house.  The necessities of life come rather easy for most.  Whereas lots of animals perish from the lack of food and water, in America even the poor are obese.

So how did this happen?  How did life get so easy for man compared to the animals?  Yes, our opposable thumbs helped.  And our big brains.  But even with these we were still hunters and gatherers.  And when you hunt and gather, you need a lot of land to hunt and gather on.  Because food just isn’t that plentiful in convenient small areas.  So they traveled.  And came into contact with other hunter and gatherers.  Who they then fought for the limited food supply to survive.

This all changed when we used our brains more than our brawn.  Instead of gathering food, we farmed.  Instead of hunting, we raised cows, pigs, chickens, etc.  As our food supply became steadier, we could do other things besides tending to our food supply.  We thought.  We innovated.  We improved.  We created.

The Barter System was Good but Inefficient

Of course, we were able to do these other things why?  Because not everyone had to be farmers.  But these people still needed food.  So what did they do to get food?  Steal it at every opportunity like in the animal kingdom? 

No.  In the beginning, they traded for food.  A tool maker traded his tools to a farmer for some of his food.  We call this kind of trading the barter system.  It’s an improvement over stealing what you want but it has its problems.  What if the tool maker only makes one kind of tool?  And the farmer already has three?

This is the big downfall of the barter system.  Searching for someone that has something you want AND wants what you have.  The longer it took to find these people to trade with the more time you spent searching than making something.  These ‘search costs’ became costly and made barter inefficient. 

If only we could find something that would make this trading process more efficient.  Something that would allow me to spend less time searching and more time making things.  Something that could temporarily hold value that I can trade for.  That I then could trade with other people for what I wanted.

Money Made Trade Efficient.  And Allowed us to Live Together in Peace and Harmony

We call that ‘something’ money.  And it has exploded the efficiency of trade.  It made it very easy to buy the things you wanted by using the money you made selling the things you made.  Markets where all this buying and selling took place became cities.  Living standards increased.  We were able to live in peace and harmony with each other like never before.

It is our creativity and the things we make or do that allowed this to happen.  Money just made this ‘human capital’ more efficient.  And the more money we accumulated from our human capital, the better everyone lived.  Because we produced more things that people wanted.

But there are those without this human capital.  The lazy.  The shiftless.  Criminals.  Lawyers.  And politicians.  They don’t create anything.  They just want to profit from the human capital of others.  To steal, if you will.  And it is this want of unearned money that is the root of most evil.

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