Health Care Professionals say School Shootings are Rare therefore we shouldn’t Overreact with Gun Control Legislation

Posted by PITHOCRATES - March 31st, 2013

Week in Review

President Obama is pushing for more gun control legislation.  Before the memories of Newtown fade.  To overreact before the emotions fade.  Even though most legislation proposed thus far would not have changed the outcome at Newtown.  It was a tragedy.  But a rare tragedy.  And trying to take the guns out of the hands of all the future unknown school shooters will probably fail.  For no legislation is perfect.  And no enforcement is perfect.  If there were hundreds or thousands of these shooters it might make a difference.  But trying to find 2 or 3 or 4 shooters across the country will be impossible.  Which is the ultimate reason for the tragedy at Newtown.  It was a statistically rare event.  As a child in school is more likely to die from a lightning strike than from gunfire.

You know what would probably work better?  Arming a few people in that school.  But not telling anyone who they are.  Why would this work?  Because people like Adam Lanza pick defenseless people to hurt.  Because they don’t want anyone hurting them.  That’s why they pick places where people can’t shoot back.  And hopefully where they won’t fight back.  So if it’s public knowledge that there are a few people in that school carrying a gun but a potential shooter doesn’t know who, he is less likely to break into that school out of fear that he may walk into someone with a gun (see Adam Lanza Newtown search warrants released by Jason Sickles and Dylan Stableford posted on Yahoo! News).

Connecticut State Attorney Stephen J. Sedensky III, who’s overseeing the case, said Adam Lanza killed 26 people within five minutes of storming into Sandy Hook Elementary School before turning a gun on himself…

Lanza killed all 26 school victims with a Bushmaster .223-caliber model XM15 rifle for which he had 10 magazines capable of carrying 30 rounds each. Sedensky’s report says officers recovered 154 spent casings and 58 unfired rounds for the assault-style rifle from inside the school.

Lanza was also armed with a Glock 10 mm handgun, a 9 mm Sig Sauer P226 handgun and additional ammunition for both. Inside the car Lanza drove to the school, police found a 12-gauge shotgun and two magazines containing 70 rounds of ammunition. Lanza took his own life with the Glock as police were arriving at the school, the report states.

Lanza had enough guns and ammunition to shoot for more than five minutes.  And he probably could have held the police off for awhile.  But he didn’t.  Once someone aggressive arrived on the scene he quickly took his own life.  For he had no interest trading shots with anyone.  Once again showing why he and others like him choose schools and theaters for their carnage.  For these aren’t tough guys.  There often quiet loners.  Shut off from other human contact.  Who are even afraid of people.  Fantasizing about life in a video game.  Where they find escape from a world where they find no enjoyment.  And they know they aren’t alone.  For they read the papers.  Perhaps getting inspired.  From articles like the one they found in Lanza’s house.

Exhibit #630 – One (1) New York Times article on 02/18/08 of a school shooting at Northern Illinois University.

Finding these people will be all but impossible with background checks.  But if they knew that someone could shoot back at them it may dissuade them.  And it would probably help not to give them so much press.  For a news story could be the thing that pushes one of these people over the edge.  It may normalize such an atrocity in the mind of someone disturbed.  Making the shooter move from fantasy to reality.  With nothing to stop them.  Except, perhaps, if the intended targets are not so passive (see Schools Are Training Second-Graders to Attack Mass Shooters by Deanna Pan posted 3/28/2013 on Mother Jones, bold added for emphasis).

In the aftermath of the massacre at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut, politicians and educators have debated fiercely about how our nation should protect school children—with some schools turning to controversial tactics…

Ever since the 1999 massacre at Columbine High, K-12 schools in many states have been required by law to have emergency management plans; often these include lockdown drills for dealing with a violent intrusion, although such an event is statistically rare

[Greg] Crane [a former SWAT officer and schoolteacher in Texas who created Alert, Lockdown, Inform, Counter, Evacuate—A.L.i.C.E.—to train students what do if a shooter comes into the classroom] points instead to the 1998 shooting at Thurston High School in Oregon, where 15-year-old Kipland Kinkel fired 50 rounds in the cafeteria, killing two students and injuring two dozen others before he was tackled by his classmates…

“It wasn’t a staff member who led the rush against him that took him to the ground and disarmed him. It was a 17-year-old student, Jake Rykar,” Crane notes. “If they had maintained that passive, static posture on the floor, with all those hundreds of kids in the cafeteria, there’s no telling what the outcome could have been that day.”

But Dr. Stephen Brock of the National Association of School Psychologists says teaching such tactics may cause unnecessary anxiety and stress for students, particularly young ones who are more easily traumatized. “It strikes me as an overreaction and potentially dangerous,” Brock says. “School shootings are extremely rare. The odds of a student becoming a victim are 1 in 2.5 million. The odds of getting struck by lightning? One in 700,000.”

Crane says that he has seen an uptick in interest in his program after every mass shooting—but that it has increased by an order of magnitude since Newtown. In the first weekend after the attack, Crane’s company was hit with more than 2,000 email inquiries, he says, with little letup since. To date, according to his company’s website, more than 300 schools and universities have trained 1.6 million students using A.L.i.C.E.

If you ever watched a Friday the 13th movie you’ll see that most victims share one thing in common.  They run, they cringe and they cry but rarely do they fight back.  Even when they do knock Jason down they just keep running away.  Until they eventually become a victim, too.  So there is something to be said about fighting back.  For anyone who walks into an elementary school is as evil as the fictional Jason.  But unlike Jason these shooters can be hurt.  Even scared.  As they always pick people who are unarmed and are not likely to fight back.  Something an unafraid person probably wouldn’t do.

So do you risk traumatizing children by teaching them to fight back?  Or because it is such a statistically rare event is it simply better to do nothing?  Experts in the field of psychology think so.  And if so should we even be bothering with new gun control legislation?  For as the health care professionals say this is an overreaction for an extremely rare event.  And will probably be as useful as teaching second graders to physically attack a gunman.

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Smooth-Bore Musket, Napoleonic Tactics, Rifling, Minié Ball, Percussion Cap, Breech-Loading, Brass Cartridge, Machine Gun and Indirect Fire

Posted by PITHOCRATES - March 14th, 2012

Technology 101

A Muzzle-Loading Smooth-Bore Musket had an Effective Range of about 50-70 Yards and was Slow to Reload

Why do quarterbacks spin the football when throwing a pass?  Because a good spiral will make the football act like a gyroscope.  Stabilizing the ball in the air.  Giving it better aerodynamic stability.  Allowing the quarterback to throw it farther.  Faster.  And more accurately.  In tight traffic.   Threading the needle between defenders.  And into the hands of his receiver.  The quarterback’s target.

But we didn’t confine spinning things to hit targets to only football.  We use it someplace else, too.  And have for quite awhile.  In rifles.  And guns.  Which had a profound impact on the battlefield.  Rifling dates back to the fifteenth century.  But it didn’t really enter the battlefield until the 19th century.  But before we started cutting grooves in rifle barrels to spin projectiles smooth-bore weapons ruled the battlefield.  And shaped the tactics of the day.  What we generally call Napoleonic tactics.  Mastered by Napoleon Bonaparte.  But used before him.  When we used large formations of soldiers on the battlefield.  That we moved in formation thanks to intense drilling and discipline.

A smooth-bore musket had an effective range of about 50-70 yards.  Or little longer than an NFL quarterback could throw a football.  They weren’t extremely accurate because the ball they fired was smaller than the barrel.  Which let the ball bounce off the walls of the barrels before exiting.  So they didn’t always fly perfectly straight.  Also, because the ball was smaller than the barrel there was blow-by of the expanding gasses that forced the ball out of the barrel.  Reducing the muzzle velocity of the weapon.  These muzzle-loading weapons were also slow to reload.  They required many steps to reload after firing.  Taking some 15 to seconds for a good infantryman to reload.  While standing up in the middle of the field of battle.  This short effective range and slow reloading time led to the Napoleonic tactics.  Maneuvering large formations of infantry into long lines.  Where they stood shoulder-to-shoulder to concentrate their fire.  They moved in formation to within effective range of the enemy and fired on command to hit the opposing line of soldiers with a large volley of fire.  When they reloaded opposing cavalry tried to charge their line to break up their formation before they could fire again.  If the infantry brought down effective fire on the opposing line of infantry they might break the enemy’s ranks.  If so, cavalry would charge to route them off the battlefield.  If not, the infantry would close ranks with the enemy after a few volleys and charge with fixed bayonets.  If a wall of approaching gleaming steel bayonets did not break the enemy’s ranks the lines came to gather and they engaged in hand to hand combat.

A Rifled Musket firing the Minié Ball increased the Effective Range of the Infantryman to about 300 Yards

Smooth-bore muskets gave way to rifled muskets.  Which helped with accuracy.  But didn’t make much difference on the battlefield.  Until Claude-Étienne Minié developed a new conical shaped bullet with a hollow base.  The Minié ball.  Made from soft lead it expanded when fired.  The expanding gases pressing the base of the Minié ball into the grooved barrel of a rifle.  Preventing the gas blow-by.  And imparting a spin on the bullet.  Greatly increasing the effective range of an infantryman’s rifle.  Approximately 4 times the range of the smooth-bore musket.  Which meant you could be 4 times as far away from the enemy and still be able to hit your target.  So instead of about a half of a football field you could hit an enemy reliably from 3 football fields away.  Also, they delivered these new bullets to the infantryman wrapped in a paper cartridge that also included gunpowder.  The soldier bit off the end of the cartridge, poured the premeasured amount of powder into the muzzle, followed by the Minié ball, rammed it home and placed a percussion cap (a small metal cap with a shock-sensitive explosive in it) on a hollow nipple above the packed powder.  When the infantryman pulled the trigger the hammer fell on the percussion cap.  This ignition source then spread through the nipple to the packed powder in the barrel.  Igniting the powder.  Expanding the soft lead of the base.  Pushing it and spinning it out of the barrel.  A soft, fat projectile.  That when it found its mark made big holes.  Tore through muscle.  And shattered bone.  Most wounds in the chest or abdomen were fatal.  Wounds in arm or a leg usually resulted with the amputation of that limb.

These were great advancements in weaponry.  Making the infantryman a much more powerful and lethal force on the battlefield.  If used in battle with the proper tactics.  Unfortunately, when armies first used the new Minié ball rifle they still used Napoleonic tactics.  Europeans in the Crimean War (1853 –1856).  And the Americans in the Civil War (1861–1865).  The first modern wars.  That killed hundreds of thousands of soldiers.  About 600,000 each.  And maimed more.  Because they still fought shoulder to shoulder.  Marching forward under a hail of long-range and accurate enemy fire.  Of soft, fat projectiles.  That just decimated their ranks.  Soon the Americans learned to build fortified defensive positions.  On the high ground.  And let the enemy attack them.  Because an offensive attack against a fortified defensive position proved suicidal.  As Union soldiers learned.  So before some of the later battles these soldiers invented something that became standard issue in following wars.  The dog tag.  So someone could identify them after they died in combat.  So their families could bury them at home.  These fortified defensive positions evolved into trenches.  Such as used during the Siege of Petersburg.  A siege because offensive attacks against infantry in a trench proved suicidal.  A lesson, sadly, that few learned.

By the end of the Civil War the tactics finally caught up to the technology.  Napoleonic tactics were out.  And modern war was in.  Infantry didn’t mass on the field of battle.  Resplendent in their uniform behind their colors.  Instead they were filthy and firing from behind cover.  And battles weren’t a Sunday afternoon in the park.  But lasted days.  Where soldiers often went hungry.  Endured constant shelling.   And kept their heads down for fear of snipers.  Also, it was now total war.  War against the soldiers in the field.  And the resources that kept them in the field.  Rail lines.  Telegraph lines.  Factories.  Ports and harbors.  Food supplies.  And even the morale of the enemy combatant’s citizens.  Because attacks against all of these made it difficult to continue to wage war.  Which ultimately shortened war.  But making war truly hell.  And most cruel.  But hopefully ending it quicker and saving lives in the long run.

The Brass Cartridge with Bullet and Percussion Cap allowed Breech-Loading and much higher Rates of Fire 

There are a lot of lessons to learn from the Crimean War.  And the American Civil War.  Which they quickly forgot by 1914.  With the outbreak of World War I.  Where combatants went off in the spirit of a Napoleonic war.  Resplendent in their colors.  Full of patriotic fervor.  But not for long.  For in this most modern of all wars to date they still foolishly massed infantry on the field of battle.  And attacked fortified defensive positions.  A war that still used horses for cavalry charges.  Despite massive advancements in technology.  Like breech-loading rifles that fired ammunition consisting of a bullet pressed into a brass cartridge full of gunpowder.  Also pressed into this cartridge was a percussion cap.  Making a self-contained round.  That they could press into a clip or a magazine.  Which could be loaded into a rifle while lying down behind cover.  Greatly increasing the rate of fire.  Without having to expose the rifleman to enemy fire.  These new cartridges could also be loaded into canvas belts.  And fed into a new weapon.  The machine gun.  A horrific killing machine in WWI.  Where a gun crew could maintain a rate of fire great enough to wipe out companies of infantry at a time.  Who were foolishly advancing over open ground against an entrenched defensive position.  As if the Crimean and American Civil War never happened.

Artillery was bigger and more accurate, too.  And unlike their Civil War ancestors, you didn’t have to see what you were firing at.  Artillery batteries could be miles from the battlefield.  Out of sight of the enemy.  Instead aiming at them with geometry and maps.  By calculating azimuth (left and right) and elevation angles (up and down) to adjust the gun for an accurate but indirect fire.  Forward observers used new electronic communication to adjust this indirect fire onto target.  Breech-loading and recoil dampening devices (also unlike their civil war ancestors where the recoil threw the cannon backwards) made these not only rapid firing but accurate.  Raining hell down on that advancing line of infantry advancing into a hail of machine gun fire.  Meaning that when the order was given to go over the top of their safe (but miserable) trenches to assault the enemy’s trenches many would die.  Giving the huge death toll of World War I.  Where some 10 million combatants died.

WWI is perhaps the greatest man-made disaster in history.  And not just for the horrific death toll.  But what that death toll did.  WWI changed the world.  Not just the lines on the map.  But the very nature of nations.  The size of governments.  And economics.  Not because of the advancing technology.  But for the misunderstanding, and misuse of, that technology.  Because for some fifty years their tactics played catch up to the technology of the day.  Which, sadly, is more of the rule than the exception.  Because it’s senior military personnel that make policy.  And these generals are still planning to fight the last war.  Instead of the next war.

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