Baby Boom causes new Short-Term Cost Pressures for NHS but offers Long-Term Hope

Posted by PITHOCRATES - November 17th, 2012

Week in Review

Now that President Obama won reelection and the Democrats retained the Senate Obamacare is here to stay.  Unless something happens in the 2014 midterm elections that turns Congress over to the Republicans with supermajorities that will allow them other ways to defund or otherwise shutdown Obamacare.  Or the states stand together on their end and refuse to implement Obamacare.  But unless these things happen Obamacare is here to stay.  Perhaps one day evolving into a full blown national health care system.  Which they designed it to do.  By putting in requirements that encourage employers to drop health care.  Opening the door for the government to step in to save the day from the health care crisis they created.

So what will life be like under Obamacare?  Start following what’s happening in the British National Health Service (NHS).  And you’ll get an idea of what national health care is like (see New baby boom to put ‘enormous’ strain on NHS by Stephen Adams posted 11/12/2012 on The Telegraph).

In the first three months of this year alone, 4,600 more babies were born than during the same period last year, according to official figures

Midwives are warning that the trend is continuing and will swell births to more than 700,000 in England this year – the first time that level has been reached since 1971.

Birth rates have been on the rise for a decade, due principally to immigration, with the number growing by about 12,000 a year…

Professor Cathy Warwick, chief executive of the Royal College of Midwives, said the increase was putting “enormous” strain on the NHS…

Before David Cameron came to power, he promised another 3,000 midwives across the NHS, but to date only an extra 900 have been employed.

The RCM is arguing another 5,000 are needed across England, to keep pace with the rising number of births…

A recent RCM poll of more than 2,000 midwives found nine in 10 did not feel they could give women all the care and support they needed.

A lack of midwives has been cited as one reason for the high proportion of caesareans in Britain, with mothers sometimes opting for surgery to avoid repeating a traumatic first birth.

The NHS is struggling to slash its budget.  For before this current baby boom birthrates had been falling after the establishment of the NHS.  Shrinking the tax base.  And the funding for the NHS.  At a time when people were living longer thanks to advances in health care.  So the NHS finds itself chronically underfunded thanks to that shrinking tax base.  And overburdened by more elderly people living longer after retirement consuming a lot of health care resources.  Which is why the NHS relies on midwives to deliver babies.  Often in the mother’s home.  To relieve the hospital of an enormous expense of handling something so mundane and routine as delivering a baby.  Midwives are a way to cut costs.  Without sacrificing quality health care.  As most births proceed without any complications.  When there are complications they take the mother to a hospital.

Midwives help the NHS spread their limited resources over as many people as possible.  Much like the quasi death panel Liverpool Care Pathway.  By encouraging people to let their loved dies instead of trying to prolong their lives with costly health care resources.  Of course, the NHS is currently revising their constitution to make sure those decisions are based on the patient’s best interests and not the hospital’s bottom line.

And speaking of bottom lines there is nothing like a baby boom to solve a government-funded organization’s chronic underfunding.  Because babies become taxpayers.  When they join the workforce.  And if they sustain this baby boom long enough it may bring the age of the British population down.  By having more people entering the workforce than leaving it.  Provided there are jobs for them when they are ready to enter the workforce.  So a rising population growth rate can’t fix all of their problems alone.  They also need a business-friendly environment that will create jobs to employ these new taxpayers.

Of course you know what will happen then.  After the baby boom creates a tax revenue boom the government will make more spending obligations it won’t be able to meet once their population ages again.  And they will be right back where they started from.  Only the spending obligations will be greater the next time around.  And here lies the problem.  It’s the spending that is the problem.  Always has been.  And always will be.  If governments stopped spending themselves into these kinds of messes they wouldn’t have these problems to begin with.  And the Americans have just given themselves a spending obligation that will create the mother of all messes.  Obamacare.  And whatever it will evolve into.  For the US has about 5 times the population of the UK.  So its cost pressures will probably be 5 times what the NHS is feeling.  Or more.  So the Americans can expect midwives to replace the maternity wards their mothers gave birth in.  And a Liverpool Care Pathway quasi death panel.  Why?  Because if the British couldn’t avoid these things than it isn’t likely the Americans will with 5 times the cost pressures.

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