The fall in Unemployment Insurance Claims due to Bureaucratic Incompetence, not Economic Improvement

Posted by PITHOCRATES - October 13th, 2012

Week in Review

No president since FDR has ever won reelection with the unemployment rate about 8%.  Which is a problem for President Obama.  For except January of 2009, unemployment has never been below 8% throughout his presidency.  So you can understand how ecstatic the Obama camp was with the September unemployment rate coming in at 7.8%.  And why many in the Romney camp are wondering about the validity of those unemployment numbers.  Because the other economic news is not that good.  Which has caused some people to wonder if the Obama administration is cooking the numbers with the election coming up next month.  Because no president since FDR has ever won reelection with an unemployment rate about 8% (see What Caused Drop in Unemployment Insurance Claims? by James Sherk posted 10/12/2012 on The Foundry).

The news that new Unemployment Insurance (UI) claims dropped sharply to 339,000 last week has raised eyebrows—and aroused suspicion the Department of Labor had massaged the numbers. In truth, there is both more and less to this story than meets the eye. The numbers are incomplete, but because of bureaucratic incompetence, not a grand conspiracy.

The Department of Labor releases information each week on the number of Americans newly filing for UI benefits. These figures shed light on the state of the economy: anything above 400,000 indicates recession territory, while figures below 330,000 show strong economic growth. Since the start of the year around 370,000 Americans have filed for benefits each week—below recessionary levels but still weak. The reported drop would indicate a sharp improvement in the job market.

Except it does not. As the Department of Labor has explained, today’s figures are incomplete. One large state (identified elsewhere as California) did not get all their numbers into the Labor Department on time…

Next week this process will reverse…

Neither this week’s large drop nor next week’s impending jump in UI claims say anything about the state of the economy. They only show that large government bureaucracy’s often cannot get their act together.

So the drop in Unemployment Insurance (UI) claims is not a drop.  The numbers are just incomplete.  And will be corrected next week.  The inaccuracy is due to bureaucratic incompetence.  And not a conspiracy to make the employment picture look better for an embattled president trying to win reelection.  Of course it begs the following question.  Was there bureaucratic incompetence in the September unemployment rate?  In an effort to get the unemployment rate below 8% to help President Obama’s reelection chances?

Such an incompetency, if it existed in the unemployment rate as it did in the new Unemployment Insurance (UI) claims number, would certainly help his chances of reelection.  Especially when this was the last reported monthly unemployment rate before the presidential election.  How lucky for the president that the one time his Labor Department had made a mistake, if they did in fact make a mistake, it’s a mistake in his favor at the best possible time for a mistake.  For the Labor Department will issue the next monthly unemployment rate about a day or two after the election.  Lucky indeed.

Unlucky in domestic and foreign policy but lucky in bureaucratic incompetence.  Will it be enough to help sway those undecided who would not have voted for President Obama had the unemployment rate not fallen below 8% before the election?  Possibly.  Time will tell.

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Student falls down Stairs after Binge Drinking then Dies while Waiting for Treatment at NHS Hospital

Posted by PITHOCRATES - October 13th, 2012

Week in Review

Here are two sad stories in one.  Another senseless death due to stupid behavior of our young.  And how the NHS let this kid die from his stupid behavior (see Student, 18, ‘downed a bottle of rum in 15 MINUTES for a bet before falling to his death down a flight of stairs’ by Emily Andrews and Ben Spencer posted 10/11/2012 on the Daily Mail).

Timothy Jarvis, 18, was in the first week of his maths degree when he downed an entire bottle of rum in 15 minutes for a bet.

The former grammar school boy then suffered fatal head injuries after tumbling down a flight of stairs at his university’s hall of residence.

Despite being taken to hospital, it was 90 minutes before he was assessed by a doctor and he died the next day.

How many of us did something as stupid as this in our youth?  Only we were lucky enough not to have killed ourselves?  And I stress the word ‘lucky’.  Binge drinking.  This is poor decision making.  Poor understanding of the consequences of our actions.  And a poor understanding of what’s important in life.  This student had a promising future.  He was not in university taking the easy courses just to party.  He was taking one of the hard degrees.  Who knows what he would have contributed to make the world a better place.  What a senseless waste.

As a side note, these are the people that often swing elections.  The youth vote.  Who have a propensity for poor decision making.  That’s why in most of the United States we don’t let these kids drink until after they turn 21.  Put severe limits on them when they start driving.  And charge them the highest car insurance rates.  Because of their consistent poor decision making.  Yet when they walk into the voting booth the Left would have us believe that they are the wisest and the most responsible people in the world.  Because they vote for the party of birth control and abortion.  And the party that is more inclined to decriminalize marijuana.  Everything a growing young person wants to make life as fun as possible.  While discarding the possible consequences of their actions.  But doing things their parents warn them not to do often comes with consequences.  While their votes often saddle the nation with the consequences of their foolish actions inside the voting booth.  For the majority of people have issues that are more important to them than birth control, abortion and marijuana.

When paramedics arrived and found Mr Jarvis unconscious, they made a ‘red alert’ call to Colchester Hospital to warn them to expect a serious case.

But when they arrived at 12.35am, there was no trauma team to meet them, Mr Jarvis was left on a trolley in a corridor and was not assessed by a doctor for nearly 90 minutes.

NHS guidelines say every patient should be examined by a nurse within 15 minutes and by a doctor within an hour.

Imagine that.  A hospital with an emergency department without a trauma team standing ready.  If you’re wondering what the future of Obamacare is here it is.  Cost cutting, long wait times and service rationing that leaves an emergency department at a hospital without a trauma team at the ready.  And who helped pass Obamacare into law?  That’s right.  The youth vote.  Who voted for Barack Obama in droves.  Yet another example of poor decision making.  That the rest of us will have to live with the consequences of their actions.

If we have age restrictions on drinking because the young are just not mature enough to drink at such a young age perhaps we should have an age restriction on voting.  Letting young people vote only after they are mature enough to understand how to drink responsibly.  Unless they’re serving in the military.  Which should be the only exception due to their service to the country.  And the incredible amount of discipline they acquire through their military training.

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India’s Keynesian Policies may cause S&P to downgrade their Credit Rating

Posted by PITHOCRATES - October 13th, 2012

Week in Review

Monetary policy can be confusing.  Especially when the Keynesians start talking about it.  Bunch of policy wonks.  Pushing a defective ideology.  For it doesn’t do anything they say it will do.  Excessive government spending, and deficit spending, rarely ends well.  It only leads to larger debts, weaker growth and price inflation.  Wherever Keynesians try their policies (see Significant chance of cutting India rating in future: S&P by Neha Dasgupta and Swati Bhat posted 10/10/2012 on Reuters).

India still faced a one-in-three chance of a over the next 24 months, Standard & Poor’s said, although a series of reform steps launched in September had slightly improved the country’s prospects…

“Weaker-than-expected tax receipts, owing to weaker economic growth, and higher-than-budgeted subsidies are the main reasons behind it,” S&P said, referring to its deficit outlook.

The high deficit is counteracting the central bank’s efforts to control demand-driven price pressures, while the government’s use of domestic savings to finance the deficit is crowding out private investment and lowering growth prospects.

Governments tend to increase their spending during good economic times.  Because they can.  The problem is that good economic times don’t always last.  And when the economy tanks so do tax receipts.  Leaving the government with spending obligations that they no longer can afford to pay.  So they borrow more.  Run larger deficits.  And expand the money supply by lowering interest rates.  Which leads to, of course, price inflation.  And, finally, that oft asked question.  Is debt really anything to worry about when we owe money to ourselves?  Yes.  For when the government sells bonds to finance deficit spending it pulls investment capital from the private sector.  Where business owners could have used it to create economic activity.  And jobs.

So never be fooled by Keynesians and their rosy projections of economic growth.  For their policies hinder economic growth.  And cause credit downgrades.  Everywhere they’re tried.

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The Left goes after the Youth Vote before they Grow Up and Become Responsible

Posted by PITHOCRATES - October 13th, 2012

Week in Review

The Left always urges kids to vote the moment they turn 18.  That it’s important they exercise their right to vote.  Because their views and opinions are important.  Because they haven’t become corrupted or jaded yet by politics.  We need to listen to the young.  Because they are our future.  And not a bunch of doddering old people who vote just to protect their bank accounts, their homes, their children and their country.  No, these people are just too old and blind to the progressive needs of our country.  Maybe they knew what was important in their youth but they’re completely out of touch today.  And therefore we need the young to help us move the nation forward.  For they may be young but they’re smart, responsible and in touch with the important issues of the day (see Investigators suspect teen in fatal LI crash was ‘high’ by KIERAN CROWLEY, ERIN CALABRESE and DAN MANGAN posted 10/9/2012 on the New York Post).

Joseph Beer, 17, “was driving way too fast” right before the spectacular crash at about 3:40 a.m. yesterday on the Southern State Parkway in Nassau County, a law-enforcement source said.

Authorities suspect Beer “was high” at the time the his new 2012 Subaru STI slid across a section of the highway known as Dead Man’s Curve and went sailing into a group of trees — totaling the car and ejecting all five people inside, the source said.

Only Beer survived — but killed instantly were his four recently graduated classmates from Richmond Hill HS in Queens, all of whom were 18 years old…

Because Beer only had a learner’s permit, he was barred from driving between 9 p.m. and 5 a.m., from driving without a licensed 21-year-old driver in the car to supervise him, and from carrying any passengers under age 21 who were family members.

There but for the grace of God go I.  We’ve all done stupid things in our youth.  Despite things like this happening to someone we know or to someone in our community.  But we are so stupid in our youth that we continue to do stupid things.  Which is why we can’t drink until we’re 21.  And can’t drive after 9 PM without a licensed 21-year-old (or older) driver to help us stop doing stupid things.  But as much as we try to stop these stupid things from happening they do.  Which is why car insurance is so expensive for young drivers.  Because of the stupid things we do in our youth.

Had it not been for the youth vote Barak Obama would not have won the 2008 election.  But if they’re not mature enough to drink until they’re 21 perhaps they’re not mature enough to vote either.  President Obama’s Keynesian policies have devastated the economy.  They caused a credit downgrade for the first time in history.  We have had record trillion dollar deficits in each year of his presidency.  We have a record debt thanks to his deficits.  His stimulus bill rewarded campaign contributors while creating no ‘shovel ready’ jobs.  His bailout of GM and Chrysler did what a normal bankruptcy filing would have done only without screwing the bond holders and giving the company to the UAW to bail out their pension plan while leaving the same structure in place that prevented them from selling vehicles profitably in the first place.  His investments in green energy rewarded campaign contributors instead of creating jobs of the future.  His attacks on oil have raised the price of gasoline and food.  And his attack on coal is setting up the country for an energy future of rolling blackouts and outages.

A lot of old people understand this because they have experienced a lot of this before.  They lived through the disaster of the Carter presidency.  And the Morning in America of Ronald Reagan.  They know that the pro-business policies of Warren Harding/Calvin Coolidge, JFK, Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush produced both economic growth and increased tax revenue.  And they’ve already lived through a decline in American Exceptionalism once during the Seventies and don’t want to live through it again now.  Especially those who immigrated to the United States for a better life.  And they’re seeing it decline again right before their eyes thanks to excessive government spending and attacks on success.  Old people see this.  They’ve experienced it.  Which is why they vote the way they vote.  Not for promises of free birth control or access to unlimited abortion services.  Or the decriminalization of marijuana.  Issues that weigh heavily on the minds of young voters.  Which the Left knows.  And exploits.  Which is how they got Barack Obama elected.  And put the nation into the precarious position it is now in.

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The Taliban shoot a 14 Year Old Pakistani Girl in the Head because she is Anti-Taliban and Secular

Posted by PITHOCRATES - October 13th, 2012

Week in Review

After the attack on the American embassy in Benghazi and the assassination of the America ambassador as well as three other Americans President Obama, Secretary of State Hilary Clinton, UN Ambassador Susan Rice and other members of the Obama administration blamed a spontaneous uprising in response to a YouTube video.  They all dismissed this as an act of terrorism.  Despite it happening on the anniversary of the worse terrorist attack on the Untied States.  9/11.  Because with the killing of Osama bin Laden President Obama had for all intents and purposes said the war on terrorism was over.  And that he won it.  So there was no need to increase security in Benghazi, a hot spot for al Qaeda activity.  Despite the Americans in Benghazi asking for additional security.

President Obama constantly told the Muslim world that they were not our enemy.  That it was only al Qaeda.  And the Taliban.  The president has gone out of his way to appease the Muslim world.  When a Muslim attacked Americans at Fort Hood President Obama refused to call it an act of terrorism.  Calling it a case of workplace violence.  Even though the shooter, Major Hasan, had a growing interest in violent Islamist extremism before the shooting.  Others had even complained about this.  But they were ignored.  To show, it would appear, how far we would go not to show any bias towards Muslims in America.

President Obama was sure the only reason why some in the Muslim world hated America was because of what George W. Bush did.  He inflamed the Muslim world by invading Muslim countries.  And with all of his ‘war on terrorism’ and ‘Islamist extremist’ rhetoric.  President Obama could change all of that by simply being nice to those who would want to harm us.  But the problem is it’s not America they hate.  Or George W. Bush.  They hate the freedom and liberties we have in the West.  Especially the freedoms western women enjoy (see Outcry over Pakistan attack on activist Malala Yousafza, 14 posted 10/9/2012 on BBC News Asia).

An attack by Taliban gunmen in north-west Pakistan that wounded a 14-year-old who campaigned for girls’ rights has caused an outcry in the country.

Malala Yousafzai was shot in the head on her way home from school in Mingora, the main town in the Swat Valley…

A Pakistani Taliban spokesman told the BBC they carried out the attack.

Ehsanullah Ehsan told BBC Urdu that they attacked her because she was anti-Taliban and secular, adding that she would not be spared.

Malala Yousafzai came to public attention in 2009 by writing a diary for BBC Urdu about life under Taliban militants who had taken control of the valley…

The Taliban captured the Swat Valley in late 2007 and remained in de facto control until they were driven out by Pakistani military forces during an offensive in 2009.

While in power they closed girls’ schools, promulgated Sharia law and introduced measures such as banning the playing of music in cars.

This girl was not an American.  She was not British.  She was a Pakistani who just wanted to do what girls in the West can do.  Go to school.  But for having such ‘unnatural’ desires the Taliban shot her in the head.  More than a year after President Obama ended the war against Islamist extremism with the killing of Osama bin Laden.

You want to talk about a war on women?  This is a real war on women.  Where girls get shot for wanting to go to school.  How does this compare to expecting American women to buy their own birth control?

You can’t make your enemies like you.  For they don’t like you for being who you are.  And that will never change.  Unless we stop being who we are.  And stop enjoying the freedoms and liberties we enjoy in the western world.  As some women on the Left are outraged that they have to buy their own birth control I doubt they’re going to give up their freedoms and live like our enemies would want them to live.  Nor should they.  No, a sign of weakness is not making our enemies like us.  It is only emboldening them.

Let them hate us.  But don’t let them hurt us.  Peace through strength.  The Ronald Reagan way.  It’s the only thing those who want to push others around understand.  Strength.

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