Hurricane Forecasters admit that they have no Forecasting Skills

Posted by PITHOCRATES - December 17th, 2011

Week in Review

The hurricane forecasters have come clean.  They’re not good at forecasting (see Hurricane experts admit they can’t predict hurricanes early; December forecasts too unreliable by Tom Spears posted 12/13/2011 on The Ottawa Citizen).

Two top U.S. hurricane forecasters, famous across Deep South hurricane country, are quitting the practice of making a seasonal forecast in December because it doesn’t work.

William Gray and Phil Klotzbach say a look back shows their past 20 years of forecasts had no predictive value.

The two scientists from Colorado State University will still discuss different probabilities of hurricane seasons in December. But the shift signals how far humans are, even with supercomputers, from truly knowing what our weather will do in the long run…

“We are discontinuing our early December quantitative hurricane forecast for the next year … Our early December Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill even though the hindcast studies on which they were based had considerable skill.”

Imagine that.  Those responsible for forecasting all that doom and gloom because of man-made global warming have admitted that their forecasting skills suck.  Which means all of those models for man-made global warming must suck, too.

It turns out that climate is just too complex to reduce to a computer model.  Making hurricane forecasting 6 months in advance impossible.  And if they can’t forecast hurricanes accurately 6 months into the future than they can’t forecast climate, either.  Meaning all those dire predictions of rising sea levels and melting polar icecaps was just made up for political purposes.

The only thing man-made about global warming is the politics behind it.  So governments that financed this ‘science’ can tax and regulate industry.  To refill government coffers everywhere suffering from huge budget deficits.


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