Keynesian Policies gave us the Subprime Mortgage Crisis, Solyndra and Inflation while the Free Market gives us Jobs
The Problem with Washington is that there are too many Elitists who Think they are Smarter than Us
Now we know why we have slow economic growth. Apparently it’s par for the course after a financial crisis (see Phony Fear Factor by Paul Krugman, Keynesian Economist, posted 9/29/2011 on The New York Times).
We might add that major financial crises are almost always followed by a period of slow growth, and U.S. experience is more or less what you should have expected given the severity of the 2008 shock.
So why do any spending? Why have any stimulus to stimulate growth that won’t come. Because “major financial crises are almost always followed by a period of slow growth…” If true then we could have gotten here without that $800 billion stimulus bill. And we could have avoided that debt ceiling debate. And the subsequent downgrading of U.S. sovereign debt. All because we were spending money trying to alter slow growth that was going to happen anyway.
But the Keynesian will say, “Just think how bad things would have been if we didn’t spend that $800 billion. And how better things would be if we had just spent more.” How do you argue with that? When spending fails it’s because we didn’t spend enough. By this logic, then, spending as a policy can never fail. Even when it fails.
If slow growth is more or less what you get were they then lying? When they said they would keep the unemployment rate below 8%? If Congress passed the stimulus bill? Or did they just not understand how bad things were? Because their understanding of economics is that bad? Or was George W. Bush so much smarter than them that he was able to hide how bad things were?
And it also, of course, reflects the political need of the right to make everything bad in America President Obama’s fault. Never mind the fact that the housing bubble, the debt explosion and the financial crisis took place on the watch of a conservative, free-market-praising president; it’s that Democrat in the White House now who gets the blame.
But good politics can be very bad policy. The truth is that we’re in this mess because we had too little regulation, not too much. And now one of our two major parties is determined to double down on the mistakes that caused the disaster.
Who was it that pushed subprime lending to get people who couldn’t afford a house into a house? Whose policies were those that made home ownership available to everyone, not just those with good-paying jobs that could pay their mortgage payments? Who was it that brought suits and protests against lenders for ‘redlining’ poor and minority communities by not approving mortgages for those who could not qualify for a mortgage? The Republicans? The so-called servants of the wealthy? Or the Democrats? The so-called champion of the poor and disenfranchised?
Buying risky mortgages from banks allowed banks to make risky loans. And who was buying those risky mortgages? Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. That was government policy. Keynesian policy. Keeping interest rates low and removing risks from the normal risk takers in the mortgage industry. There could not have been a Subprime Mortgage Crisis without these Keynesian government policies in place. And we know that conservative Republicans aren’t Keynesians. That’s why Keynesians hate conservative Republicans. Especially when they hold up further stimulus spending in Congress.
The problem with Washington is that there are too many elitists who think they are smarter than us. And these elitists want to double down on the mistakes that caused this crisis. Already the Obama administration has been talking about boosting subprime lending. Incredible. This after that very same policy caused the worst recession since the Great Depression.
After the Benefit of a Cheap Euro runs its Course the Depreciated Euro turns into a Liability
The Keynesian’s answer to everything is more spending. And when someone warns about igniting inflation with all of their easy monetary policy they call those people misinformed. Monetary policy doesn’t cause inflation. Greedy business people do. By raising prices. And supply shocks. Like the OPEC oil embargo of the Seventies. They point to the Eurozone and say, “See? Their central banks have been keeping rates low to stimulate spending. And where is the inflation?” Here, apparently (see Euro-Zone Inflation Surges by Paul Hannon, Dow Jones Newswires, posted 9/30/2011 on NASDAQ).
The annual rate of inflation in the 17 countries that share the euro surged to its highest level in almost three years in September, while the number of people without work fell slightly.
The European Union’s official statistics agency Eurostat Friday said consumer prices rose 3% in the 12 months to September, up from 2.5% in August and was well above the European Central Bank’s target of just below 2%.
Prices rose faster than at any time since October 2008, and more rapidly than economists had expected. Those surveyed last week by Dow Jones Newswires had estimated that prices rose 2.5%. The last rise in the annual rate from one month to the next that was of a similar scale was in March 2010, when it picked up to 1.6% from 0.8%.
With a depressed economy businesses haven’t been able to raise their prices. But what they couldn’t do their central bank has. Put so much cheap money into the economy that they depreciated the Euro. Which is another way to cause inflation. Eventually. After the benefits of a cheap Euro (making cheap exports) run its course. And the depreciated Euro turns into a liability (higher input prices in the manufacturing process).
This always happens in Keynesian economics. Yet the Keynesian ignores this reality and doubles down on the failed policies of the past.
Government Policies Favor Green Energy over Oil and Gas because Government Elitists are in Control
Keynesian economic thought is the prevailing though in most governments. For a reason. They’re expansionary policies. And put government in control of that expansion. Government officials don’t care if they work. They just like the power it gives them. The control over the economy. And an open checkbook to buy votes. So governments everywhere put Keynesians into their administrations. Which give the Keynesians legitimacy. People accept what they say. Because if government adopts what they say they must know what they’re saying.
But Keynesian thought is wrong. History has shown this. The Austrian School of economics has a far better track record of success. But that is not a popular school among expansionists. Because it leaves the economy to the free market. Not to elitists in government. Who think they know better than the free market.
An example of this elitist intervention into the free market is government’s choice of green energy as the smart investment of the future. Which has been failing even with heavy subsidies. While the hated oil and gas industry, on the other hand, is creating jobs (see Gassing Up: Why America’s Future Job Growth Lies In Traditional Energy Industries by Joel Kotkin posted 9/27/2011 on Forbes).
But the biggest growth by far has taken place in the mining, oil and natural gas industries, where jobs expanded by 60%, creating a total of 500,000 new jobs…
Nor is this expansion showing signs of slowing down. Contrary to expectations pushed by “peak oil” enthusiasts, overall U.S. oil production has grown by 10% since 2008; the import share of U.S. oil consumption has dropped to 47% from 60% in 2005. Over the next year, according to one recent industry-funded study, oil and gas could create an additional 1.5 million new jobs.
What makes this growth even more remarkable is that the month of August posted zero new jobs. So if there were no new jobs while oil and gas was creating hundreds of thousands of jobs, hundreds of thousands of jobs in other industries must have been disappearing. Such as in that government-backed green energy sector.
How about those “green jobs” so widely touted as the way to recover the lost blue-collar positions from the recession? Since 2006, the critical waste management and remediation sector — a critical portion of the “green” economy — actually lost over 480,000 jobs, 4% of its total employment…
The future of the rest of the “green” sector seems dimmer than widely anticipated. One big problem lies in cost per kilowatt, where wind is roughly twice as expensive and solar at least three times as expensive as electricity produced with natural gas. Given the Solyndra bankruptcy and their inevitable impact on the renewables industry, it’s also pretty certain that the U.S., at least in the near term, will not be powered by windmills and solar panels.
Natural gas is a clean burning fuel. It’s so clean we use it in our homes. In our stoves. And our furnaces. It’s cheap. And it’s plentiful. We’re getting it out of American ground that can put hundreds of thousands of Americans to work. Without loan guarantees. And they can bring it to market at market prices. Without any subsidies. It’s the hanging softball of energy policy. But what are we pursuing? Green energy. A sector that is bleeding jobs.
The relative strength of the energy sector can be seen in changes in income by region over the past decade. For the most part, the largest gains have been heavily concentrated in the energy belt between the Dakotas and the Gulf of Mexico. Energy-oriented metropolitan economies such as Houston, Dallas, Bismarck and Oklahoma City have also fared relatively well. In energy-rich North Dakota there’s actually a huge labor shortage, reaching over 17,000 — one likely to get worse if production expands, as now proposed, from 6000 to over 30,000 wells over the next decade.
Why are we subsidizing green startups when we have an energy belt almost the size of the Louisiana Territory? A labor shortage of 17,000? And a plan to increase wells from 6,000 to 30,000 (an increase of 400%) in one state? This is real economic growth. Created with no government help. I mean, if there is one thing the Obama administration isn’t known for it’s being a friend to the oil and gas industry.
So this is an industry government doesn’t help. If anything government hinders it with heavy regulation. And yet the gas and oil industry is blowing government-subsidized green energy away. There’s a lesson here. Free market works. And when government intervenes into the market you can bet on them picking a loser.
Industry experts say that the shift in energy exploration is moving from the Middle East to the Americas, with rich deposits of oil and gas uncovered from Brazil to the Canadian oil sands.
Much of the new action is on the U.S. mainland, including the Dakotas, Montana and Wyoming. Increasingly, there’s excitement about finds in long-challenged sections of the Midwest such as Ohio. The Utica shale formation, according to an estimate by Chesapeake Energy, could be worth roughly a half trillion dollars and be, in the words of CEO Aubrey McClendon, “the biggest to hit Ohio, since maybe the plow.”
Ohio now has over 64,000 wells, with five hundred drilled just year. Recent and potential finds, particularly in the Appalachian basin, could transform the Buckeye State into something of a Midwest Abu Dhabi, creating more than 200,000 jobs over the next decade.
A Midwest Abu Dhabi? Creating 200,000 new jobs? And that’s just in the oil and gas business.
The energy boom also has sparked a spate of new factory expansions, including a $650 million new steel mill to make pipes for gas pipelines. Other local firms are gearing up to make up specialized equipment like compressors.
This is real economic growth. Created and sustained by the private sector. Without any stimulus funding or subsidies. The way of the Austrian School of economics. But is anathema to expansionist Keynesians. That’s why government policies favor green energy. Like they favored subprime lending. Because government elitists are in control. Not the free market.
The Genius Elite have given us the Subprime Mortgage Crisis, Solyndra and Inflation in the Eurozone
The government bet wrong on green energy. As smart as they are. And as smart as their Keynesian advisers are. Is there a lesson here? Yes. They are not that smart.
The oil and gas industry is booming. Why? Because there is enormous demand for oil and gas. For all the Keynesians’ lament over the lack of demand you’d think they’d jump on this. But no. They ignore it. Instead they impose oppressive regulations. Impose moratoriums on Gulf drilling. And do more to impede this industry than to help it. To please the environmentalists. And their friends in green energy.
The genius elite have given us the Subprime Mortgage Crisis, Solyndra and inflation in the Eurozone. The Keynesian way. Whereas the free market is finding domestic sources of real energy and creating jobs. The Austrian School way. Which was also the American way. Once upon a time. And it can be again. If we listen more to the market. And less to the Keynesian elites.
Tags: Austrian school, central bank, cheap Euro, demand, Democrats, depreciated Euro, easy monetary policy, economic growth, Economics, economy, energy, Energy Policy, Euro, Eurozone, financial crisis, free market, gas, green energy, inflation, jobs, Keynesian, Keynesian policies, monetary policy, mortgage, natural gas, oil, oil and gas, prices, recession, regulations, Republicans, risky loans, risky mortgages, Solyndra, spending, stimulus, stimulus bill, subprime, subprime lending, subprime mortgage crisis, supply shocks, Washington